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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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00z CFS was decent. We are still

7-10 days from seeing much on GFS runs. I’m rooting for a big trough to carve out and lots of onshore flow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You spamming these pineapple maps on the forum should be considered a war crime against weather weenies. 

Sometimes I think they should rename this the snow forum. Except torching is relevant for snow, too, because it controls whether we get it or not.

Way I see it is, if Team Snow has no potential on the horizon to root for, might as well cheer on Team Pineapple.

Anyhow, the GFS has recently been trending torchy for Friday afternoon as well:

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-3049600.thumb.png.65b373aa19b62959e8b80b6a055e5a0e.pngprevious_gfs.thumb.png.8acfc25359335054ec3f618b83b94b76.png

And it’s not just me. I checked the NWS forecast for Eugene, and their forecast max for Friday has now been bumped into the upper 50’s. The official forecasters recognize the trend, too.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah it's showtime here and city officials have asked people to not travel but I'm still seeing cars passing by on the main road behind our house. Kinda stupid if you ask me, but nothing new given past recent storms.

Definitely a different mentality around here for snow. While there was still the mad dash at Costco yesterday once word got out, just like at Costcos in the PNW before a storm, for the most part people expect to continue on with their daily lives shortly after the storm rolls through. It's not a "the city will shutdown for a week" type of vibe but instead like a "ok let's dig out and move on" feel. Certainly helps we have the plows and gear to maintain roads better than Seattle but I gotta say, it's kind of fun when the city shuts down because of a snowstorm. I miss it just a bit.

This cam is just across the border from Sioux Falls in SW MN... I can see why travel is not advised.

 

C30346-v3.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking at the models there are going to be plenty of torch opportunities the next few weeks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Dropped to 32 before I left for work this morning. Nice to see. 

Looks like fairly widespread light snow in Eastern Oregon and even the Central Gorge this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the models there are going to be plenty of torch opportunities the next few weeks. 

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Haha it is possible. Some of the longer range models show some opportunities that final week of the month, but personally I will be gone the 25-30th, so I wouldn't mind if it waits. I do think it is coming though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That weekend system looks like the real deal for California. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 hours ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

dey stole er weather

That's great for CA. Currently it is 29F outside. Cool and overcast. Back to work soon and it feels like a Monday. January is our busiest time.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Probably. I’d bet the next round of cold ends up in the east and then the pattern retrogrades towards late January or early February 

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Geez that is a horrendous GFS run. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, North_County said:

It's actually even sticking already, which shocked me a bit.

Third and final update. This snowfall rate has really become kind of impressive all of a sudden....all things considered. Much prettier to watch than last month's snow. (You probably have to zoom in a bit to see the actual snowflakes in the second picture)20230103_094500.thumb.jpg.347928e98886752e39c0fd607be75211.jpg20230103_094001.thumb.jpg.505181eee64e9bb32f2f6267970d6b15.jpg

Edited by North_County
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15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

CFS has been quite persistent for this time frame. 

floop-cfs-2023010300.500h_anom_na.gif

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking at ENSO, I think next winter might squeak in a weak Nino. Wouldn't be shocked to see a warm neutral. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Added up the final December stats. We over achieved a little on temps last week, and ended the month with a mean of 36.7, just one tenth of a degree cooler than November. 9.10" of precip, which is a little over 2" below average, and 3.4" of snowfall. 

We only had 17 freezes, which was a little disappointing after 23 in November, we did not have a freeze the final 8 days of the month. At least we have started January with 3 straight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We're getting a few flakes. Wife checked for me and says it's graupel.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even better positive signs for the PNA drop later in the month over yesterday’s forecast. 

B2D256B6-BC0A-42D7-9758-7EEF851A5317.jpeg

Daily fuzz!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The end of the GFS isn't horrible. Just looking at the models though that mid-range is going to be UGLY and has major torch potential in the Willamette Valley. Hard to say which days, but with those fronts splitting offshore and lows moving up the coast to the north, it seems like there will be at least a few days in there when there is sunshine and enough south wind to mix out any inversions. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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All eyes now turn towards the 12z CFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling if we get a good round of snow and cold it’ll end up starting on the night of the 31st…and January spites us again. Last year the goodies ended on January 1st so it’d only be fitting if it went down that way. 

Actually did get some snow in January up this way last year, but it was the slushy, sloppy variety. Even when it was falling it was clear that the cold snap was waning and would soon be over.

Agree with your general outlook. Not really expecting this month to deliver much in the way of snow. If it does, it will probably be in the final few days as part of a cold snap that straddles months.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually did get some snow in January up this way last year, but it was the slushy, sloppy variety. Even when it was falling it was clear that the cold snap was waning and would soon be over.

Agree with your general outlook. Not really expecting this month to deliver much in the way of snow. If it does, it will probably be in the final few days as part of a cold snap that straddles months.

We had some wet snow a couple times in early January last year too…but it never accumulated at my house. Did accumulate down south of here in parkland where I was working though. We will see what happens…I’m pretty content with how this winter has gone even if we don’t see anything in a few weeks (I think we will though) 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

R.I.P Ken block. I know many of you don't know who is is but he was one of the best race car drivers in the world, rally car racing and a bunch of other stuff. Lost his life in a snowmobile crash. 

My son woke up this morning telling me all about this... I had never heard of him.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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