Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: There were actually worse ones before 1862. Wowzers! That's the thing that kills me about the present narrative concerning climate change. REALLY bad stuff used to happen. Worse than recent events we have seen in fact. I forget where I read it, but some climate scientists make the claim the weather has only been as good as present 5% of the time in the last million years. That pretty much leaves nowhere to go but down. Yes, extremes happened before human-caused climate change. But global warming still makes precipitation extremes more likely. The two are not mutually exclusive. 5 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: only two weeks until we start seeing this show up on the regular GFS! Then maybe we'll see more Euro runs like this 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Currently 37.9. Got down to 28 this morning. Looking like I will score another freeze tonight possibly another one tomorrow night! Also weather.com is saying a rain/snow mix will happen later tonight and it does look like there’s some precip on the radar off the coast but I have a good feeling nothing would stick if there was snow. Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oof Where is that from? BLI would be blown off the face of the Earth if that verified! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Currently 37.9. Got down to 28 this morning. Looking like I will score another freeze tonight possibly another one tomorrow night! Also weather.com is saying a rain/snow mix will happen later tonight and it does look like there’s some precip on the radar off the coast but I have a good feeling nothing would stick if there was snow. Even the NWS mentioned some possible low snow levels on a couple of days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Where is that from? BLI would be blown off the face of the Earth if that verified! It was the 12z CFS Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Yes, extremes happened before human-caused climate change. But global warming still makes precipitation extremes more likely. The two are not mutually exclusive. There's simply no proof until we surpass those uber extreme events from the past. Everything is theoretical at this point. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It was the 12z CFS Wow. I had only looked at the 7 day running averages on that. The 18z CFS was decent as well BTW. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: There's simply no proof until we surpass those uber extreme events from the past. Everything is theoretical at this point. No proof of what? That warmer air can hold more moisture? Extreme rainfall events have already increased in recent decades! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: No proof of what? That warmer air can hold more moisture? Extreme rainfall events have already increased in recent decades! Not in Eugene. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Whatever. It's consistently damp, not really torching. Some transient wind events coming through. The mountains across the west are doing great on snowpack and are actively receiving more, the bulk of which is headed to regions of the west most harshly impacted by drought this last decade. Let this pattern do its thang. The goodies will come again this winter. 9 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: No. It starts later this week. 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 I may have underestimated in my mind the pure extent of rainfall incoming for the southwestern US. Some insane numbers popping up. They've asked for a drought buster, well here it comes.. 7 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Nice that there is an actual Alaska ridge on this run. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 That's some crazy precipitation values. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 CFS still thinking things get more interesting around the 20th and after. Fingers crossed! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: CFS still thinking things get more interesting around the 20th and after. Fingers crossed! Going off 18z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Going off 18z? Yep! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHawks Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 20th works for me I will be flying back from Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 45/32 todays…46/33 yesterday. Amazing sunrise this morning. Legit no filter it was that vibrant. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Well, at least heights are rising in Alaska by the end of the run. Progression like on GEFS extended is possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 First positive signs for a dropping PNA (GFS) in the extended that I have seen in a while. Oh and I got a little drone for Christmas, those things have quite a learning curve to fly, luckily when I hit the cedar tree it bounced all the way down the branches instead of getting Stuck way up there. 8 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Light rain. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 hours ago, Omegaraptor said: Wow. Just utterly relentless rain in CA. dey stole er weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: dey stole er weather We are literally just going to get their leftovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: We are literally just going to get their leftovers. yeah when do you ever see 20 inches of rain show up for WA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Uh... 34 degrees in Bothell, dewpoint in upper 20s, precip approaching. Very shallow cold air? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 The CFS is really liking things right now. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Uh... 34 degrees in Bothell, dewpoint in upper 20s, precip approaching. Very shallow cold air? There actually is a shot at some snow mixing in tonight. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: We are literally just going to get their leftovers. Yea. The next 2 weeks look pretty lame. Mild with rain at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this. Yeah just slightly below normal temps. But it's a start, maybe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Start of something for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 37 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I mean no temp anomalies to work with, but models show an Alaska ridge after this. Always focus on the 500mb stuff first. The rest will always fall into place. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Always focus on the 500mb stuff first. The rest will always fall into place. But we do need an Alaska ridge to get real negative temp anomalies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 @hawkstwelve Enjoying some streaming Sioux Falls traffic cams this morning and people just cruising around on the roads in a blizzard. On the live stream that light pole in the foreground is swaying back and forth. 6 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Geez. SLE is the worst location sometimes. They hit 47 yesterday evening after and afternoon high of only 40, and they are currently at 45 when pretty much no one else in the willamette valley is over 38. 33.6 here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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