PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[RentonHill]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

that thing is putting its thing into E WA

just noticed its 00z. Not sure why 12z is so late. weather models everywhere are maybe having a hard time getting a handle on this extreme event thats coming

[Phishy Wx]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is a disaster. 

whats new?

[fubario]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Does that have true coat?

oh yah....yer gonna need that true coat there....yah.

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Backyard view this morning...

Snow levels on the ridge getting lower is definitely a sign February is coming. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is very cold at the end.  

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM is very cold at the end.  

where you see? Its only partly out on pivotal and tidbits and wxbell

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

where you see? Its only partly out on pivotal and tidbits and wxbell

Brrrrr!!

 

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Brrrrr!!

 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Congrats on the new job! I've been interviewing for several new work opportunities. Might be headed to SE Alaska this spring for the summer!

Salmon /crab fishing? I know several different people in WA that do it every year as a tradition. They go to Alaska and work at a cannery or a seafood boat and make more money in two months than they do the rest of the year.

[NWbyNW]

Up to 37F after a low of 34F.  Nothing but sunshine and blue sky out there this morning, but sort of that low-angle sunshine.  It's not particularly bright and blue.  More of a shade of blue.  

Forecast is looking pretty uninteresting and not much rain.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows temps falling into the mid 30s early tomorrow afternoon with the initial band of precip from the next system... then the SW comes roaring into the Seattle area by mid afternoon and the temp jumps back into the low 40s.    Going to be an active day.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Brrrrr!!

 

That is a classic snowstorm pattern for Portland north to the border the way and speed the low comes down the coast.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows the SW wind gusting to 50 mph in Seattle by late afternoon.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows temps falling into the mid 30s early tomorrow afternoon with the initial band of precip from the next system... then the SW comes roaring into the Seattle area by mid afternoon and the temp jumps back into the low 40s.    Going to be an active day.

Wow i wasn't paying attention but the rgem shows a period of snow here tomorrow morning.

[TT-SEA]

NWS should put out a statement regarding lowland snow potential followed immediately by windstorm potential for the Seattle area for tomorrow.    It's going to be a pretty crazy day.

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow i wasn't paying attention but the rgem shows a period of snow here tomorrow morning.

Might have to head out to green mountain tomorrow. Been awhile since I’ve been out there. 

[fubario]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows the SW wind gusting to 50 mph in Seattle by late afternoon.

 

No mention of wind from the NWS for Sunday. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows the SW wind gusting to 50 mph in Seattle by late afternoon.

 

Holy that is no joke! Hurricane force winds right off the coast.

[joelgombiner]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

So I was talking to my boss about where he gets his weather info and I told him about my meteorological hobby. Our job is very influenced by the weather being a storm water filtration company. He wants me to give him weather forecasts for our sites as part of my job 2 times a week. I’m thinking I want to get a subscription to pivotal or weatherbell…which one would you guys recommend? 

I feel like this forum could collectively run a business that provides customized weather forecasts like this. The amount of model-watching and local weather knowledge on here is staggering. 

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows the SW wind gusting to 50 mph in Seattle by late afternoon.

 

I'm skeptical. Last time it showed big gusts, they didn't verify, and last time we had big gusts, it didn't predict them. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Might have to head out to green mountain tomorrow. Been awhile since I’ve been out there. 

Let me know

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, fubario said:

No mention of wind from the NWS for Sunday. 

This is happening tomorrow... not Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

Front window view...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

NWS should put out a statement regarding lowland snow potential followed immediately by windstorm potential for the Seattle area for tomorrow.    It's going to be a pretty crazy day.

A few of the meso models are showing about a 3 hr window for some snow here, Between 9am and noon or so looks like the window. A brief period of offshore flow with some cool air in place just might work out for a little snow. This one was sneaky and i didn't even see it coming.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It will probable happen too.

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Let me know

I’ll probably try and head out there at like 8-9am…although I’m not exactly sure when the best timing on the precipitation would be. I’ll definitely let you know I can send you a PM in the morning. 

[fubario]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is happening tomorrow... not Sunday.

Misread, sorry.

NWS doesn't seem too concerned. This is for Westport:

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It will probable happen too.

I’m in the green!!! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

Misread, sorry.

NWS doesn't seem too concerned. This is for Westport:

They should pay attention to the ECMWF.   

[RentonHill]

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

They should pay attention to the ECMWF.   

Only noobs disregard the ECMWF 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Christensen87 said:

06z CFS is great! Come on GFS, get it together. Heading to Port Townsend today for the weekend. Should be a beautiful drive! 

Riding the CFS.

 

The mechanical bull is gentler, though.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A few of the meso models are showing about a 3 hr window for some snow here, Between 9am and noon or so looks like the window. A brief period of offshore flow with some cool air in place just might work out for a little snow. This one was sneaky and i didn't even see it coming.

Everyone’s just been hyper focused on the end of the month. Gfs and gem have been showing this cool system and low snow levels for tomorrow for about a week. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Was just going to mention that the ECMWF is much sharper with that trough late next week.   

[RentonHill]

Day 8

[Front Ranger]

Euro looking promising...

[RentonHill]

Day 9

[RentonHill]

Day 10

[TacomaWx]

The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.

Not hard to imagine the pattern shown on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 crashing hard immediately afterwards.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.

Anything before February is gravy.