Slushy Inch Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: 2006 is the first snowstorm I remember in Washington, I was six. A cherry tree collapsed from the weight of snow in my backyard. Or maybe that was a different year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Phil said: This. March will probably be the best “winter” month here. I like Larry Cosgrove but He really got kicked by mother nature this winter.Hopefuly We go Weak to moderate El nino this summer an El nino with East Qbo would be the best winter potential since 2009-2010 2002-2003. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: Or maybe that was a different year. November 2006? I think February 2006 was a dry arctic blast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: November 2006? I think February 2006 was a dry arctic blast Must have been NOV. I remember snowball fights on Thanksgiving. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, Doinko said: Just looking through some of these, 2008, 1985, 2002 and 1954 look like huge snow dumps for @SilverFallsAndrew Not many good dates on that list for up here anyway…At least in my lifetime. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Not many good dates on that list for up here anyway…At least in my lifetime. 1954 looks like it would've buried you if we go that far back! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: 1954 looks like it would've buried you if we go that far back! I will take that one then!! 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 .... and just like that, Randy is back in the game! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Maine Coast. A bit of a move, but you would not have to give up snow. Maine coast is amazing, both in winter and summer. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, MossMan said: I will take that one then!! Wow, looks like Roseburg had 7.5" of snow going into the cold in 1962 and then dropped to -1 degrees. Eugene dropped to -4 in January 1957. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said: March 2022 did give me a good snowstorm mid month but its a roller coaster of a month though. I guess most of the year is a roller coaster in this crazy area, but not sure locals would agree on March being part of winter. Maybe in NY state it is. We average more snowfall in March than December. If March isn’t a winter month, then December isn’t a winter month either. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 hours ago, AbbyJr said: Unless the models are just confused because of the SSW, it looks like any intrusion of arctic air into the PNW would be brief based on long range models. What are your thoughts? Too early to tell. This isn’t like 2018/19 or 2017/18 which saw a strong W2 component with a quick destruction of the PV. And the warm/shallow tropical tropopause will have to be overcome before the MJO responds. So it’s probably going to be a slower transition into the “good” pattern this time, but should get there sometime in early February. 7 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said: I like Larry Cosgrove but He really got kicked by mother nature this winter.Hopefuly We go Weak to moderate El nino this summer an El nino with East Qbo would be the best winter potential since 2009-2010 2002-2003. Yeah, though I’m not certain El Niño will develop this year. Could be a multiyear transition out of this La Niña and into El Niño. Analogous to the transitions from 2000/01-2002/03 and 1955/56-1957/58. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Sweet, sweet destruction. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Whoops! A bit late with the 00z GFS sorry was watching the Blazers game for some reason. I hope this model run is more exciting! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 19 minutes ago, Phil said: Sweet, sweet destruction. Any chance that massive dome of cold air in Siberia dumps straight into the western US? February 1989 please! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, Phil said: Too early to tell. This isn’t like 2018/19 or 2017/18 which saw a strong W2 component with a quick destruction of the PV. And the warm/shallow tropical tropopause will have to be overcome before the MJO responds. So it’s probably going to be a slower transition into the “good” pattern this time, but should get there sometime in early February. Thanks Phil. It's nice that we have the base state in our favour. -ENSO/+QBO combos usually favour the PNW for cold. The SSW is just extra help. Hopefully it all works out and we can get another cold/snowy pattern here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 28 minutes ago, Phil said: Yeah, though I’m not certain El Niño will develop this year. Could be a multiyear transition out of this La Niña and into El Niño. Analogous to the transitions from 2000/01-2002/03 and 1955/56-1957/58. Very possable it has to be frustrating to be a promet trying to sort this all out with models constantly showing El nino only to be delayed I think that's what burned Cosgrove he went with Data ending la nina to soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 4 c'mon inversion, fake cold, and east wind! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Only 91 pages? Prediction: We'll add at least 91 more pages before the end of the month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 5 And tropical tidbits and weather bell don't have 0z yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Only 91 pages? Prediction: We'll add at least 91 more pages before the end of the month. Or 9 more if ensembles are crap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 GEM nice ridge 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Hammer drops by next weekend on the GEM. 4 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hammer drops by next weekend on the GEM. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 33.3 here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 00z GEM Day 9'er! holy pancakes 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEM Day 9e'r holy pancakes Imagine if Euro matches this? 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: We average more snowfall in March than December. If March isn’t a winter month, then December isn’t a winter month either. I know the last couple of Decembers haven't shown much snow.. but that arctic blast we got right before Christmas was pretty cold. Can afternoon temperatures in the single digits happen that late? 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Just now, Slushy Inch said: Imagine if Euro matches this? 91 more pages just the next 24 hours! LOL C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 7 minutes 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 20, 2023 Report Share Posted January 20, 2023 Back to the boring and lost GFS. Day 9'er 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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