On This Day In History...Major Weather Events in the PNW or West

[BLI snowman 6767]

On this date in 2003 an area of low pressure tracked south of Salem with a broad quasi-stationary baroclinic band of precipitation to the north. Temperatures slowly dropped throughout the evening under steady precip and light offshore flow. By late evening on the 28th rain began transitioning to snow across the western part of the Willamette Valley as cold air banked against the coast range. Places like Dallas and Monmouth were the first to transition around 9-10pm and they would receive the heaviest accumulations with 8-12" of snow falling by morning on the 29th. Precip would transition to snow at Salem by midnight and further east towards Silverton where I was living the changeover did not take place until about 3-4am on the 29th. The Salem area saw about 4-8" of snow with places to the north and east getting lower totals, the higher totals south and west. In Silverton we picked up about 4.5" of snow. 

 

Because the events played out in a relatively similar fashion a lot of PNW weenies confuse the Dec 28-29, 2003 event with the more widespread January 1, 2004 event. PDX never switched to snow with the earlier event and at least in the east valley the accumulating snow on the 28-29th event stayed south of a Woodburn/Molalla line. 

 

I stayed at the coast that night with no internet near Otter Rock. The drive back inland the next morning was a fun one, since I had minimal idea of what had taken place. I remember about 4" in McMinnville by the time I got there.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

I stayed at the coast that night with no internet near Otter Rock. The drive back inland the next morning was a fun one, since I had minimal idea of what had taken place. I remember about 4" in McMinnville by the time I got there.

In Silverton those 4.5” were the most significant snow accumulation in nearly 9 years. It closed a chapter on one of the worst if not the worst stretches of winters in our recorded history.

[snow_wizard 11675]

On this date in 2003 an area of low pressure tracked south of Salem with a broad quasi-stationary baroclinic band of precipitation to the north. Temperatures slowly dropped throughout the evening under steady precip and light offshore flow. By late evening on the 28th rain began transitioning to snow across the western part of the Willamette Valley as cold air banked against the coast range. Places like Dallas and Monmouth were the first to transition around 9-10pm and they would receive the heaviest accumulations with 8-12" of snow falling by morning on the 29th. Precip would transition to snow at Salem by midnight and further east towards Silverton where I was living the changeover did not take place until about 3-4am on the 29th. The Salem area saw about 4-8" of snow with places to the north and east getting lower totals, the higher totals south and west. In Silverton we picked up about 4.5" of snow. 

 

Because the events played out in a relatively similar fashion a lot of PNW weenies confuse the Dec 28-29, 2003 event with the more widespread January 1, 2004 event. PDX never switched to snow with the earlier event and at least in the east valley the accumulating snow on the 28-29th event stayed south of a Woodburn/Molalla line. 

 

There were several events tucked into that late Dec / early Jan period.  Pretty much everyone got something good from at least one.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5580]

The baroclinic band on 12/29/03 even came as far south as Eugene.  I was leaving for a trip to the Sun Bowl and as I was driving to the airport, at about 6AM, the rain changed to snow and the temp dropped from 35 to 27 in about 15 minutes. And that was indeed 1 of the 3 best events for Monmouth since I moved here in 1989.  The other 2 being 2008 and Feb 6 and 7 of 2014.

[BLI snowman 6767]

In Silverton those 4.5” were the most significant snow accumulation in nearly 9 years. It closed a chapter on one of the worst if not the worst stretches of winters in our recorded history.

 

Yeah, the valley got hosed pretty bad from 1993-1998. That was a nice-ish stretch for SW WA.

[BLI snowman 6767]

Cold wave peaked on this day in 1968 as a warm front began to encroach from the SW.

 

Spokane pulled off a mundane -8/-25 day while Pullman, WA hit -32 and right across the border Moscow, ID hit a ridiculous -42.

 

SEA hit a monthly record low of 6 while PDX had a midnight high of 14 as a blizzard blew in and temps remained between 8 and 10 the remainder of the day.

[Jesse 8871]

Cold wave peaked on this day in 1968 as a warm front began to encroach from the SW.

 

Spokane pulled off a mundane -8/-25 day while Pullman, WA hit -32 and right across the border Moscow, ID hit a ridiculous -42.

