This would be a closer match to 2010 than 2012. Because 2012 wasn’t coming off a strong niño, where-as there are still niño-like elements to the current base state (albeit attenuating).
Of course there will be subseasonal scale differences as well. Unwise to project from your analog pool alone.
You don’t have a point. The context was *leaving town* on a day with desirable weather, to a destination with more desirable weather. Not *returning home* to desirable weather.
Looking at the last couple really warm summers for the middle of the country, 2022 and 2012...the pattern definitely got established early in 2012, but it didn't really in 2022 (except in Texas).
I think Phil and others are envisioning something more along the lines of 2012 this summer. But this spring, while warm in the eastern half of the US, has been a far cry from that one.
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