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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You made a good choice! 

 

38 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Dumping snow at 1400’ on green mountain. Probably 1/2” in the short time I’ve been here. 

A233F4AA-F16F-40EE-A1C5-360B009259EE.jpeg

I was just up at the parking area. They are packed! 5 years ago no people used that area for the most part. Not like now anyway. I recognize that area. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m all in for a cold January/January 2006 redux. Tough to lose!

What would you do without me Jess?

Anyway nice to get a little something even if it’s not gonna last what do you think too bad the Hawks lost last weekend but it was still a good season hopefully the next round of blocking turns out good too nice that it might set up a little earlier than in 2006 since sun angles are on the rise have a good Saturday 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It is dumping snow and sticking for... reasons 

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  • Snow 3

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Currently 38.4 with light rain. Probably won’t see snow with this IMBY unless the precip rates really pick up.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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FWIW... EPS and control run also shifting west.  The control run goes to a massive GOA trough after day 10.

Here is run-to-run change on the EPS in the long range...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5425600.png

  • Sick 2
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Also Euro Control goes crazy 

DE0C26A0-EB38-46A8-9318-2BD60E4497E1.png

83CD2A80-D23A-42E0-84B6-B26A7B299DA4.png

Might be some serious terrain bleed there... because the 500mb pattern on the control run could not be more different than its 00Z run.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5404000.png

  • Snow 1
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ended up with some snow here.  Kind of alternating between rain and snow.  Still only 33 though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If memory serves the ECMWF has a long known bias of kicking too much energy SW underneath a block like the one coming up.  Not too worried about this run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Light rain and 40 here.

This is a pretty rare case where inversionary cold air leftover here made a difference with precip type.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... EPS and control run also shifting west.  The control run goes to a massive GOA trough after day 10.

Here is run-to-run change on the EPS in the long range...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5425600.png

I would have been shocked if everything stayed perfect right up to when the possible good pattern sets up.  That NEVER happens.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty good chance the ECMWF is too aggressive with the warming in King County later today.  It's been known to do that in cases like this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would have been shocked if everything stayed perfect right up to when the possible good pattern sets up.  That NEVER happens.

True... no way to know yet.   Maybe the westward shift is real and we are just starting to see it in the models now or maybe everything will shift east again.    The latter would be a compromise with the GFS.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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