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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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I’m going to level with y’all. I’m losing hope. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It is very clearly and obviously coming. Ensemble support and climo indicators are so strongly consistent and bullish that I'd bet real money.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It is very clearly and obviously coming. Ensemble support and climo indicators are so strongly consistent and bullish that I'd bet real money.

EPS looks great. Maybe we just need a few 384 hr GFS arctic blasts to improve the mood?

 

ecmwf-portland-us-456n-1(1).png

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Just now, Doinko said:

EPS looks great. Maybe we just need a few 384 hr GFS arctic blasts to improve the mood?

 

ecmwf-portland-us-456n-1(1).png

The only reason people aren't freaking out yet is because of a lack of pretty colors on the operational runs.

Funnily enough, if ensemble support remained unchanged while operational runs started showing Arctic fun again, the whole big picture wouldn't be all that different, but we'd have forty new pages on this thread within an hour.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

EPS looks great. Maybe we just need a few 384 hr GFS arctic blasts to improve the mood?

 

ecmwf-portland-us-456n-1(1).png

I ride or die with 384 GFS operational maps. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00z GFS in 3 hours 18 minutes!

Time for another meh run only to see the 00z GEFS in total disagreement Day 5+ yet still not be that great only to be overshadowed by the slightly improved 00z ECMWF, and finally the icing on the cake a good, but not stellar 00z EPS run with the block decently amplified, but a touch too far west.

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I have actually been enjoying this rainy period.   The dry period is just the next thing coming up.  

As have I. Some here really would be happier in a colder climate, given how they always seem to want more cold and snow. Plus, torching is as worthy of discussion in a weather forum as is cold.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ah yes, the April to remember. The best part is when the 32.3" verified for PDX. That was WILD! It was a snowy Easter egg hunt!

18z GFS (April 14th) in 2,061 hours 11 minutes

It did end up being the latest and most significant snowstorm on record for the Portland area. Of course that was back when the GFS put out the insane long range snowfall maps everybody knew wouldn’t verify/kept this place running. RIP 🪦 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It did end up being the latest and most significant snowstorm on record for the Portland area. Of course that was back when the GFS put out the insane long range snowfall maps everybody knew wouldn’t verify/kept this place running. RIP 🪦 

It was weird, out of place, and felt like we were in another world, but to me it was not as neat or special as snowfall occurring December to February.

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1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wish western wa had real towns at 1600 feet. 

I think places near Mt. Rainier like Longmire, Greenwater, and Packwood are the closest you can get to that, and they’re all so small it’s debatable whether they are worthy of being called “towns.” That said, Andrew doesn’t live in a town.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think places near Mt. Rainier like Longmire, Greenwater, and Packwood are the closest you can get to that, and they’re all so small it’s debatable whether they are worthy of being called “towns.” That said, Andrew doesn’t live in a town.

Yea I don’t really consider those to be livable places unfortunately. Pretty much zero amenities. 

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6 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

I always have dreams that Mt. Jefferson imploded and there was a 20 mile gap that was 1000' ASL, and then let's say one of the 3 sisters did the same thing.  I could only imagine the convergence zone here at almost 3000' ASL.  That is in fact a very wet dream.

Albany, Corvallis, and Eugene having Gorges would be pretty nice.

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24 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

I always have dreams that Mt. Jefferson imploded and there was a 20 mile gap that was 1000' ASL, and then let's say one of the 3 sisters did the same thing.  I could only imagine the convergence zone here at almost 3000' ASL.  That is in fact a very wet dream.

I once had a dream that the Canadian/MT/ID Rockies collapsed and Spokane became Cut Bank, MT

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16 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea I don’t really consider those to be livable places unfortunately. Pretty much zero amenities. 

Depends on what you consider livable. I believe that Carbonado is the highest elevated incorporated community in western WA, at around 1190'. But then you still gotta go about 4-5 miles to get to a grocery store or gas station.

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Really nice improvement on the 12z EPS today.  Maybe tonight will finally be the night for great runs.  With the big MJO wave actually launching now it might give the models a better idea where this is going.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

I would imagine the Puget Sounders here would love if the Fraser Canyon quadrupled in width overnight.  Or for those in the Central Willamette Valley, what if you had a gorge the size of the Columbia instead of Detroit/Santiam.

I think a huge wall just off the coast that could be raised and lowered depending on what we need could be a lot of fun.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think a huge wall just off the coast that could be raised and lowered depending on what we need could be a lot of fun.

Just build a domed city where you control all the weather... that is easier than building a 500 mile long retractable wall that is 2,000 feet high and still would not be able to protect you from warm air masses.  😄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Chilly! Already down to 36.

.85” on the day. 

Nice to have the chill back.  Only hit 45 here today.  The ECMWF actually has some decent mins over the next 10 days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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GEFS extended and the last few CFS runs look pretty good.  I think there will be some decent runs the next couple of days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not as much snow as you were expecting up there today dogg? 😕

First pic from the neighbor. 2nd pic from Mary s Peak. Wasn’t expecting anything really.

6C21C655-981E-4A2E-9091-099F5048A53D.png

0C6FFDB7-A1D9-472B-8AB7-0A763E814069.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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