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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's


jaster220

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Per global models, we're within 120 hrs of Precip breaking out in the West end of the forum so it's time to kick-off this disco/tracking thread for what appears to be yet another very dynamic system in the new LRC!

 

Latest GFS has doubled-down on a powerhouse wound-up system centered over NMI. This system will likely feature Rain, wind, severe, some synoptic snow, and possibly some backside LES as the colder air is drawn in..

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Per global models, we're within 120 hrs of Precip breaking out in the West end of the forum so it's time to kick-off this disco/tracking thread for what appears to be yet another very dynamic system in the new LRC!

 

Latest GFS has doubled-down on a powerhouse wound-up system centered over NMI. This system will likely feature Rain, wind, severe, some synoptic snow, and possibly some backside LES as the colder air is drawn in..

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

#Awesomess...even if I don't get snow with this storm, it's fascinating to see how much of a strong signal this system is showing on all the global models.  The dynamic storms we have seen so far since late Oct is a big ticket item for our region going forward.  Reminds me of all the stories my parents told me from the historic winters of the late 70's.

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Per global models, we're within 120 hrs of Precip breaking out in the West end of the forum so it's time to kick-off this disco/tracking thread for what appears to be yet another very dynamic system in the new LRC!

 

Latest GFS has doubled-down on a powerhouse wound-up system centered over NMI. This system will likely feature Rain, wind, severe, some synoptic snow, and possibly some backside LES as the colder air is drawn in..

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

Bring it on buddy.....hopefully, we get some snow outta this system. A little confused on "Severe" , in terms of what though?! I am thinking you mean t'stms. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Bring it on buddy.....hopefully, we get some snow outta this system. A little confused on "Severe" , in terms of what though?! I am thinking you mean t'stms. :unsure:

By severe I meant strong T-storms. The worst of which may stay south of MI like last time, tho GRR did mention lightning which qualifies as severe these days for Mich. I would think strong winds mixing down in any T-storm would be another threat. And yes, I'm really hopeful for the first measurable snow from the backside of the storm. Key will be how quickly it deepens and thus the timing of the switch-over. This will be a real test of my learning curve of tracking precision.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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By severe I meant strong T-storms. The worst of which may stay south of MI like last time, tho GRR did mention lightning which qualifies as severe these days for Mich. I would think strong winds mixing down in any T-storm would be another threat. And yes, I'm really hopeful for the first measurable snow from the backside of the storm. Key will be how quickly it deepens and thus the timing of the switch-over. This will be a real test of my learning curve of tracking precision.

Yes, hopefully, my area gets some accumulations as well. As your statements states above, all depends on how quickly this thing deepens.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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#Awesomess...even if I don't get snow with this storm, it's fascinating to see how much of a strong signal this system is showing on all the global models.  The dynamic storms we have seen so far since late Oct is a big ticket item for our region going forward.  Reminds me of all the stories my parents told me from the historic winters of the late 70's.

Oh, this below normal temp regime and active pattern is totally 70's flashback stuff for sure! GRR mentioned a mix on the front end of the Precip for central LP of Mich, so we're not too far from this being a legit snowstorm even down here. Next time should be kismet!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS trending towards a stronger southern energy which is making sense, esp when a few days ago I saw the main jet energy tracking in this general fashion.

Seems as though the models, especially the GFS, have been trying to strengthen the southern energy during the last few days but couldn’t quite get there. Today’s runs may be the start of some very nice trends. Still looks too warm for a huge snow anywhere in the forum, it we’ll see how this goes. The 12z GFS is almost a perfect track for a whopper snow here. Regardless looks like a deep storm is looking quite likely. Fun model watching this week!

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Seems as though the models, especially the GFS, have been trying to strengthen the southern energy during the last few days but couldn’t quite get there. Today’s runs may be the start of some very nice trends. Still looks too warm for a huge snow anywhere in the forum, it we’ll see how this goes. The 12z GFS is almost a perfect track for a whopper snow here.

Agree, and what is more encouraging, the Last 4 runs are showing an earlier phase per GFS. Btw, GFS goes from at 996mb at HR 120, to a 969mb storm at HR 144 = Bombogenesis!

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Agree, and what is more encouraging, the Last 4 runs are showing an earlier phase per GFS. Btw, GFS goes from at 996mb at HR 120, to a 969mb storm at HR 144 = Bombogenesis!

Bombogenesis is right! I hadn’t even gotten to hr 144 yet Wowzers. Let’s see what the other models show. Getting inside 120 hrs so hopefully we get some consensus

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Yeah, GEM not as deep, but a very slow mover once it gets over NMI. If there's cold enough air, I'd think via the lakes we will see short term models amp snow totals in favored areas up north.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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How exciting is it to see models, trend for change, more favorably this season compared to last???  How many times did we say last season, "The Dakotas magnet", "Here comes another one for the Dakota's"...."Gosh, darn it, the Dakotas steal another one..."....

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Both 12z EPS/Control are focusing in on the southern energy each run.  This is a very complex system with several moving parts so I would expect to see different solutions going forward.  Def will be an interesting week tracking this storm.

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How exciting is it to see models, trend for change, more favorably this season compared to last???  How many times did we say last season, "The Dakotas magnet", "Here comes another one for the Dakota's"...."Gosh, darn it, the Dakotas steal another one..."....

