PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SouthHillFrosty]

Won’t be able to post much more tonight, I am bar hopping in Tacoma. Hopefully this night goes better then New Year’s Eve. My buddy got jumped and his jaw broken 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This looks nice

Tim/Randy special

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Finally hit 50 today here, first time since November 4th! That was an impressive run.

First day the east wind stopped here too.  Has to be related.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Terreboner2 said:

Looks like 1000-1500' ft snow levels west of the Cascades.  Sorry guys.

You do realize it's a very extended ensemble mean.  Not to be taken at face value.  More important than details like that would be the overall pattern and the potential. IIRC the long term ensemble mean looked similar before the Feb 2019 event 

But for sure a snowy pattern for the mountain and for my side of the state 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Tim/Randy special

Kind of looks like more than that.

[snow_wizard]

Dare I say the second half of January has a fair chance of coming in below normal? 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Peshastin is much drier than Leavenworth though.  A really sharp transition zone there.  That town is actually on my list of places I would like to live.

Peshastin is drier, but not significantly drier.  It is just 4 miles from downtown Leavenworth.  I always joke that the "budding metropolis of Peshastin (as a friend calls it) is so small you can throw a rock from the "Welcome to Peshastin" sign and hit the "Thanks for visiting Peshastin, please come again".

Cashmere, on the other hand, is quite a bit drier.  You really notice it in the vegetation.  Around Leavenworth the hills are filled with lush forests, where the hills around Cashmere are filled with dried, brown sagebrush.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dare I say the second half of January has a fair chance of coming in below normal? 

BTW, I heard back from Rebecca Stevenson, and she would definitely like to pass any information you have about the 1861 winter to Larry Schick. and about the newspaper in DuPont.  

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Peshastin is drier, but not significantly drier.  It is just 4 miles from downtown Leavenworth.  I always joke that the "budding metropolis of Peshastin (as a friend calls it) is so small you can throw a rock from the "Welcome to Peshastin" sign and hit the "Thanks for visiting Peshastin, please come again".

Cashmere, on the other hand, is quite a bit drier.  You really notice it in the vegetation.  Around Leavenworth the hills are filled with lush forests, where the hills around Cashmere are filled with dried, brown sagebrush.

 

Yeah...I think Peshastin is the perfect transition zone type area I'm looking for.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Won’t be able to post much more tonight, I am bar hopping in Tacoma. Hopefully this night goes better then New Year’s Eve. My buddy got jumped and his jaw broken 

I was sucker punched in a bar a couple

weeks before December 2008… No broken jaw… Analog?! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I think Peshastin is the perfect transition zone type area I'm looking for.

One nice thing is you mostly avoid the often heavy traffic that Leavenworth has, and real estate should be a bit more affordable, though probably not "cheap".  

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

BTW, I heard back from Rebecca Stevenson, and she would definitely like to pass any information you have about the 1861 winter to Larry Schick. and about the newspaper in DuPont.  

I'll find the link this weekend and pass it on to you.  I've digitized the Fort Steilacoom records I have on microfilm as well.  He might get a kick out of seeing the actual hand written observations.  I'll post those on the forum and you can grab them.  I also have modernized charts for that winter from Fort Vancouver and Fort Steilacoom.  I think I reconstructed the likely snowfall data pretty closely based on the newspaper accounts and the water equivalent obs from Fort Steilacoom.  Fort Vancouver did have some snowfall data in the notes as well.  The notes for both Jan and Feb said there was between 6 and 24 inches of snow on the ground for every single day of Jan and Feb!

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of looks like more than that.

Looks awesome for entire Puget Sound 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll find the link this weekend and pass it on to you.  I've digitized the Fort Steilacoom records I have on microfilm as well.  He might get a kick out of seeing the actual hand written observations.  I'll post those on the forum and you can grab them.  I also have modernized charts for that winter from Fort Vancouver and Fort Steilacoom.  I think I reconstructed the likely snowfall data pretty closely based on the newspaper accounts and the water equivalent obs from Fort Steilacoom.  Fort Vancouver did have some snowfall data in the notes as well.  The notes for both Jan and Feb said there was between 6 and 24 inches of snow on the ground for every single day of Jan and Feb!

Great!  I told her you are a walking encyclopedia of NW weather history.

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is amazing how much colder and snowier the north side of blewett is compared to the south side.

