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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

I’d expect Tim to post this GOA trough garbage not you 

yea i should have just posted the end because i am curious to see how the ensembles bridge make the transition to what the extended (mostly GEEFS) has been showing...sorta looks like EPS is shutting things down at the end but still nothing close it seems. 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

yea i should have just posted the end because i am curious to see how the ensembles bridge make the transition to what the extended (mostly GEEFS) has been showing...sorta looks like EPS is shutting things down at the end but still nothing close it seems. 

Yep…still a long ways to go until we start seeing some interesting stuff within 10 days on the OP models. 

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9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

yea i should have just posted the end because i am curious to see how the ensembles bridge make the transition to what the extended (mostly GEEFS) has been showing...sorta looks like EPS is shutting things down at the end but still nothing close it seems. 

The GOA trough retrograde is well agreed upon, just a matter of where the ridge gets pumped up.

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21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

55 at SEA-TAC and 43 at home, Still doing the cool pool thing over here. I will look when i get home but i don't think it has been 50 degrees at home since late October.

54 degrees in North Bend... 8th day over 50 just since Christmas Eve let alone October.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I will have snow on the ground at some point in January! MBG! It’s coming! 
Granted it will probably be January 31st and on into February…But it’s coming!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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OT... but the affidavit released on the Idaho murder suspect is fascinating.   He is no criminal mastermind.   Thankfully we have DNA technology and cell phone data.   So much was made of poor investigative work before the arrest but they got him.  Hopefully he doesn't get the death penalty because rotting in isolation in a cement cage for the rest of his life would be better.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

OT... but the affidavit released on the Idaho murder suspect is fascinating.   He is no criminal mastermind.   Thankfully we have DNA technology and cell phone data.   So much was made of poor investigative work before the arrest but they got him.  Hopefully he doesn't get the death penalty because rotting in isolation in a cement cage for the rest of his life would be better.   

I agree 100% 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ended up with about 16 inches from the storm. With our existing 5-8 inches on the ground, it adds up to... A whole lotta snow. Makes our little neighborhood seem like it should be in the mountains. Our golden is absolutely loving her first experience with the snow. She can't get enough!

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Truly awesome pics!    Looks gorgeous.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nothing like real powder. Amazing how much traction it has compared to slush. That looks like the kind of snow we get at my property. Love it!

But I have seen even that type of snow turn into bad traction on the roads after a few days of sun and wind with temps below freezing and constant traffic.  It becomes a shiny smooth surface.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But I have seen even that type of snow turn into bad traction on the roads after a few days of sun and wind with temps below freezing and constant traffic.  It becomes a shiny smooth surface.   

thats basically how our driveway in twisp turns into after a few weeks of winter. Then when we get any additional snow on top of it its slicker than heck. And if your happen to veer off the hard compact "ruts" from the first trips up the soft sides are just like quicksand and suck you sideways lolz

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We have reached the 60F-burger!!

  • Sun 3

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Really outstanding weeklies. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Conflicting reports! 

The fact is January was never going to deliver. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Maybe the only thing that could mess up our February would be an SSW.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Inverse of Feb 2019?  SSW saved our winter during a Nino. 

I’m kidding. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any significant shift in the models will not take place until the house has a speaker.

2025?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150797/weather-whiplash

Interesting read on the December cold snap and the behavior of the polar vortex. Doesn't quite connect the dots for the reader about how the structure of the polar vortex is related to temperatures at the surface, but still kind of interesting. Forum favorite Judah Cohen is quoted.

EDIT: Another article explains that we don't really understand how the polar vortex is related to temperatures at the surface. Sometimes arctic air spills south without a polar vortex disruption, and sometime polar vortex disruptions happen without arctic air spilling south... https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I still contend 2020-21 counts as a dud, even for W. WA. 

I know this has already been belabored, but the only thing I even remember from that winter is the 3-day period that produced the best snowstorm of my life. And there's no way you can count that winter close to a dud, even if it was a turd pretty much before and after. 11" of dry powder that fell with temps between 20-23 followed by another 2-3" of wet snow the following day... It was magical, even if quite short in duration. 

Meanwhile the torch is ON. 55 after hitting 56 here in N. Seattle. Yesterday it hit 53. 🍍

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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5 minutes ago, Seattle said:

I know this has already been belabored, but the only thing I even remember from that winter is the 3-day period that produced the best snowstorm of my life. And there's no way you can count that winter close to a dud, even if it was a turd pretty much before and after. 11" of dry powder that fell with temps between 20-23 followed by another 2-3" of wet snow the following day... It was magical, even if quite short in duration. 

Meanwhile the torch is ON. 55 after hitting 56 here in N. Seattle. Yesterday it hit 53. 🍍

It was a dud for 75% of the forum. Anything south of Seattle go skunked. The Artic air got hung up around Everett I think. 

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8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It was a dud for 75% of the forum. Anything south of Seattle go skunked. The Artic air got hung up around Everett I think. 

I think you’re mixing up January 2020 and February 2021. February 2021 is what he/she is talking about…which was the huge shortlived snowstorm. 

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