Jump to content

PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Record gloom in Southern California for this time of year

Record gloom?Ā  Ā How is that measured?Ā  Ā šŸ˜€

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF showed this would be the coldest morning... and it did dip down to 30 briefly at SEA as it shows.Ā  Ā  It also shows warmer than normal weather ahead.

Ā 

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-2617600.png

SEA up to 49... ECMWF way too cold today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.Ā  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.Ā  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its more related to blocky extremes.Ā  Ā We just had near record-setting cold spread across the US.Ā  Ā 

Watch out for summer 2023.Ā  Ā 

Weā€™ll look back at this next summer and glad this happened.Ā 

C9FB772A-44A2-453E-BB9F-58A8B5B5088D.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point the ECMWF has been slowly taming down the winds expected with the east wind event centered around Wednesday.Ā  My guess is places that are having east winds today will be about 50% stronger winds on Wednesday than today.Ā  An exception may be North Bend which had some pretty strong gusts today.Ā  I think places more like here and Enumclaw will be the ones to see the stronger winds on Wednesday.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Weā€™ll look back at this next summer and glad this happened.Ā 

C9FB772A-44A2-453E-BB9F-58A8B5B5088D.png

The million dollar question is whether or not the big rains in CA this winter indicate we have gone through a major regime shift.Ā  If so, next summer may be a lot different than recent ones.Ā  Still a good chance that won't be the case though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.Ā  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.Ā  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

Unlatched

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferencesā€™ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Deweydog said:

Unlatched

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled.Ā  Ā How could it be totally up in the air now?Ā  Ā 

  • lol 2
  • Snow 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Unlatched

I knew you were going to say something.Ā  Didn't waste much time either!

  • Weenie 1
  • Facepalm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled.Ā  Ā How could it be totally up in the air now?Ā  Ā 

Some aspects are staying pretty consistent such as the high moving off of Asia that ends up amplifying over the Pacific.Ā  The details are widely varied though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The million dollar question is whether or not the big rains in CA this winter indicate we have gone through a major regime shift.Ā  If so, next summer may be a lot different than recent ones.Ā  Still a good chance that won't be the case though.

2016/17 was very wet in CA and we torched that summer like usual

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the ECMWF has been slowly taming down the winds expected with the east wind event centered around Wednesday.Ā  My guess is places that are having east winds today will be about 50% stronger winds on Wednesday than today.Ā  An exception may be North Bend which had some pretty strong gusts today.Ā  I think places more like here and Enumclaw will be the ones to see the stronger winds on Wednesday.

Eh-- looks basically unchanged down here the past few days. Should be a purely downslope event with some decent upper level support.

"Let's mosey!"

Ā 

--Cloud Strife

Ā 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ā 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

Ā 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

Ā 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

Ā 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got very foggy all of a sudden.Ā 

FF8031AE-C3DF-4783-87D1-9FD3D785077B.jpeg

Ā 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

SnowfallĀ  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2021-22: 91.46"Ā 

2020-21: 12.0"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2012-13: 78.45Ā Ā 

2011-12: 98.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Ā 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Made it out to Lake Goodwin for the first time since Octoberā€¦The water level isĀ slightlyĀ higher than the last time I was here. Forgot to put my fishing boat up on the concrete, oops. Seems okay and will deal with it in the spring. Nice day!Ā 

DF52869B-18FF-40A6-AC0C-88B32A762175.jpeg

3518844B-9297-49CF-A375-643590EF022E.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
  • Like 1

Elevation 580ā€™ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40F with some light rain.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanĀ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Ā (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Ā (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25ā€
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Ā (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Ā 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pathetic GFS run.Ā 

  • Sick 1
  • Shivering 1

SnowfallĀ  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2021-22: 91.46"Ā 

2020-21: 12.0"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2012-13: 78.45Ā Ā 

2011-12: 98.5"Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā  Ā 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Ā 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter storm warning for 6-15 inches. 18z GFS has finally got the axis placement closer to the other models and nails me with 20 inches. 18z RGEM was at 22 inches and 18z Euro was at 17.

It was dumping snow for a little while but has lightened up a bit now. Looks like a couple inches already but the big stuff will be rolling through tomorrow morning. Thundersnow and 2-3 inch/hr rates are possible by then. It should be a doozy.

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2941600.png

rgem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2930800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2898400.png

Saw this and thought of you...Ā 

Screenshot_20230102-161716_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All of the big stations had a nice minus departure today.Ā  I'll take anything on the cold side of the ledger we can get in January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z GEFS came out pretty good.Ā  Decent -PNA late in the run.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

250 inches of snow in placesšŸ˜Æ

14BC1B1A-7F2A-4A60-AD5F-C23C6E36E43A.png

C7B13FA7-E685-43CE-A92F-18946D96FB62.png

Pretty ridiculous how fast Mother Nature can even things out.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Ā 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Ā 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Ā 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...