PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

SEA has reached 50 again today... that is the 7th day at 50+ degrees since Christmas Eve.  I remember thinking that there would only be a couple 50-degree days back then.   

And it looks like some more coming as well.  

[Cloud]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Currently mixing a lot better than most models thought. Up to 50F at KSEA. GFS had us still clinging onto the upper 30s through the afternoon.

 

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA has reached 50 again today... that is the 9th day at 50+ degrees since Christmas Eve.    That is 75% of the days over the last 12 days.    I remember thinking that there would only be a couple 50 degrees days back then.   

And it looks like some more coming as well.  

Disgusting. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

 

Disgusting. 

Good news... I miscounted and it is only the 7th day above 50.   I updated my post but you quoted me too fast.  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news... I miscounted and it is only the 7th day above 50.   I updated my post but you quoted me too fast.  

Gotcha!!! 

[Doinko]

January is running -1.1 degrees at Portland. Curse broken?????????

[TT-SEA]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Currently mixing a lot better than most models thought. Up to 50F at KSEA. GFS had us still clinging onto the upper 30s through the afternoon.

GFS makes this mistake all the time with offshore flow.   Apparently assuming the Cascades don't exist and we have the same weather as central WA.   

[FroYoBro]

I’m pretty good with rainy weather usually, but these current conditions aren’t real fun for me and the dogs.
 

40 degrees, raining hard, and some big gusts from the east. The wind makes the rain feel so much colder. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showed 45 at SEA today and its up to 50.    It shows 52 tomorrow and 53 on Friday so its likely going to be even warmer the next 2 days.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS makes this mistake all the time with offshore flow.   Apparently assuming the Cascades don't exist and we have the same weather as central WA.   

Euro aint doing too hot for this situation either? 47 at 1pm for on the 12z Euro, 45 for the 18z GFS. 

[Cloud]

52 at BFI... we're torching folks. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Euro aint doing too hot for this situation either? 47 at 1pm for on the 12z Euro, 45 for the 18z GFS. 

Strange... the 12Z ECMWF meteogram showed only 45 at SEA today.

 

[snow_wizard]

Strongest wind here so far today has been 34.  Pretty tame compared to what could have been if the storm was a bit closer to the coast.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Strange... the 12Z ECMWF meteogram showed only 45 at SEA today.

 

What's it showing for PDX? Cooler here because of the Gorge today, only around 40 right now

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Strange... the 12Z ECMWF meteogram showed only 45 at SEA today.

 

For clarification, using the pivotol map. I think the 47 at 1pm is for Seattle (downtown). They don't really show SEA on there. 

[Doinko]

Lol the Dalles

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 41F and cloudy for now. The southerlies haven't busted through yet.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS makes this mistake all the time with offshore flow.   Apparently assuming the Cascades don't exist and we have the same weather as central WA.   

IDK, GFS has sfc pressures at Snoqualmie Pass just a hair under 900mb, that tracks pretty well with the actual terrain. I think it simply initializes the airmass far too cold. It thinks that area is in the low-mid 20s (yes, even for 00z today. I am aware this sounding is for ~10am) while real time obs shows temps into the low 30s over the pass, and even warmer over nearby exposed ridgetops at a similar elevation (a more faithful airmass sampling given the lack of sfc friction.)

Temps of around 30-35F over the pass pretty directly correspond with temps of around 45-50F over the sound given dry adiabatic warming. Add in an extra 2-7F of sfc heating from the sun and it makes sense. GFS just got everything wrong on initialization today. Where have we seen this before?

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's it showing for PDX? Cooler here because of the Gorge today, only around 40 right now

Showed 43 today.

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Lol the Dalles

Rich Marriot breathing on the sensor?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Rich Marriot breathing on the sensor?

Oh shitt now it rubbed off on you lol!!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oh shitt now it rubbed off on you lol!!

It's a great bit

[Christensen87]

Interesting. Was really windy this morning, but now dead calm. Heading to Enumclaw in an hour for the night. 

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Interesting. Was really windy this morning, but now dead calm. Heading to Enumclaw in an hour for the night. 

They had a 49 mph gust in the last hour. Likely to be rocking and rolling there tonight.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ENCW1

[Requiem]

EURO showed this lull in winds relatively well (at least down here). It should pick up by around 4 and peak into the overnight hours with some pretty strong gusts.

[snow_wizard]

SEA is so lame.  I have no idea how they made 50 again today.  Here it has only hit 50 a few times in the past 6 weeks,  Only 46 today.  With east wind events it always gets cooler the further east you go of course, assuming you're talking about winter.

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

EURO showed this lull in winds relatively well (at least down here). It should pick up by around 4 and peak into the overnight hours with some pretty strong gusts.

Just started picking up for me at least, getting some strong gusts

[Blizzard777]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Been a long time since we have seen California lit up like a Christmas tree while we are mostly in the white! 

Supposed to be my rout home next week!   Monitoring 

[Blizzard777]

Yesterday enjoyed some more snow here in Prescott and today just blah.  
Did a little hike in it as well.   This is Willow Creek Reservoir next to Watson Lake (Watson lake is a popular lake to visit).  

[Slushy Inch]

Weird pattern brings negative anomalies. 

[Seattle]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA is so lame.  I have no idea how they made 50 again today.  Here it has only hit 50 a few times in the past 6 weeks,  Only 46 today.  With east wind events it always gets cooler the further east you go of course, assuming you're talking about winter.

To be fair, it is not just SEA that's hitting 50 today. Pretty much most of central and south king county are torching. Hit 51 nearby my house in north Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA is so lame.  I have no idea how they made 50 again today.  Here it has only hit 50 a few times in the past 6 weeks,  Only 46 today.  With east wind events it always gets cooler the further east you go of course, assuming you're talking about winter.

I have no idea how your area has been so cold... the high today in North Bend was 51.  

 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA is so lame.  I have no idea how they made 50 again today.  Here it has only hit 50 a few times in the past 6 weeks,  Only 46 today.  With east wind events it always gets cooler the further east you go of course, assuming you're talking about winter.

Also... Enumclaw is at 49 and they are farther east and in the heart of the outflow wind today.

[Doinko]

Down to 42 at PDX after a high of at least 45. 40 degrees here

[TT-SEA]

Its nearly calm up here in my area... but son said its much more windy down in the Snoqualmie Valley right now than it is up here.    I suspected my area would be protected today based on past events like this one.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea how your area has been so cold... the high today in North Bend was 51.  

 

43 at home, just looked.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its nearly calm up here in my area... but son said its much more windy down in the Snoqualmie Valley right now than it is up here.    I suspected my area would be protected today based on past events like this one.  

This seems like some of the strongest east wind I've seen while it's raining. Usually the strong east wind is with sun or with snow/ice

[TT-SEA]

Today is also the 7th day at 50+ degrees in North Bend since Christmas Eve... which is the same as SEA.     

[HuskyMaestro]

First day for one of my classes at UWT went well. But during icebreakers, some dude went "Hi I'm ____ and I hate snow". 

Dunno why that actually irritated me and made me wonder who'd even introduce themselves like that. We live in Tacoma, not godd*mn Buffalo.

[Hawksfan2008]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today is also the 7th day at 50+ degrees in North Bend since Christmas Eve... which is the same as SEA.     

I am becoming more and more fascinated with how different your area is than mine! Very windy here. Tree snapped in half across the street about an hour ago. Power out now… 

[snow_wizard]

Just had a gust to 38.