There is usually decent snow on the south side of Blewett down to around the Liberty Cafe though.  I lived just above the Liberty Cafe for the winter of 1981-82 which wasn't a bad one.  So glad I got to experience that!

[joelgombiner]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Peshastin is much drier than Leavenworth though.  A really sharp transition zone there.  That town is actually on my list of places I would like to live.

It's got pinnacles and orchards. A keeper for sure. 

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I think Peshastin is the perfect transition zone type area I'm looking for.

They were stuck in smoke for like 2 months this late summer. I think mostly from the bolt fire or whatever but it was like the last place to clear out. My wife’s cousin also lives in one of the first communities/neighborhoods coming down from blewett on that north side and they have good things to say.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Great!  I told her you are a walking encyclopedia of NW weather history.

I miss the days where statman, Justin, and myself would get going on some really fun tangents on here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I miss the days where statman, Justin, and myself would get going on some really fun tangents on here.

What happened to statman?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What happened to statman?

I think he got bogged down in other commitments.  The guy was pretty amazing.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty nippy.

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I miss the days where statman, Justin, and myself would get going on some really fun tangents on here.

I scrolled through some old threads and really enjoyed them. I've learned a ton about past events through this forum from them and you.

[snow_wizard]

Here's the link for that newspaper I've been talking about.  It has some nice stuff on the winter of 1861-62 and a couple of other good winters in that time frame.

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn88085145/

[RentonHill]

GEM ensembles don’t start the party until the very end

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty nippy.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Terreboner2 said:

The cold air damming is pretty amazing.  Would love someone to do an analysis on these type situations across the country, including Alaska.

CAD leads to ice and snow storms in the Piedmont of the Carolinas/Georgia/Virginia just east of the Appalachians.  I grew up in that vicinity.  We always called it 'The Wedge' 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

They were stuck in smoke for like 2 months this late summer. I think mostly from the bolt fire or whatever but it was like the last place to clear out. My wife’s cousin also lives in one of the first communities/neighborhoods coming down from blewett on that north side and they have good things to say.

It was awful.  It wasnt that big of a fire as far as wildfires go. It was just in a place where the smoke naturally drained into our area, and in a place where they couldn't do much to put it out.  Then we got stuck in the same weather pattern for awhile. 

It started around Sept 10.  We got home from our European holiday on Sept 11, and was told it had just started.  They had to cancel local football games.  It stopped mid October.  Maybe late October, but Halloween was fine.  The week after Halloween we got snow and haven't seen the grass since then.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It started around Sept 10.  We got home from our European holiday on Sept 11, and was told it had just started.  They had to cancel local football games.  It stopped mid October.  Maybe late October, but Halloween was fine.  The week after Halloween we got snow and haven't seen the grass since then.

Fancy!  

[snow_wizard]

Decent GEF run tonight with a number of ensemble members dropping below -10 on the 850s.  I think the forum activity will be picking up soon.

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Here's the link for that newspaper I've been talking about.  It has some nice stuff on the winter of 1861-62 and a couple of other good winters in that time frame.

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn88085145/

This is great... I bookmarked this link.   Its just fascinating to read the newspaper from 160 years ago.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is great... I bookmarked this link.   Its just fascinating to read the newspaper from 160 years ago.  

For sure!  Some of the stuff is just mind blowing.  Things that would absolutely never be able to be printed now.  Also a great look at how vastly different this region was back then.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Yes noticed the same. Bet it changes once we get closer

ECMWF went in the direction of the GFS with that initial trough digging more to the west.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Last part of the EPS 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Last part of the EPS 

Omg it’s happening. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is really getting into this now.  Great control run!  The operational ECMWF looked like it was going places at the end.

[NWbyNW]

[snow_wizard]

Oh boy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh boy!

Holy cow! This could be the real

deal!!! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy cow! This could be the real

deal!!! 

Looks really solid right now.

[NWbyNW]

These first two maps show us the 72hr precipitation totals!  I think it's pretty amazing how much rain the entirety of the West Coast has had.  It doesn't seem often that the Pacific Northwest AND California get wet.  It's nice to see, especially for CA and their drought.  Also that 'rain shadow' NE of the Olympics is pretty apparent. 

The second map is showing snow cover in the US.  Pretty nice to see some deep totals.  California needs that snow and if it doesn't all of a sudden become torchy, maybe some of that snow will stick around in the dry months.