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On This Day In History...Major Weather Events in the PNW or West


snow_wizard

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January 10 =  :wub: for Clark County

 

2017 and 1998 mostly. 2007 also had a decent event.

 

Snow depth reached 20"+ here locally in 1980 before it started to moderate.

 

And then a major ice storm in 1979.

 

The one day of the month that hasn't gotten totally Aprilfied!

 

Then there was the 1-10-2008 tornado. 

 

I had a business meeting in Hazel Dell right off Hwy 99 & NE 78th that afternoon. About an hour after the tornado hit. I didn't even know what had happened when I drove into the neighborhood. I hadn't checked the weather since earlier that morning. A Chinese restaurant had a tree fall partially on its roof and the traffic lights weren't working. I was like what the hell? I knew the forecast hadn't called for strong south winds, and I hadn't really considered a tornado at that point. The weenie in me was excited but I didn't even know what to be excited about initially.  :lol:

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Then there was the 1-10-2008 tornado. 

 

I had a business meeting in Hazel Dell right off Hwy 99 & NE 78th that afternoon. About an hour after the tornado hit. I didn't even know what had happened when I drove into the neighborhood. I hadn't checked the weather since earlier that morning. A Chinese restaurant had a tree fall partially on its roof and the traffic lights weren't working. I was like what the hell? I knew the forecast hadn't called for strong south winds, and I hadn't really considered a tornado at that point. The weenie in me was excited but I didn't even know what to be excited about initially.  :lol:

 

Yeah, I was just close enough to that cell in Vancouver to catch the lightning and some hail, and could tell right away that it had a little more bite to it than our usual cold core stuff. I think that was the only thunderstorm in the area that day, too.

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Yeah, I was just close enough to that cell in Vancouver to catch the lightning and some hail, and could tell right away that it had a little more bite to it than our usual cold core stuff. I think that was the only thunderstorm in the area that day, too.

 

I love that someone saved a radar loop:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Vancouver_tornado

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A nice event last year, Portland got buried and we were basically right on the rain/snow line at the very southern point of the cold air dam.  As the night went on it got just cold enough for accumulations and we had about 4-5" by the end.

 

Last winter was truly a special one here for the number of times we had measurable snow.  No event brought more than 4" here but 5 separate events was pretty great.  Now it would be nice to have a good 6"+ event as we haven't had one since Feb, 2014.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I think January 10-11, 2017 is slightly overrated due to how the event unfolded. It was not expected to be nearly as significant as it was, and it was incredibly intense with the majority of the snow falling in just a few hours. 

 

26815386_10210691533236655_8490473811452

 

Incredible event for the metro area. For the Willamette Valley as a whole February 2014 is probably the #1 event of this century. Dec 20-22, 08 was about Albany north, but even so that covered a much larger geographical area with in general 10-20" totals. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think January 10-11, 2017 is slightly overrated due to how the event unfolded. It was not expected to be nearly as significant as it was, and it was incredibly intense with the majority of the snow falling in just a few hours. 

 

26815386_10210691533236655_8490473811452

 

Incredible event for the metro area. For the Willamette Valley as a whole February 2014 is probably the #1 event of this century. Dec 20-22, 08 was about Albany north, but even so that covered a much larger geographical area with in general 10-20" totals. 

 

Wow, I didn't realize Dewey got screwed so hard with that event.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Wow, I didn't realize Dewey got screwed so hard with that event.

Not sure about that observation. We had a solid 7 inches (that's what she said!) and that was taken on the morning of the 12th. I suppose it's possible because accumulations dropped off just south and east of what is typically considered Hockinson toward Fern Prairie/NW Camas. We're actually in the Battle Ground School District.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I think January 10-11, 2017 is slightly overrated due to how the event unfolded. It was not expected to be nearly as significant as it was, and it was incredibly intense with the majority of the snow falling in just a few hours.

 

26815386_10210691533236655_8490473811452

 

Incredible event for the metro area. For the Willamette Valley as a whole February 2014 is probably the #1 event of this century. Dec 20-22, 08 was about Albany north, but even so that covered a much larger geographical area with in general 10-20" totals.

A lot of things to say about 1/10/17. Overrated isn’t one of them.