 

SEA hit a monthly record low of 6 while PDX had a midnight high of 14 as a blizzard blew in and temps remained between 8 and 10 the remainder of the day.

Sounds like Phil’s forecast for this week.

[BLI snowman 6767]

Sounds like Phil’s forecast for this week.

 

It'd be nice to see him forecast a 1934 style blowtorch for us. 

[Deweydog 14086]

Fun little clipper system tonight in 2003.

[Front Ranger 7604]

There were several events tucked into that late Dec / early Jan period.  Pretty much everyone got something good from at least one.

 

4 different snow events in Tacoma: one a couple days before New Years, then New Years Day, then the Arctic front, then the big overrunning event .

[wx_statman 2469]

Cold wave peaked on this day in 1968 as a warm front began to encroach from the SW.

 

Spokane pulled off a mundane -8/-25 day while Pullman, WA hit -32 and right across the border Moscow, ID hit a ridiculous -42.

 

SEA hit a monthly record low of 6 while PDX had a midnight high of 14 as a blizzard blew in and temps remained between 8 and 10 the remainder of the day.

 

GEG definitely underperformed in December 1968. Even Stampede Pass pulled off a -15/-21 day. Leavenworth was -10/-36 and Winthrop was in full Siberia mode at -21/-48. Even Walla Walla Airport was -9/-24, virtually identical to Spokane. Incredible CAA from that event.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

Record low at Silver Falls on this date is 6 set back in 1955. I don't think that was actually a major cold snap, but there was a decent snowfall a couple days earlier so it may have been more of a radiational cooling event. Record snowfall for the date was 4" back in 1951. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

I do not believe the 1968 airmass set any record lows at Silver Falls. It was more of a low level cold airmass, highs in Salem and Silverton were in the mid-teens, but around 30 up here. 

 

Silverton was 15/7 on the 12/31/68. All-time coldest max (Records 1962-present). 

 

Here are their 5 coldest highs.

 

15 - 12/31/68

17 - 12/21/90

17 - 12/22/90

17 - 02/04/89

18 - 12/23/90

[wx_statman 2469]

12-30-1927

 

Arctic air poured into the Portland area. Downtown max/min pairs were:

 

29th: 41/27

30th: 27/19

31st: 19/14

1st: 24/15

2nd: 30/22

 

A major winter storm affected the I-5 corridor. Downtown Portland received at least 6" of snow (max depth on Jan. 2nd, actual snowfall amounts missing), along with a ton of freezing rain. Melted precip totaled 0.99" on the 31st and 1.40" on the 1st, with temperatures well below freezing. 

 

Chewelah, WA dropped to -33 on the 31st, a monthly record low. Extreme cold affected Montana as well. Trident hit -55 on the 31st, an all-time record low and just 4 degrees from the CONUS record low for the month of December. Adel hit a monthly record of -46 and Missoula fell to -25. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

12-30-1927

 

Arctic air poured into the Portland area. Downtown max/min pairs were:

 

29th: 41/27

30th: 27/19

31st: 19/14

1st: 24/15

2nd: 30/22

 

A major winter storm affected the I-5 corridor. Downtown Portland received at least 6" of snow (max depth on Jan. 2nd, actual snowfall amounts missing), along with a ton of freezing rain. Melted precip totaled 0.99" on the 31st and 1.40" on the 1st, with temperatures well below freezing. 

 

Chewelah, WA dropped to -33 on the 31st, a monthly record low. Extreme cold affected Montana as well. Trident hit -55 on the 31st, an all-time record low and just 4 degrees from the CONUS record low for the month of December. Adel hit a monthly record of -46 and Missoula fell to -25. 

 

Good event. Even SLE had 3 consecutive sub-freezing highs and a 27/17 on the 31st. 4.5" of snow at SLE it looks like. 

 

That 19/14 is super impressive. We sure used to have some nice winters/events.

[wx_statman 2469]

Good event. Even SLE had 3 consecutive sub-freezing highs and a 27/17 on the 31st. 4.5" of snow at SLE it looks like. 

 

That 19/14 is super impressive. We sure used to have some nice winters/events.

