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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's


jaster220

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My word, that is a low ceiling out there. Just noticed we got some drizzle goin now too. Been very dreary looking all morning. Temp is only 36. Im having doubts on that forecasted 51. Once again....temps have come up short all week. We haven't hit a forecasted high at all this week.

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 My forecast calls for Rain Saturday nite going ova to a few rainshowers b4 ending w possibly a passing flurry. :lol: They tend to change it up w different wording every so often. By tonite, they will prolly say rain ending as a few rainshowers or wet snowflakes.  :lol:  :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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RPM chucks me my 0.1" over in Marshall that I was half-joking about in that prior post  :lol:  This was never a snowstorm for us (this go-around), but the "NAM-fake" was intense there for about 12 hrs, lol  :rolleyes:

A teaser.....neva go w only 1 model run, unless, you have multiple models that are agreeing w one another for a good 2+ days in a row. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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These guys have gone with some back-end snows as well. They have a pretty good track record in my book, so this will be a good test if they're on their game for winter modes..  ;)

 

Increasing confidence of at least seeing my 1st legit flakes Sat night..

 

 

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lake effect snowbelts will most likely see snow from that cold air rushing in ova the lakes. Several inches w whiteout conditions and travel delays w reduced visibility can be expected. Who knows, maybe I will see a flake Sat nite into Sun.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GGEM one of the strongest (and warmest go figure) models and wants to get this sub-980 just east of SMI. If correct, Niko's place should be quite windy!

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking more and more like we may get our first measurable snow of the season tomorrow. Won't be much but with a rain-cooled ground and considering the fact that Wednesday was the average first measurable snowfall day for here, it'll work.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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And those dynamics are just from that northern wave. Southern wave still preparing for launch..

 

 

 

If those negative 850's were lurking just a half state further south, this is a whole nother ball game!

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think we're a go on snow early in the morning tomorrow. All the models that showed us as 100% rain (HRRR namely) have run up to 6 degrees warmer than what we are at now. HRRR had us at 56 at 8pm, it is 49.5 on my balcony now.Once we get the precip in to cool everything down further, including the grass, I think we can look at accumulating snow here. Omaha I'm not so sure about.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GGEM one of the strongest (and warmest go figure) models and wants to get this sub-980 just east of SMI. If correct, Niko's place should be quite windy!

 

attachicon.gif20171117 12z 42hr GEM 500 mb & MSLP for Nov19.jpg

Yup....winds are expected to be gusting to near 40-45mph w sustain winds 20-25mph.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What beats 33-n-rain? 41-n-heavy rain! Happening here with thunder rumbles as well. Baro @ 29.69 in hg and dropping steadily.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wow, MI covered with radar returns. 996 mb closed contour in KS at 9 pm and Nebraska radar lighting up! GRR has upped my total qpf from .5-1" to 1-1.5"

 

#nicetrends

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Temps will rise tomorrow w rain and slowly dropping throughout the afternoon as temps fall into the 30s. Winds will start howling as colder air rushes in.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Radar is socked w heavy rain coming my way. I am looking at at least 1.50"+.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Share on other sites

Wow, MI covered with radar returns. 996 mb closed contour in KS at 9 pm and Nebraska radar lighting up! GRR has upped my total qpf from .5-1" to 1-1.5"

 

#nicetrends

 

attachicon.gifTab2FileL.png

Its going to get wild....possible strong storms ahead of the CF during the pm hours. Snowshowers possible for my area w strong winds. SWMI looking at some snowshowers likely Sat nite. Keep an eye on the radar tomorrow nite Jaster. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Rain/Snow mix being reported in E IA/SW WI, hail reports south of Chicago near Peoria/C IL region along the warm front.  Fascinating storm system intensifying as we speak.  CF has pushed its way through the area and winds are becoming gusty.  It's a raw, windy and wet morning out there today.  Kinda gets you that sense this winter is about to come on hard.

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@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013?  Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens.  Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles.

 

Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection.  Talk about a juiced up storm!

 

feature11182017.jpg?quality=85&strip=all

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"@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles.

 

Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm!"

 

Yeah Tom, here's our share the wealth sub-forum track alright! This would be a really sweet set-up when cold is entrenched.

 

But 1st snowstorm tracking west to east in 2013 was in mid-December. Brought mby about 6" iirc

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles.

 

Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm!"

 

Yeah Tom, here's our share the wealth sub-forum track alright! This would be a really sweet set-up when cold is entrenched.

 

But 1st snowstorm tracking west to east in 2013 was in mid-December. Brought mby about 6" iirc

Ya, I can't remember TBH.  The only thing I recall which stuck out was how D**n cold it got in mid December and our first sub zero readings were recorded around then.  Prob makes sense we got a fresh snow cover during that period which allowed temps to tank.

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If this placement is accurate, the CF has indeed punched further south than expected just last evening

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At Tom

 

Yep, had -18F on my car thermo in the countryside that morning and was shocked tbh

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At Tom

 

Yep, had -18F on my car thermo in the countryside that morning and was shocked tbh

That was just the beginning of the "Polar Vortex" theme that year.  I'm sure we will see a few visits this season, but I think we may beat some low temps reached that season around here partly due to the numerous HP's (post storm) we have seen this LRC.  Lay down a deep snow pack and allow some massive HP's to slide in across the region and that will be the best scenario to get the coldest temps.

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