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It is interesting how many different events effected the PNW last year and how basically everywhere on the I-5 corridor had at least one significant snow event. Its interesting too how each area had its biggest event on a different date.

 

Salem - 12/14/16

Medford - 1/4/17

Eugene - 1/7/17

PDX -     1/10/17

SEA -      2/5/17

"My Location" - 3/6/17

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A lot of things to say about 1/10/17. Overrated isn’t one of them.

 

December 20-22, 2008 and February 6/7, 2014 were better overall events. 

 

Not saying it wasn't a great, even epic event for a small geographical location. It was. But we have seen better events even in the past ten years. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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December 20-22, 2008 and February 6/7, 2014 were better overall events. 

 

Not saying it wasn't a great, even epic event for a small geographical location. It was. But we have seen better events even in the past ten years. 

 

It wasn't a regional snowstorm, more sub-regional. No shame in that. It was still awesome. I'm sorry you had to miss it.

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December 20-22, 2008 and February 6/7, 2014 were better overall events.

 

Not saying it wasn't a great, even epic event for a small geographical location. It was. But we have seen better events even in the past ten years.

You're making a regional assessment. 1-10-17 was a fascinating event. By PNW standards, that was a load of meteorology going on over a 6 hour period. It wasn't just a simple warm advection or frontogenic/coastal surface low setup.

 

It'd be like calling 12-6-13 overrated in Eugene because it too was relatively localized.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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You're making a regional assessment. 1-10-17 was a fascinating event. By PNW standards, that was a s**t load of meteorology going on over a 6 hour period. It wasn't just a simple warm advection or frontogenic/coastal surface low setup.

 

It'd be like calling 12-6-13 overrated in Eugene because it too was relatively localized.

It was a great event, not trying to argue that.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It wasn't a regional snowstorm, more sub-regional. No shame in that. It was still awesome. I'm sorry you had to miss it.

I agree. I am not motivated in my analysis due to the fact that I wasn’t in the sweet spot. Though I am sure had I gotten a foot of snow I wouldn’t be making these posts. So fair enough. At least I had 2.3” of snow with it. My location was shunked in January 1980 and 1998.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I agree. I am not motivated in my analysis due to the fact that I wasn’t in the sweet spot. Though I am sure had I gotten a foot of snow I wouldn’t be making these posts. So fair enough. At least I had 2.3” of snow with it. My location was shunked in January 1980 and 1998.

Well, we don't refer to your location as my location for nothing...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Well, we don't refer to your location as my location for nothing...

Of that I am well aware.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I agree. I am not motivated in my analysis due to the fact that I wasn’t in the sweet spot. Though I am sure had I gotten a foot of snow I wouldn’t be making these posts. So fair enough. At least I had 2.3” of snow with it. My location was shunked in January 1980 and 1998.

 

I think My Location definitely would have gotten snow in January 1980. I've studied that event enough to know your spot probably did alright once the flow turned onshore on the 10th. Even Salem had an inch or two.

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I think My Location definitely would have gotten snow in January 1980. I've studied that event enough to know your spot probably did alright once the flow turned onshore on the 10th. Even Salem had an inch or two.

 

1980 was one of my all time favorite snowstorms.  Widespread 6 to 12 inch amounts for the Puget Sound region.  I still remember how excited everyone was at my High School in the hours just before the snow started falling.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think My Location definitely would have gotten snow in January 1980. I've studied that event enough to know your spot probably did alright once the flow turned onshore on the 10th. Even Salem had an inch or two.

 

I looked back at the stats from Silver Falls for January 1980 and I think you are right. That station is horrible at recording snowfall, especially in the late 70s up through about 10 years ago. The 10th at Silver Falls was 35/25 with 0.52" of precip. Safe to say based on that they probably did very well actually. Later in the month the arctic blast produced 4 straight lows in the single digits. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1-11-1963

 

21/11 at PDX with dp's down to -20 at one point. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1963/1/11/DailyHistory.html

 

\Looks like Silverton had a 23/7 with that blast. About as cold as it gets with bare ground. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Makes me wonder what that airmass would have done with some snow to work with. 

