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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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I hope I can find some help at my shop soon, I feel like a train wreck!  It's just me and another guy in the shop and my service advisor in the office right now. It's a nightmare finding good technicians right now and we're very busy. I billed out and repaired 31 vehicles last week and that was just me. We stretch the schedule all we can and most people wait but we're having to tell people no and I hate doing that!! Just venting a bit.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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6 minutes ago, Timmy said:

3269280B-617C-45B3-A02C-52A3026CD478.png

And keeps getting better from there.   Starting to think the last couple days of January might deliver.    Timing is currently moving up on both the GEFS and EPS.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4864000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Impressive!

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4885600.png

Such a strong signal over 15 days out and good agreement with the GEFS and EPS too. I was looking back at some other times we had a mild January and then some cold/snow in February. Looks like the Euro weeklies caught on to the early Feb 2014 event as well in early-mid January

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February gonna deliver again.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I just told my son.   He is up at Whistler this weekend... I guess its a UW tradition over MLK weekend and its packed up there with UW kids.     I told him to enjoy the spring-like weather because cold and snow are coming back before month end.   

This was his response...

 

Screenshot_20230114-103236_Snapchat.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just told my son.   He is up at Whistler this weekend... I guess its a UW tradition over MLK weekend and its packed up there with UW kids.     I told him to enjoy the spring-like weather because cold and snow are coming back before month end.   

This was his response...

 

Screenshot_20230114-103236_Snapchat.jpg

I love that you Snapchat your son. No way would I would have ever let my parents see my Snapchat lol

Edited by SouthHillFrosty
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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I love that you Snapchat your son. No way would I would have ever let my parents see my Snapchat lol

As I mentioned before... they are always on it so I figured it was the best way to communicate with them when they are at school.    They always respond immediately if they are awake.    We also have a family group on there.

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WB not updating now for some reason... but looks like ECMWF is showing lots of cold over the center of the country by day 9.    This set up is primed for retrogression.  

 

ec-fast_z500a_namer_10 (3).png

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10 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Really heavy rained has formed around the western Portland metro area. Can hear it pounding the roof here. 

I was surprised how heavy it has gotten on radar. Looks like it’s slowly moving this way, just some light rain so far. Almost has a deformation zone. like signature to it.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was surprised how heavy it has gotten on radar. Looks like it’s slowly moving this way, just some light rain so far. Almost has a deformation zone. like signature to it.

Yeah it's really dumping rain. Red right over me at this moment.

 

KRTX_0.gif

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End of the ECMWF run... shows the initial GOA ridge reforming to the west at this time.    That will likely be what dumps the next cold trough right into the PNW.

ec-fast_z500a_namer_11.png

ec-fast_T850a_namer_11 (1).png

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26 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Beautiful morning! 

DSCN2131.JPG

DSCN2132.JPG

Wow. Raining down here this morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Currently doing yard work. Love it

These pleasant, warm weather breaks in the winter are just so devastating.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

All the models show much drier conditions in CA after this week.    Looks like it will end being a 3-4 week period of very wet weather down there which was very helpful.   I think they have seen bursts like this is recent years as well.   A strong Nino tends to bring consistent heavy precip over many months.    Best odds are with a strong Nino of course... but nothing is guaranteed.    Ninas can be very wet down there at times and not all Ninos deliver.    

Ninas used to mean generally cool summers here.    But we just had 3 Nina summers in a row and each one has been hotter than the last.    Nature is unpredictable.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_10day-4950400 (1).png

They have not had anything like the last 3 weeks in CA in a long time. San Fran saw their wettest 11 day period on record at one point.

A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

They have not had anything like the last 3 weeks in CA in a long time. San Fran saw their wettest 11 day period on record at one point.

Yes... this is the most impressive burst.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Very solid signal for below normal temps later in the month.  Now we have to wait and see how the details evolve.  Decent chance a lot of places will have three consecutive months with measurable snowfall.  Probably 4 assuming this all goes well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like Monday night is our first good shot at seeing frost.  From there much better prospects than we have seen thus far this month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not sure what I said two posts ago to warrant a laugh, but oh well.

November and December sure went well....

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very solid signal for below normal temps later in the month.  Now we have to wait and see how the details evolve.  Decent chance a lot of places will have three consecutive months with measurable snowfall.  Probably 4 assuming this all goes well.

Seems like you’re getting ahead of yourself a little. Just a few days ago you were bemoaning the winter climate here. It doesn’t always have to be one extreme or the other.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure what I said two posts ago to warrant a laugh, but oh well.

November and December sure went well....

The December cold wave was really impressive. Glad we've seen an arctic intrusion this winter up to this point (compared to 2017/2018/2020), but in terms of snow we've basically seen nothing here. Hopefully we can at least see a few inches in February.

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like Monday night is our first good shot at seeing frost.  From there much better prospects than we have seen thus far this month.

Unrelated but I was wondering, do you have any information about some March events in the 1800s? I was looking up a bunch from the 20th century and some really surprised me like 1951, 1960, and 1906

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