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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today.    Its not even close.    

We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years.   But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back.    And a warming climate is accelerating that payback.  The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature.

In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable.  

100+ years ago fires were much worse. People today would think it was the apocalypse. 

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10 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I shoulda went somewhere this morning...nice sunrise complete with a rainbow.

322474195_1237914253828672_2850075064151270098_n.jpg

325365864_696256012131084_4752586597630177583_n.jpg

Second morning in a row here with rain ending just before dawn and clearing skies as the sun comes up.    Good timing. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not a bad Gfs run.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Work parking lot snow berm is getting intimidating! 

20230111_065659.jpg

You should share that snow berm picture with the dog on this site that you posted on WW. Almost looked like Moss Man's house.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

In its natural state... western fires and smoke were much worse than what we see today.    Its not even close.    

We decided in the 1940s to go full board on fire suppression and that worked well for about 60 years.   But you can only hold back nature so long and now we have a massive fire deficit to pay back.    And a warming climate is accelerating that payback.  The absolute worst fire years now pale in comparison to acreage burned before we started messing with nature.

In other words... what you and others remember from childhood was unfortunately never going to be sustainable.  

I hope Cliff Mass and the Seattle Times read this the next time they try to write about wildfires. Great explanation that incorporates multiple causes. 

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9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

You should share that snow berm picture with the dog on this site that you posted on WW. Almost looked like Moss Man's house.

Moss Man doesn't get berms like that, at least not from street plowing.   I do, though, and it makes getting in and out of your driveway a real challenge.  The driveway gets narrower and narrower, and you can't see into the street that you are backing into. 

Shoveling and snowblowing becomes a challenge when you have to throw the snow over a 7-10 foot berm.  And if you don't get it over, it just slides right down to where it was.

So far about 100 inches of snow this winter with 3 to 5 more coming.

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Pretty good GFS run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. 

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5 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. 

Mass is a rube, no shock there

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9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. 

And Tim’s post was different how? 😂

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s coming.

#colderJanuarythan2022

Seems aspirational. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And Tim’s post was different how? 😂

How would you describe the situation any differently?   Decades of fire suppression and a warming climate contributing to an increase in fires.    That is hyperbole and hand waving?    Seems pretty obvious and factual to me.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It gave a more prominent role to global warming, alongside forest management, which is in line with the findings in the peer-reviewed literature (as I remember it). 

Apparently Jesse has all the answers and those don't involve the factors we mentioned... which include decades of fire suppression policies and climate change.     I would love to hear what is really involved from the true expert.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Already 52 degrees here before 11am. 
January!

Rain on the way 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

He downplays the global warming effect with no evidence. Formal attribution studies have been done on this showing that global warming is an important factor, along with human activity, ecology, and forest management. Cliff uses anecdotes and hand-waving to make his points. That's fine for a blog, a forum chat or a bar. 

Tim shared a peer-reviewed study that was very comprehensive in its methodology. IIRC you had to go back to the Little Ice Age to find a period of time as fire-free as most of the 20th century was. It looked to me like a very comprehensive study and my retraction searches came up dry (i.e. no retractions, its conclusions still stand).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

should I start paying attention to the models again yet?

 

pepto in view?

Might be time to start looking at the normal ensemble runs instead of the long range ones. GEFS shows a good dump of cold air into NAm but it will get pushed east (at least initially) with out more established blocking on our side? i'm just guessing. 

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Might be time to start looking at the normal ensemble runs instead of the long range ones. GEFS shows a good dump of cold air into NAm but it will get pushed east (at least initially) with out more established blocking on our side? i'm just guessing. 

Just nice to be back in the game. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF says some snow for Randy with that trough later next week...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-4151200.png

I’m in the blue! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

through end of the run. promising! Canadian ensembles show some cold air further east with blocking centered over us instead...probably more realistic than assuming perfectly placed blocking for us immediately. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-1673438400-1674324000-1674820800-10.gif

Yeah you’d think we would start out with a ridge over us…or just offshore before retrograding west later on. 

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