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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Good post from him and he makes a strong argument with the data and fancy charts, as well as the reasons for the droughts, low water issues with Lake Mead/Powell, and to look for real, viable solutions.

00z GFS in 4 hours 42 minutes

The recent meteorological drought is now over.  But California needs better long-term planning and infrastructure to sustainabley support the current and future pooulation and a huge agriculural industry.”

Sounds sh*tty.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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23 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Unless you like to gamble.

Coos Bay/North Bend has gambling options. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Model comparison 18z GFS vs 18z GEFS Day 4 to 7.5. You can see the solutions diverge quickly after Day 6.5 which is to be expected. Bottom line: There is no point taking anything the Op run shows after Day 6 seriously. Ever. NEVER. Unless it shows a lot of Cold and SNOW!!!!, nope not even then. Not even 384hr snow maps showing 4 feet! NO. Just resist!

floop-gfs-2023011918.500h_anom.na(1).gif

floop-gefsens-2023011918.500h_anom-mean_na.gif

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Coos Bay/North Bend has gambling options. 

So does Bovada. Anybody wants some sports betting advice, I'm happy to help.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

EPS unfortunately did trend stronger with the +NAM/+NAO along with more +TNH. Hopefully just a blip.

D1ED9A53-DDFF-4D21-B89C-DDC12006FB50.png

Unless the models are just confused because of the SSW, it looks like any intrusion of arctic air into the PNW would be brief based on long range models. What are your thoughts?

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13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Of course, better then the Maine coast is the Newfoundland coast.

DildoNewfoundland.thumb.jpg.a34fa7f21f371f6519dd9ac6eeefc35c.jpg

Apparently James Cook gave that place its name because he thought it was funny as bards would use the word as a euphemism for what the object was otherwise called at the time in the 1500s, then by the 1700s people just always used that word for it.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Apparently James Cook gave that place its name because he thought it was funny as bards would use the word as a euphemism for what the object was otherwise called at the time in the 1500s, then by the 1700s people just always used that word for it.

There's a bunch of rumors out there about the origin of the name, all unconfirmed.

Tis an amusing name nonetheless, and in recent years the town has started really capitalizing on it and the curious tourists it attracts.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Ding ding ding!!!  

spent time up there, when living in NH. (2000-2003)  at the rip age of 26 in the summer of 2001, I hiked from the summit of Mt Washington in NH to the end of the trail on Katahdin.  15-16 days I believe. took our time

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6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Anything thing can happen when an ensemble has a pattern like this 10 days out. 1675101600-fCL3R4biYAQ.png

Perhaps we will get a Slushy Inch!! 

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  • Storm 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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43/33 near me today. I had a decent amount of frost this morning, but no freeze. This location did pull off a freeze (32) on the second, so not totally skunked this month. 

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

This.

March will probably be the best “winter” month here.

March 2022 did give me a good snowstorm mid month but its a roller coaster of a month though. I guess most of the year is a roller coaster in this crazy area, but not sure locals would agree on March being part of winter. Maybe in NY state it is. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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