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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... behaving like a Nino.  

I’m not so sure that how California does overall necessarily means a lot for up in WA/OR. They’ve had some major seasons down there where we also scored bigtime. Then there’s been other years that they scored big but not much good up this way. 2010-2011 is a year @AlTahoe mentioned that was a good one up here. IIRC 2004-2005 was a year that was good for California but not so much up north. 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m not so sure that how California does overall necessarily means a lot for up in WA/OR. They’ve had some major seasons down there where we also scored bigtime. Then there’s been other years that they scored big but not much good up this way. 2010-2011 is a year @AlTahoe mentioned that was a good one up here. IIRC 2004-2005 was a year that was good for California but not so much up north. 

2016/2017 was also really wet in January there I think. Except this is what it looked like here
image.png.c0eca7409a6a45d8fd95f2c4372029e0.pngCompared to this
image.png.08d4efe74223d9f02429ecf7ede947ee.png

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of strange not having the GFS play its usual crazy fantasy game during the lead up... the runs have been really boring lately.  

Yea nothing to post….. kinda of boring to post 1in snow maps

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29 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

The Central Sierra snow lab just had their snowiest Nov-Jan on record. Barely beating out 1994-1995. Not sure if that  helps you guys analog wise? 

Up here Feb 1995 shut down but March 1995 was crazy cold and snowy. 

Just saw this.  Amazing, and though there have been problems with the floods, overall its great to see this.

 

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8 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

No idea what this means but it looks cool. 

 

Yep.

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 1989 redux on the table? No probably not, but epic blast? 15% chance.

1989 is actually the closest analog match for the strat/PV evolution considering ENSO. Lol

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies...

 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1673827200-1673827200-1677801600-20.gif

I’m sure we’ll get 90% of our snow in March yet again. Then soar into the 80s a few weeks later, as usual. 

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9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just incessant precipitation and gloom that month. I’m sure Jim would have been DYING to get east of the Cascades.

Actually, January 1950 was a particularly cold and snowy one for the Pacific Northwest, record breaking in fact. It’s often discussed here and frequently viewed as the “gold standard” when it comes to wintry months in the lowlands. In fact, the Portland International Airport recorded their all-time record low minima (-3f) during that protracted stretch of anomalous cold, albeit during very February. 

Edited by Deweydog
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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Actually, January 1950 was a particularly cold and snow one for the Pacific Northwest, record breaking in fact. It’s often discussed here and frequently viewed as the “gold standard” when it comes to wintry months in the lowlands. In fact, the Portland International Airport recorded their all-time record low minima (-3f) during that protracted stretch of anomalous cold, albeit during very February. 

Thank you Scotus Hypodermic.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Currently dropping. Now just a hair below 30F.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Some of these model runs are nibbling around the edges of being quite good.  Hopefully something can crystalize over the next couple of days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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42 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just saw this.  Amazing, and though there have been problems with the floods, overall its great to see this.

 

Pretty awesome. In California they still talk about Miracle March although I was only in elementary school and about to have another sibling so I don't remember but it is legendary in CA.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Down to 36 now.  Wasn't expecting enough clearing to pull that off tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Pretty awesome. In California they still talk about Miracle March although I was only in elementary school and about to have another sibling so I don't remember but it is legendary in CA.

What year was the miracle March?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GOA blocking is certainly more robust on this GEFS run.  Might be significant going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Actually, January 1950 was a particularly cold and snowy one for the Pacific Northwest, record breaking in fact. It’s often discussed here and frequently viewed as the “gold standard” when it comes to wintry months in the lowlands. In fact, the Portland International Airport recorded their all-time record low minima (-3f) during that protracted stretch of anomalous cold, albeit during very February. 

It was a drop dead fantastic month.   Not sure why people think I wouldn't have been happy with it.

I don't care if it was cloudy with all of the cold continental air that was in play that month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Christensen87 said:

I don’t see anything happening 😭

Patience.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Kind of interesting to note the GEFS now has 850s bottoming out at -6 for the weekend trough.  That thing has trended considerably colder over the past couple of days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm having a hard time complaining about this.  Good chance this place will be in much higher spirits by the end of the week.

1675166400-yoBQb9kPBNQ.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was a drop dead fantastic month.   Not sure why people think I wouldn't have been happy with it.

I don't care if it was cloudy with all of the cold continental air that was in play that month.

From a perspective solely on this area, I think I might prefer January 1930 to January 1950. Two big snowstorms without warming up and very cold temps, and it looks like depths might have actually peaked higher at Hillsboro while snowfall amounts were much less. 1950 was obviously much better for the region though
image.thumb.png.0c07f4e3a3b6c8c6b60467c23d7836fc.png

image.thumb.png.71b2653a83508998030b1c4ec7206b4f.png

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

From a perspective solely on this area, I think I might prefer January 1930 to January 1950. Two big snowstorms without warming up and very cold temps, and it looks like depths might have actually peaked higher at Hillsboro while snowfall amounts were much less. 1950 was obviously much better for the region though
image.thumb.png.0c07f4e3a3b6c8c6b60467c23d7836fc.png

image.thumb.png.71b2653a83508998030b1c4ec7206b4f.png

I would choose 1950 for Seattle and 1930 for Portland.  No two ways about that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm kind of surprised how glum this place is right now.  We just broke out of a horrifically awful pattern and there have been numerous indications of something really good coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would choose 1950 for Seattle and 1930 for Portland.  No two ways about that.

Hard for me to pick. 1950 had drifts of 4-5 ft of snow in this area in early February with unofficial temps down to -10 in the area according to a newspaper article.

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS tonight is much improved looks like the progression shown on the GEFS EXT and Weeklies. That can't be a bad thing. Might see some real good runs in a few days.

I think we are very close to seeing some awesome runs now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Doinko said:

Hard for me to pick. 1950 had drifts of 4-5 ft of snow in this area in early February with unofficial temps down to -10 in the area according to a newspaper article.

1930 had incredibly persistent cold and good snow cover down your way though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

What year was the miracle March?

I was thinking it was 95, but actually it was 1991. There have been other mini march miracles but that was the one that saved Tahoe and a bunch of other places. https://snowbrains.com/miracle-march-1991-march-saved-tahoe/

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS tonight is much improved looks like the progression shown on the GEFS EXT and Weeklies. That can't be a bad thing. Might see some real good runs in a few days.

 

362032B2-8719-4294-B8B0-8D4F7F9CAB71.jpeg

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