 

We sure did. An event like Dec 1927 gets lost in the shuffle when looking back at that era, but it would have produced the coldest day of the 21st century today.

[Jesse 8871]

We sure did. An event like Dec 1927 gets lost in the shuffle when looking back at that era, but it would have produced the coldest day of the 21st century today.

Just the WPAC forcing acting up. Should reverse any year now.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

We sure did. An event like Dec 1927 gets lost in the shuffle when looking back at that era, but it would have produced the coldest day of the 21st century today.

 

Looks like a bit of a early 20th century version of January 2004. 

[wx_statman 2469]

Looks like a bit of a early 20th century version of January 2004. 

 

I was actually thinking the same. 

[Phil 11734]

It'd be nice to see him forecast a 1934 style blowtorch for us.

I did in 2015.

[BLI snowman 6767]

I did in 2015.

 

2015-16?

 

I remember you getting pretty excited for us in early January 2015.

[Phil 11734]

2015-16?

 

I remember you getting pretty excited for us in early January 2015.

I meant summer 2015.

 

August/September of this year, too!

[Front Ranger 7604]

I meant summer 2015.

 

August/September of this year, too!

 

After you had predicted a cooler than normal summer in May.

 

I don't want to argue it, I know you'll deny it vehemently and try to dance semantics around it until the day you die, but the evidence remains.

 

I think you tend to do better with pattern recognition a few weeks out than seasonal forecasts. You've had some great calls, and you've had some busts, but more busts with seasonal forecasts it seems.

[Jesse 8871]

After you had predicted a cooler than normal summer in May.

 

I don't want to argue it, I know you'll deny it vehemently and try to dance semantics around it until the day you die, but the evidence remains.

 

I think you tend to do better with pattern recognition a few weeks out than seasonal forecasts. You've had some great calls, and you've had some busts, but more busts with seasonal forecasts it seems.

I think he’s still done much better than you though, overall. We all know that competition with him is the real reason behind this post. You still lose in that regard

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

We were in the grips of the 1978 arctic outbreak on this date. Silver Falls had a 27/6 day with 4" of snow. A few days later they would acually set their record monthly min/max for January with a high of 21. 

[Deweydog 14086]

Today in 2003 it was gloomy and cold. The forecast for tomorrow was rain or snow changing to rain late morning.

[Front Ranger 7604]

I think he’s still done much better than you though, overall. We all know that competition with him is the real reason behind this post. You still lose in that regard

Coming from an objective source, this opinion would matter.

[Deweydog 14086]

Coming from an objective source, this opinion would matter.

Warm pool burn.

[MossMan 10565]

One year ago today it snowed a little.

[wx_statman 2469]

We had snowflakes in the air last New Year's Eve here too. Nothing sticking to pavement. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 14792]

A year ago this evening it started snowing. I ended up with about 7” total. There was snowcover for the next 3 weeks.

[wx_statman 2469]

Impressive numbers from the late Dec 1978/early Jan 1979 cold wave, which was peaking right around this time. All-time record lows included -39 in Baker City and -8 in Olympia. Kalispell hit -37 on 1-1-1979, just missing the all-time record low of -38 from Jan 1950. Subzero readings in the Portland area included -2 in Vancouver, -1 in Battle Ground, and -1 in Forest Grove. Maybell, CO hit -60 which is within 1F of the state record low.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Warm pool burn.

Feels a little like butt hurt...

 

Jesse lost his shot at objectivity long ago. Now I'm just another number on one lengthy black list.

 

But I'm sure he's done a fair and reasoned evaluation of my LR forecasts vs. Phil's...

[Front Ranger 7604]

Impressive numbers from the late Dec 1978/early Jan 1979 cold wave, which was peaking right around this time. All-time record lows included -39 in Baker City and -8 in Olympia. Kalispell hit -37 on 1-1-1979, just missing the all-time record low of -38 from Jan 1950. Subzero readings in the Portland area included -2 in Vancouver, -1 in Battle Ground, and -1 in Forest Grove. Maybell, CO hit -60 which is within 1F of the state record low.

Such an insane winter for the country as a whole.