 

I think we could knock off a few degrees from the highs and probably at least 5 off the lows...At least most of the valley had some good snow late in the month.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think we could knock off a few degrees from the highs and probably at least 5 off the lows...At least most of the valley had some good snow late in the month.

 

That was a very decent winter storm later in the month. There was also snow on the transition out from the mid-month airmass (13th/14th). 

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Going way back, a major snow and ice storm on this day in 1857. Fort Vancouver had 1.05" of precip with a 27/19 spread, with 0.45" and 31/27 on the 12th. This followed a major arctic blast which had produced 18/2 a few days earlier.

 

Five years later in 1862, the 2nd week of January snowstorm sweetness struck again, with 17" falling in Vancouver on the 10th-11th in what would be the biggest snow event of that winter.

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Going way back, a major snow and ice storm on this day in 1857. Fort Vancouver had 1.05" of precip with a 27/19 spread, with 0.45" and 31/27 on the 12th. This followed a major arctic blast which had produced 18/2 a few days earlier.

 

Five years later in 1862, the 2nd week of January snowstorm sweetness struck again, with 17" falling in Vancouver on the 10th-11th in what would be the biggest snow event of that winter.

 

January 1857 was crazy cold. Still the coldest month on record in the Minneapolis area. The Washington DC-Richmond blizzard on the 16th-18th. Chesapeake Bay frozen out to the Atlantic. Also one of the greatest New England cold waves on record. I've read before that people measured -50 on spirit thermometers in Vermont during that one. If memory serves one town hit -50 and another -44. Fun winter. 

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On this day in 1963, DEN had their coldest day on record: -9/-25.

 

Here's the NWS summary of the event. 

 

1963: A Arctic cold wave plunged temperatures well below zero across metro Denver. Temperatures were below zero for a total of 64 consecutive hours. Low temperatures reached25 degrees below zero on both the 11th and 12th. The high temperature of 9 degrees below zero on the 11th was the coldest ever recorded at Stapleton Airport and equaled the record low maximum for the month first set on January 19, 1883, in downtown Denver. The high temperature on the 12th reached only 1 degree below zero. On the 12th, an 18-year-old youth died of exposure from the extreme cold in Denver. There were many losses and damage to property from frozen water systems, stalled cars, and over-burdened heating systems. Light snow accompanied the Arctic blast. At Stapleton Airport, 2.3 inches of snow fell on the 10th and 11th.

A forum for the end of the world.

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January 1857 was crazy cold. Still the coldest month on record in the Minneapolis area. The Washington DC-Richmond blizzard on the 16th-18th. Chesapeake Bay frozen out to the Atlantic. Also one of the greatest New England cold waves on record. I've read before that people measured -50 on spirit thermometers in Vermont during that one. If memory serves one town hit -50 and another -44. Fun winter. 

 

Interesting, locally the progression was actually very, very similar to last winter. Fort Vancouver stayed at 36 or below from December 26 to January 17. I didn't know it was so crazy in the East. Unlike the modern era, the whole country shared in on the extreme stuff quite frequently back then.

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Interesting, locally the progression was actually very, very similar to last winter. Fort Vancouver stayed at 36 or below from December 26 to January 17. I didn't know it was so crazy in the East. Unlike the modern era, the whole country shared in on the extreme stuff quite frequently back then.

 

The 1850's stand out to me historically. It seems as though both coasts got hit hard, repeatedly, throughout that decade. 

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On this day in 1963, DEN had their coldest day on record: -9/-25.

 

Here's the NWS summary of the event. 

 

1963: A Arctic cold wave plunged temperatures well below zero across metro Denver. Temperatures were below zero for a total of 64 consecutive hours. Low temperatures reached25 degrees below zero on both the 11th and 12th. The high temperature of 9 degrees below zero on the 11th was the coldest ever recorded at Stapleton Airport and equaled the record low maximum for the month first set on January 19, 1883, in downtown Denver. The high temperature on the 12th reached only 1 degree below zero. On the 12th, an 18-year-old youth died of exposure from the extreme cold in Denver. There were many losses and damage to property from frozen water systems, stalled cars, and over-burdened heating systems. Light snow accompanied the Arctic blast. At Stapleton Airport, 2.3 inches of snow fell on the 10th and 11th.

