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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

jaster220

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in East of the Rockies

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jaster220
jaster220

From an amatuer Met on the local board:   ”So the mother of all rare parallels has happened. Back in 2013 the GFS was the first model to trend back stronger with the storm on the 17th/18th that year a

Tom
Tom

How exciting is it to see models, trend for change, more favorably this season compared to last???  How many times did we say last season, "The Dakotas magnet", "Here comes another one for the Dakota'

Tom
Tom

Snowing in NW IL (near Genoa)...  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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It's snowing!  Big fat wet flakes falling from the sky...gotta say, didn't expect to see flakes fly over here.

  

It’s rippin’ good here near ORD. Huge half dollar flake.

Congrats Tom! It's trying it's hardest to switch over here in Marshall, but if not I'll be left to the random chances of getting hit with a LES streamer sometime in the next 18 hrs to see flakes flying. Legit autumn Rainer, but lol @ zero headlines for what looked like a strong storm on models. Just didn't have the ingredients to wrap up properly I guess.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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1.43" and about finished here, so GRR's call was very good. Hard to say if it would've all fallen as snow in winter tho. Yesterdays rain fell when that northern system was dragging temps up. We stayed cold at the surface but likely not cold enough aloft. Might've had ZR or sleet or mix during that phase tbh. Hopefully that northern wave gets lost when this cycles around later.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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From the Oct 23-24 storm thread:

 

"I couldn't help but notice the intense rain coming off of Lake Superior in the U.P. Current conditions at Marquette, MI...41F w/ heavy rain, winds N 32mph G 47mph! Nasty!"

 

That's the kind of OBS I figured we had a good shot at seeing with this system after initial monsters were flashed by all globals, then they backed off, but the short-range models re-lit that torch especially the NAMily runs!

 

Let this be a lesson..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Just got sub-990 about 8 pm. Way weaker than almost all models had it just yesterday.

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Precip right about done here w currently receiving a mixture of rain n snow. Temp at 35F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Thundersnow near Bloomington, IL where it was pouring rain with hail in the morning. #Awesomeness

 

DO8C1u-WsAAquc7.jpg

Just imagen if the 3km NAM had played out!
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Just imagen if the 3km NAM had played out!

Exactly, I was hoping to see reports of Thundersnow when I saw run after run of the 3km Nam showing the convective look.  I guess it didn't do to bad.  Had the storm gone neg tilt early on, it would have been game on!  Nonetheless, it was quite the system yesterday.  I was driving around in the heart of the snow and even though it wasn't accumulating, it felt like a true late Autumn storm.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Exactly, I was hoping to see reports of Thundersnow when I saw run after run of the 3km Nam showing the convective look.  I guess it didn't do to bad.  Had the storm gone neg tilt early on, it would have been game on!  Nonetheless, it was quite the system yesterday.  I was driving around in the heart of the snow and even though it wasn't accumulating, it felt like a true late Autumn storm.

Never saw a flake. KRMY asos reported light snow from 6-7 pm but when I peeked outside - nada! Not even slushy remnants on my deck, which always captures and holds marginal stuff very well. On to the next chance for flakes flying for this guy.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Qpf winners for SWMI were down along the 94 corridor from Kzoo east to Jackson. Amazes me how Kzoo always scores the most rain or snow from every big system. It's an enchanted land!

 

000

NWUS53 KGRR 182054

LSRGRR

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

354 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0338 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W FULTON 42.12N 85.37W

11/18/2017 M1.73 INCH KALAMAZOO MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION D7918, FULTON.

 

0340 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE BROWNLEE PARK 42.32N 85.11W

11/18/2017 M1.70 INCH CALHOUN MI MESONET

 

MESONET STATION AU906, 1 E BROWNLEE PARK.

 

0331 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW JACKSON 42.26N 84.43W

11/18/2017 M1.66 INCH JACKSON MI MESONET

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Rain turned ova to snow, but no accumulations. Mainly wet!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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