[Deweydog 14086]

I did NOT expect it to be snowy when I woke up about now in 2004.

 

#thankyoujesus

[Phil 11734]

I think he’s still done much better than you though, overall. We all know that competition with him is the real reason behind this post. You still lose in that regard

Pretty much. We’re into January 2018 and he still can’t let last summer go.

 

It’s his only “victory”.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Pretty much. We’re into January 2018 and he still can’t let last summer go.

 

It’s his only “victory”.

 

 

If you'd just be honest Phil, there would be no issues. Don't stoop to Jesse's level.

 

I gave an honest assessment based on real events. I'm not perfect either. You can take it in stride, or go down the butt hurt trail. Jesse gave his own heavily biased opinion based on zero actual evidence.

[Jesse 8871]

 

If you'd just be honest Phil, there would be no issues. Don't stoop to Jesse's level.

 

I gave an honest assessment based on real events. I'm not perfect either. You can take it in stride, or go down the butt hurt trail. Jesse gave his own heavily biased opinion based on zero actual evidence.

Good lord. Stop trying to bait me into a flame war.

 

You are only upset about what I said because it was accurate. I watched the last year’s weather and your respective forecasts unfold with my own eyes. I don’t owe you any “evidence” for the obvious.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Good lord. Stop trying to bait me into a flame war.

 

You are only upset about what I said because it was accurate. I watched the last year’s weather and your respective forecasts unfold with my own eyes. I don’t owe you any “evidence” for the obvious.

 

You cannot argue that you are objective - it's blatantly obvious that you are not. And you have provided zero evidence.

 

I'm not upset. Those are facts.

[Jesse 8871]

You cannot argue that you are objective - it's blatantly obvious that you are not. And you have provided zero evidence.

 

I'm not upset. Those are facts.

Do you think you are objective? If so, provide me evidence. I will be here waiting.

[Front Ranger 7604]

Do you think you are objective? If so, provide me evidence. I will be here waiting.

 

I didn't make any claim. You did. Onus on you.

[Jesse 8871]

I can imagine someone beating Flatty in a foot race and him stamping his feet and not conceding until “evidence” is provided.

 

Some things are just obvious. No evidence needed. Phil has done a much better job despite his more specific approach, which makes it even more impressive. I think just about everyone here but one person would agree.

[Jesse 8871]

I didn't make any claim. You did. Onus on you.

You claimed I am incapable of objectivity. I want evidence.

[Front Ranger 7604]

I can imagine someone beating Flatty in a foot race and him stamping his feet and not conceding until “evidence” is provided.

 

Some things are just obvious. No evidence needed. Phil has done a much better job despite his more specific approach, which makes it even more impressive. I think just about everyone here but one person would agree.

 

This is your biased opinion. Provide real evidence, real objective analysis of our forecasts, and your opinion (though still biased) will mean something.

[Front Ranger 7604]

I can imagine someone beating Flatty in a foot race and him stamping his feet and not conceding until “evidence” is provided.

 

Some things are just obvious. No evidence needed. Phil has done a much better job despite his more specific approach, which makes it even more impressive. I think just about everyone here but one person would agree.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

[Front Ranger 7604]

You claimed I am incapable of objectivity. I want evidence.

 

You've demonstrated a consistent beef with me. Complete lack of balance in your responses to me. There's plenty of evidence that you wouldn't give me a positive grade on anything, no matter what. 

 

So why would anyone think you are capable of an objective analysis of my forecasts?

[Jesse 8871]

You've demonstrated a consistent beef with me. Complete lack of balance in your responses to me. There's plenty of evidence that you wouldn't give me a positive grade on anything, no matter what.

 

So why would anyone think you are capable of an objective analysis of my forecasts?

Seems pretty subjective...

[Jesse 8871]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

Clearly everyone is wrong but you. The height of objectivity!

[Jesse 8871]

This is your biased opinion. Provide real evidence, real objective analysis of our forecasts, and your opinion (though still biased) will mean something.

No. Why would I waste energy trying to provide objective evidence refuting this subjective post, considering you don’t believe I am capable of objectivity? It’s a fool’s errand.

[BLI snowman 6767]

Thread hijack!