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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Due for a dry spell? What have we been in the last week to 10 days if not a "dry" spell. Sure it's been on and off showers, but it's been significantly drier than normal throughout the area.

202301_MonthPNormDEWS_PACNW.thumb.png.e8eadec7a163c90b275dec97cae4b854.png

Yeah it really hasn’t been that wet overall since 10/20 when the pattern shifted. 14.57” of rain since 10/20 which sounds like a lot but for here not really. Normal rainfall from 10/20-1/10 period is 17”. Coming off of a long dry spell you’d think more of a rebound was coming. 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it really hasn’t been that wet overall since 10/20 when the pattern shifted. 14.57” of rain since 10/20 which sounds like a lot but for here not really. Normal rainfall from 10/20-1/10 period is 17”. Coming off of a long dry spell you’d think more of a rebound was coming. 

November - January is the heart of the rainy season.    Those 3 months provide about half our annual rainfall average.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weeklies in.  Each image is a 5 day average 

 

1083012113_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif

Love the slosh back & forth as MTs/AAM transports cycle through the system.

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

More members and higher resolution is not necessarily better when it comes to numerical modeling. We need to know why the models are getting certain things wrong to know if this will make an improvement. 

I’m not sure I agree. It will at least improve consistency and better handle topography/near-surface details.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

November - January is the heart of the rainy season.    Those 3 months provide about half our annual rainfall average.   

November was a bit below average and December was a little above. Not super dry but there hasn’t really been any very wet stretches like we normally see at some point. We’ve had 4.55” since Christmas Eve…which is the wettest period so far this fall/winter but pretty typical. Though it looks pretty wet coming up. 

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53 minutes ago, Doinko said:

53/39 today at PDX. Sunny for a lot of the day with some heavy rain and very windy in the morning but unfortunately no thunder

I thought I saw that PDX reported thunder today. Heard some distant thunder here a little after noon.

Wind never switched to southerly here so ended up with a cooler day than PDX. 49/39 spread.

 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I thought I saw that PDX reported thunder today. Heard some distant thunder here a little after noon.

Wind never switched to southerly here so ended up with a cooler day than PDX. 49/39 spread.

 

Yeah I think there might've been thunder there but nothing here at least. I'm really hoping for a good thunderstorm outbreak this spring/summer/fall. We had a huge downpour if 2" in an hour on 9/8/2019, a tornado a few miles away on 9/7/2019 and then an amazing thunderstorm with huge hail and a bunch of lightning on 7/1/2019. I don't remember much since, besides some thunder in March 2021, a lightning strike in the distance this August and a loud rumble of thunder this September. I might've been asleep for some other events.

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Its been raining here pretty much non stop since new year. rained from friday afternoon through sunday at 3pm. Feels like we need a dry spell out here around the canal. 5 inches of rain since december 31.

Wow! I didn't realize it had been that wet out there! I've picked up 0.33" of rain so far in January and today was my 6th day in a row with temperatures 50F or higher so it's been a pretty underwhelming month here so far.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Love the slosh back & forth as MTs/AAM transports cycle through the system.

I’m not sure I agree. It will at least improve consistency and better handle topography/near-surface details.

We'll find out. Let's check back in a year and see if there's any appreciable change in EPS model skill after the update. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

 

It’s coming. The real deal. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Wow! I didn't realize it had been that wet out there! I've picked up 0.33" of rain so far in January and today was my 6th day in a row with temperatures 50F or higher so it's been a pretty underwhelming month here so far.

Yes sometimes it can be much different here, it hasn't been 50 degrees or warmer here since I think November 4th.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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That little storm this morning kind was kind of sneaky.  Pretty rare that something of that magnitude happens without me realizing it's coming.  I looked at the surface gradient progs last night and they didn't seem all that impressive.  In the end a little bomb formed in the southerly flow aloft off the coast and exceeded model expectations.  East wind events are a dime a dozen this season it seems.  The trees around here are just kind of yawning about them now with almost no branches falling after so many previous events already this season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Came here to post this… look like you’re on it! Gonna be interesting to see if that cold make it to NA. 

If it does Feb could be something special.  Last month the really crazy cold was in NA, and this month Asia.  All in all it appears Russia has had a crazy cold winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

If it does Feb could be something special.  Last month the really crazy cold was in NA, and this month Asia.  All in all it appears Russia has had a crazy cold winter.

Hard to dislodge it without an SSW. But Feb 2021 was preceded by extreme cold in Asia.

Remember when models showed the Arctic air going to CA instead of TX?

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Control is too progressive. Too many blasts. And no mountain ranges. 

AC705F07-B8AE-4827-B7B8-983E8D6F1C8B.gif

That's why I look at the 500mb maps.  Mountains have little effect on that stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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