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@ Jaster,

 

You have a better shot at seeing snow w this system. Looks like I will most likely be on the warmer side w 50s possible and windy conditions. Turning sharply colder on the back-end w snowshowers as colder air filters in behind this storm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I for one will be tracking the surface LP for a potential record setting event. Per this map, anything crossing NMI in the mid-970's or lower could enter the record books!

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A poster who is an amatuer Met in the SMI forum mentioned the extreme 60 deg temp contrast that will be in play (similar temp Delta with the Nov '89 bomb) as this storm explodes over MI. Thinks the models may not yet be picking up on this and could trend stronger.

 

Meanwhile, Hoosier on Amwx did some digging on where it stands right now:

 

"I pulled a sounding off the GFS from over Lake Huron, and there is a window of sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts probably to 75 mph or so."

 

Can't wait to see Storm Watches hoisted. S Lk Mich should get in on it this time, narrowly missed it last month.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A poster who is an amatuer Met in the SMI forum mentioned the extreme 60 deg temp contrast that will be in play (similar temp Delta with the Nov '89 bomb) as this storm explodes over MI. Thinks the models may not yet be picking up on this and could trend stronger.

 

Meanwhile, Hoosier on Amwx did some digging on where it stands right now:

 

"I pulled a sounding off the GFS from over Lake Huron, and there is a window of sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts probably to 75 mph or so."

 

Can't wait to see Storm Watches hoisted. S Lk Mich should get in on it this time, narrowly missed it last month.

This could lead to a colder storm.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Trends are in favor for more of a warmer solution with a possibility of some back wash snow showers.  At the moment, snow belts are likely to see the best chances for wintry precip.  Nonetheless, it's going to be a large wind-driven system.  I'd say most trees will be bare after this system which sets the stage for a wintry Thanksgiving week!

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Warm, wet and windy...bleh. The one good thing that may come out of this storm is it takes down my dying 120 yr old oak tree. I’m planning to have it removed on Sunday, but if this storm does the job on Fri/Sat it saves me $2500.

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yup, it will be a warm storm for my neck of the woods as well, but that wind will be a factor along with wet weather. The following day looks sharply colder w numerous snowshowers flying around.

 

Btw: 85% of the trees here are now bare.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Trends are in favor for more of a warmer solution with a possibility of some back wash snow showers.  At the moment, snow belts are likely to see the best chances for wintry precip.  Nonetheless, it's going to be a large wind-driven system.  I'd say most trees will be bare after this system which sets the stage for a wintry Thanksgiving week!

 

Magnifies the rarity of Nov 15-16 '89 for SMI. Just really hard to get just the right combination for significant snow in SMI at this early time of autumn. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking forward at the strong winds w this system. All leaves will be gone by the weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Magnifies the rarity of Nov 15-16 '89 for SMI. Just really hard to get just the right combination for significant snow in SMI at this early time of autumn.

Those streamers showing up on the GFS this far out are going to be fun for you guys in MI. Perfect wind trajectory caused by the blocking -NAO is setting the stage for a 24hr+ LES scenario?

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Those streamers showing up on the GFS this far out are going to be fun for you guys in MI. Perfect wind trajectory caused by the blocking -NAO is setting the stage for a 24hr+ LES scenario?

 

I'll have to look into and check back with this... ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's some key take-aways per NWS MQT's long-term disco this early morning. Basically, new season, but same ole story of models not getting a good read while key actors in the upcoming drama are over the data-sparse regions of the Pacific Ocean. 

 

 

From NWS MQT:

 

Friday through early next week: The attention turns to the arrival
of the above mentioned strong, longwave trough during the
Friday/Saturday time frame. The medium range models continue to
struggle with any sort of consistency from model to model, and run
to run. This is to be expected given the transition to a highly
amplified upper-air pattern. The main upper-level energy associated
with this system is currently digging south across the Gulf of
Alaska and is progged to sit and spin just off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. Therefore, it could be a few days before ROABs
adequately sample this system and the models converge on similar
solutions.
Overall, the medium range models show this longwave
trough ejecting out across the Plains on Friday, and tracking
eastward across the Great Lakes on Saturday. As this wave takes on a
negative tilt, the focus for large-scale lift will increase and
allow for two areas of low pressure to merge and deepen somewhere in
the vicinity of Lakes Michigan and Huron. Given the highly amplified
upper-level pattern and the arrival of additional shortwave energy
digging rapidly from Canada on the back side
of the main trough on
Saturday, tend to favor the slower ECMWF/Canadian solutions at this
time.
The biggest uncertainty with this system will be system
precipitation, both hydrometer type and amounts Friday through
Saturday. Confidence is higher that we will see strong and gusty
southerly winds ahead of the developing the system, and then very
strong and gusty northwest winds on the back side of the exiting
system.

Behind the system, strong cold air advection will spread across the
region and bring back lake effect snow showers late Saturday through
Sunday across the northwest wind snow belts. With 850mb temperatures
progged to drop to around -10 to -15C, strong lake-induced CAPE
through the convective layer is expected to develop. This coupled
with forecast soundings showing ample lift and cloud depth through
the DGZ will favor moderate to heavy lake effect snow. As mentioned
above, very strong and gusty winds are expected as well, especially
near the shores of Lake Superior and across the Keweenaw. Therefore,
expect blowing snow to become an issue. These strong and gusty
onshore winds will also favor beach erosion near Lake Superior and
the potential for lakeshore flooding, mainly east of Marquette due
to large waves, late Saturday through Sunday.
&&

 

So, in a nutshell, stay tuned..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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