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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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Last night's CFS was darn chilly, but it does delay the cold until a few days into February. It still might be coming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dribbles and 41. 

How's the fuzz looking big dogg?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking at the GFS ensembles there really is not much to get excited about through the end of the month. The coldest point on the ensemble mean is actually Thursday morning. Only a few members get below -6C at SLE by the end of the month. EURO ensembles have quite a few more chilly members, a few down below -10C. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A quick look around the immediate region is pretty uniform this morning.

 

Looking calm and gray over Westport, Washington.  Currently 45F degrees there. 

1719762696_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_13_39AM.thumb.png.553861242970f82837aedcd425f934fd.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC is also cloudy this morning at a temp of 44F.  They expect a high of 47F today.

982565750_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_16_00AM.thumb.png.ac418bb8ce35aa2bb7d04949aabb1b13.png

The sun is partially rising over Anchorage, Alaska this morning.  The temperature is 22F with a high of 31F expected. Today will be mostly sunny for them and the rest of the week cloudy.  No snow in their forecast.

dtnnwmega.thumb.jpg.d26342bfa6b08e29fb169d4cafbd43fb.jpg

 

Corvallis, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

live.thumb.jpg.873f71d0a5a34c6b11bc9ef612059444.jpg

 

Spokane, Washington is also cloudy this morning, but not wet like much of the region.  Currently 36F degrees with a high of 41F expected.

1363092971_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_23_28AM.thumb.png.2b8618d572dcd7d5e5db911896101ff7.png

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27 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

A quick look around the immediate region is pretty uniform this morning.

 

Looking calm and gray over Westport, Washington.  Currently 45F degrees there. 

1719762696_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_13_39AM.thumb.png.553861242970f82837aedcd425f934fd.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC is also cloudy this morning at a temp of 44F.  They expect a high of 47F today.

982565750_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_16_00AM.thumb.png.ac418bb8ce35aa2bb7d04949aabb1b13.png

The sun is partially rising over Anchorage, Alaska this morning.  The temperature is 22F with a high of 31F expected. Today will be mostly sunny for them and the rest of the week cloudy.  No snow in their forecast.

dtnnwmega.thumb.jpg.d26342bfa6b08e29fb169d4cafbd43fb.jpg

 

Eugene, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

live.thumb.jpg.873f71d0a5a34c6b11bc9ef612059444.jpg

 

Spokane, Washington is also cloudy this morning, but not wet like much of the region.  Currently 36F degrees with a high of 41F expected.

1363092971_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_23_28AM.thumb.png.2b8618d572dcd7d5e5db911896101ff7.png

Mmmmm… Jersey Mike’s. I think that’s Corvallis though. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS at 300 hours... comparing to previous runs the GOA ridge signal has been trending weaker and the flow is more zonal as a result.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-5036800.png

It’s over. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The models are all quite dry for CA now going forward... the faucet has been abruptly turned off again.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-5209600 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-5339200.png

Yep that's out mid winter dry spell which is unusually late this year. The shortest ever was 8 days and the longest was 57 days. 2-3 weeks is pretty normal and much needed now. 

https://ggweather.com/enso/winter_dry_spells.htm

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9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep that's out mid winter dry spell which is unusually late this year. The shortest ever was 8 days and the longest was 57 days. 2-3 weeks is pretty normal and much needed now. 

https://ggweather.com/enso/winter_dry_spells.htm

Praying 🙏 for no rain 🧎 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Yeah, we’ve completely lost the end of the month now. I do think first week of February gets chilly though we are trending towards a low amplitude ridge and deep west coast troughing with is interesting but not super cold. Seeing some support in extended runs for what the CFS is showing for February. Kind of an odd dynamic. 

6FC42351-0D35-468D-AE6B-2BAB35082991.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, we’ve completely lost the end of the month now. I do think first week of February gets chilly though we are trending towards a low amplitude ridge and deep west coast troughing with is interesting but not super cold. Seeing some support in extended runs for what the CFS is showing for February. Kind of an odd dynamic. 

6FC42351-0D35-468D-AE6B-2BAB35082991.png

Clown range doing clown range things. It may well come back.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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20 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

12z EPS not bad at all.

363DCC95-0D61-4241-8D47-99721C928627.png

Step back though... trough is farther east than 00Z run at that time.   

I am sure something is coming in February but not sure how fast it will come.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

A quick look around the immediate region is pretty uniform this morning.

 

Looking calm and gray over Westport, Washington.  Currently 45F degrees there. 

1719762696_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_13_39AM.thumb.png.553861242970f82837aedcd425f934fd.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC is also cloudy this morning at a temp of 44F.  They expect a high of 47F today.

982565750_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_16_00AM.thumb.png.ac418bb8ce35aa2bb7d04949aabb1b13.png

The sun is partially rising over Anchorage, Alaska this morning.  The temperature is 22F with a high of 31F expected. Today will be mostly sunny for them and the rest of the week cloudy.  No snow in their forecast.

dtnnwmega.thumb.jpg.d26342bfa6b08e29fb169d4cafbd43fb.jpg

 

Eugene, Oregon is under cloudy skies and at 47F today.

live.thumb.jpg.873f71d0a5a34c6b11bc9ef612059444.jpg

 

Spokane, Washington is also cloudy this morning, but not wet like much of the region.  Currently 36F degrees with a high of 41F expected.

1363092971_ScreenShot2023-01-17at10_23_28AM.thumb.png.2b8618d572dcd7d5e5db911896101ff7.png

The sun has shined through a bit periodically this morning. Overcast now though.

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