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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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I think we all need some eye candy right now! 😍

1675987200-3ZZQ14lBREY.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All of the big stations had a nice minus departure today.  I'll take anything on the cold side of the ledger we can get in January.

Nice 50 degree high at SEA with some sunshine.     If its not cold and snowing then low 50s and sun is pretty enjoyable.    Tangible experiences are more important to me than just stats.  ;) 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we all need some eye candy right now! 😍

1675987200-3ZZQ14lBREY.png

Looks nice. Snowing up in February so

it might happen. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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38/30 today. Temp dropped to 34 when precip moved in but it was just rain. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow 

 

 

Wow!  Almost sounds like Jan 1862.  Too bad we don't have the cold NW piece of the puzzle as well.  Maybe that will just be delayed a bit though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

Great news.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks nice. Snowing up in February so

it might happen. 

I still think a decent chunk of this month is in play.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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PDX 44/32

SLE 40/34

EUG 43/35

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still think a decent chunk of this month is in play.

Hmm… IDK about decent chunk. Maybe a few days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Can't ever recall all of CA getting hit like this.  The map is only 90 hours worth.

1673006400-zyb3eBptpFo.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmm… IDK about decent chunk. Maybe a few days. 

I was thinking 7 to 10 days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX 44/32

SLE 40/34

EUG 43/35

Kind of nice surprise today.  Other than the lame max at SEA...pretty decent.  Even they dropped to 29 on the low though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm sure the media is going to jump all over this CA event and say it's unprecedented and due to man caused climate change.  I have one number that says otherwise.  1862.  Probably some others as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice 50 degree high at SEA with some sunshine.     If its not cold and snowing then low 50s and sun is pretty enjoyable.    Tangible experiences are more important to me than just stats.  ;) 

43 down here, but off and on sunshine all day.  It's nice to get some sunshine in winter...vs. rain every day.  Variety is the spice of life!

variety-is-the-spice-of-life.jpg

Edited by Tyler Mode
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48 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter storm warning for 6-15 inches. 18z GFS has finally got the axis placement closer to the other models and nails me with 20 inches. 18z RGEM was at 22 inches and 18z Euro was at 17.

It was dumping snow for a little while but has lightened up a bit now. Looks like a couple inches already but the big stuff will be rolling through tomorrow morning. Thundersnow and 2-3 inch/hr rates are possible by then. It should be a doozy.

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2941600.png

rgem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2930800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2898400.png

Do you have any input on which town would be snowier overall, Rapid City or Sioux Falls? Tough decisions on a place to move if SD is still on my list in 5 years. As much as I'd love the Black Hills, they can kinda screw Rapid City of the heaviest snow. 

𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Do you have any input on which town would be snowier overall, Rapid City or Sioux Falls? Tough decisions on a place to move if SD is still on my list in 5 years. As much as I'd love the Black Hills, they can kinda screw Rapid City of the heaviest snow. 

Have you been to both cities? There are a million other reasons to give Rapid the nod. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Rapid City averages 48” of snow a year. Sioux Falls 45”. Sioux Falls is much colder on average in the winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

This has been repeated but I'm not really seeing much of a change down here from yesterday-- EC showing gusts 60+ at face value for the Cascade crest usually indicates a rather widespread downslope event. 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Oof 

5CC9DED8-7BD3-48AF-9C9B-63BEB4D0CCD3.png

19BFA5F7-6EE3-469C-B20E-7047326E88F7.png

15ED3844-2FC8-4BF4-8EFF-76DCCAEA6AE5.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure the media is going to jump all over this CA event and say it's unprecedented and due to man caused climate change.  I have one number that says otherwise.  1862.  Probably some others as well.

What are some of the numbers out of 1862 in CA?

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

Has the SSW started yet?

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18z CFS both mean and control and the GEFS extended are good today.  Looks like late Jan / Early Feb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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55 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Has the SSW started yet?

No.  It starts later this week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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39 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Sonora in the Sierra foothills at 2200' had over 100" of rain in 60 days. they average 32" a year. 

I knew it was over the top, but wow!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Rapid City gets about 3 inches more snow annually than Sioux Falls (48.5 vs 45.3) so it's not all that different. From what I've read and heard, generally west river (west of the Missouri) is a little more tame weather wise while east river gets more of the extremes, all relative of course. I don't know what Rapid City has experienced this year for sure but SE SD has gotten derechos, tornadoes, a blizzard, a haboob, ice storm, etc. Pretty amazing if you're a weather nerd.

Some of that stuff would actually be too much for me.  The continental climate areas of the NW west of about 110W would be my ideal climate.  Either that or the steppe transition areas.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Most of the Central Valley turned into a lake in that event. If it happened today, a million or more people would be displaced.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm

There were actually worse ones before 1862.  Wowzers!

That's the thing that kills me about the present narrative concerning climate change.  REALLY bad stuff used to happen.  Worse than recent events we have seen in fact.  I forget where I read it, but some climate scientists make the claim the weather has only been as good as present 5% of the time in the last million years.  That pretty much leaves nowhere to go but down.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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