 

The -50 in Laramie, WY from that cold wave is IMO one of the most impressive cold records anywhere in the country. It took them until January 2017 to even hit -40 again. There were also press reports of -57 at Ciniza, New Mexico. Measured at the Western Refinery (which still exists today) on their facility thermometer. I actually found a link to it:

 

https://weather.nmsu.edu/climate/about/

 

The lowest temperature recorded at regular observing stations in the State was -50° F at Gavilan on February 1, 1951. An unofficial low temperature of -57° F at Ciniza on January 13, 1963, was widely reported by the press.

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The -50 in Laramie, WY from that cold wave is IMO one of the most impressive cold records anywhere in the country. It took them until January 2017 to even hit -40 again. There were also press reports of -57 at Ciniza, New Mexico. Measured at the Western Refinery (which still exists today) on their facility thermometer. I actually found a link to it:

 

https://weather.nmsu.edu/climate/about/

 

The lowest temperature recorded at regular observing stations in the State was -50° F at Gavilan on February 1, 1951. An unofficial low temperature of -57° F at Ciniza on January 13, 1963, was widely reported by the press.

 

-51 at Eagle Colorado was a pretty good one as well.   January 2017 only hit -17 there.   It's true that Eagle did hit -46 on 2/1/1951, but those are the only readings (1951 and 1963) below -36 in the station's history.

 

The 8 in Las Vegas on 1/13/1962 was a pretty good one too.

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I’ll have to find/link the studies, but there’s evidence that midwinter wavelengths were substantially longer across the Western Hemisphere during the 19th century, perhaps by up to 20-25%.

 

That might explain why a larger portion of North America could score during the same pattern.

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Here's some more info about January 1857:

 

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

 

The lowest readings from press releases from Maine were: -52 at Bath, Maine; -51 at Franconia New Hampshire; and 50 below at both Montpelier and St. John's., Vermont. The present day excepted low temperature for Maine by the National Climate Data Center is 50 below zero. Early American Winters, I 1604-1820 by David M. Ludlum pp. 54-61

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-51 at Eagle Colorado was a pretty good one as well.   January 2017 only hit -17 there.   It's true that Eagle did hit -46 on 2/1/1951, but those are the only readings (1951 and 1963) below -36 in the station's history.

 

The 8 in Las Vegas on 1/13/1962 was a pretty good one too.

 

Yeah, the penetration into the desert SW was pretty insane in Jan 1963. 29/8 in Vegas and 32/3 in Barstow. 

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1-12- 

 

1854 - One of the all time great January cold waves began on this day when the low temperature at Fort Steilacom dropped to 22 degrees.  The cold wave lasted until the 24th and had 10 consecutive days with highs below freezing and 12 consecutive days with highs of 33 or below.  About 5 inches of snow fell going into the event.  Following is a list of dates and temperatures for the greatest part of the cold wave.

 

16. 24 - 4

17. 22 - 3

18. 18 - 5

19. 25 - 0

20. 30 - 10

21. 32 - 19

22. 26 - (-1)

23. 28 - 0

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That reading is hard to believe. Although as you know, Portland ME did hit -39 in Feb 1943. 

 

Yes, very hard to believe, though it would still be amazing if accurate.  Even the Portland 1943 reading does seem out of place when compared to the surrounding areas, but it is accepted as being accurate.

 

For what it's worth, the -57 at Ciniza mention also seems unlikely.   None of the other weather stations in the vicinity were below -27, including Fort Wingate (-26) which is right next to Ciniza.    Average January lows for most of the stations in that area are 18-20, so if the -57 really did happen, it would be almost surely be the coldest reading in the US for a location with such a high average low.   

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Yes, very hard to believe, though it would still be amazing if accurate.  Even the Portland 1943 reading does seem out of place when compared to the surrounding areas, but it is accepted as being accurate.

 

For what it's worth, the -57 at Ciniza mention also seems unlikely.   None of the other weather stations in the vicinity were below -27, including Fort Wingate (-26) which is right next to Ciniza.    Average January lows for most of the stations in that area are 18-20, so if the -57 really did happen, it would be almost surely be the coldest reading in the US for a location with such a high average low.   

 

Oh, interesting. I wasn't aware of that. Definitely seems unlikely now. 

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