PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

As mentioned....00z GEM definitely gets the job done. Day 7

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, MillCreekMike said:

Forecast said 1-3 inches here  

Not gonna lie, jelly. Was up in cle elum last weekend and all rain and melt. Enjoy!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 35F and partly cloudy.

[MikeInEverett]

This is the first snowstorm I’ve experienced not at home. This definitely doesn’t feel the same as being able to experience this with friends and the forum and seeing posts all over social media as well as videos of cars sliding everywhere, but this is still pretty darn magical! Some pictures of downtown Roslyn. 5.5” and counting.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Day 9'er giving it another shot long range.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM frigid

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gfs looks like crap

[SnowWillarrive]

20 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

This is the first snowstorm I’ve experienced not at home. This definitely doesn’t feel the same as being able to experience this with friends and the forum and seeing posts all over social media as well as videos of cars sliding everywhere, but this is still pretty darn magical! Some pictures of downtown Roslyn. 5.5” and counting.

I wish Roslyn was a bigger town. Makes me want to move there .

[Deweydog]

Sad to see the GFS have to be sent right back out to the woodshed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Sad to see the GFS have to be sent right back out to the woodshed.

GEM 4 Lyfe 

[ShawniganLake]

The small accumulation of slush from this afternoon is frozen. 32F. 

[MossMan]

Moderate rain with possible positive splats. Down to 37.4 

[TacomaWx]

I’m just glad the weathers finally getting more interesting and we have stuff to track on the models. Has been pretty stale for awhile nice that things are getting more active again. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

What a horrible GFS run. 

[TacomaWx]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cleared out and below freezing again. 

[LowerGarfield]

I'm at 37F right now...earlier we had maybe two minutes of snow or mixed white precipitation falling but I didn't go outside and it didn't accumulate if at all. This winter hasn't been as exciting as last or the year prior to that, but I'm content as we did get a few days with enough snow to play in it. Wouldn't mind more of course. Last winter I know I had at least 19 or 20 inches of snow based on the forum but my Dec count is missing for that year (and we were gone for a day or two of snow) so probably had more.

I wish I started measuring in 2020 though. We had some reallly really deep snow when everyone else had it (I think it was Feb but can't remember) and enough snow to write a political message the Sunday after the election so likely at least 2 inches. It takes a minimum of 1.50+ to mostly make the grass invisible and 2 for total coverage I'd post the picture here (for snow depth guesses but I don't want to start a politics post).

[Phishy Wx]

went to birthday dinner, came out to about 1.5-2" on the car.  not bad.  radar is down in Spokane for the week so hard to tell what's actually happening

[snow_wizard]

GEFS certainly looks cold and dry.  A compromise between the ECMWF models and GFS models would be pretty darn good.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What a horrible GFS run. 

A lot of northerly flow.

Pretty hard to call that anywhere near horrible.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail down details on an event like this more than a few days in advance.  It's always frustrating only having a vague idea of how it will actually go down.  On the other hand the surprises can be fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail down details on an event like this more than a few days in advance.  It's always frustrating only having a vague idea of how it will actually go down.  On the other hand the surprises can be fun.

The only time I can recall 7-8 days out was December 2008. Unbelievable model agreement.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF was fairly cold if it actually verified.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the models have settled on the general pattern, but one wouldn’t expect  details to start fleshing out until the 5-7 day range. I’ve kind of assumed the first surge of cold was going to mainly go east of the Rockies and we had a better chance with the 2nd surge, around the 2nd, but I have seen enough that a big cold shot late next weekend wouldn’t shock me. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Deweydog]

Feels like volatility is gonna be the name of the game next week. Prolly not as dramatic as December though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Feels like volatility is gonna be the name of the game next week. Prolly not as dramatic as December though.

Wonder if we see any -20C Euro runs. 

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if we see any -20C Euro runs. 

2025-26

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not good

[SpaceRace22]

Don't worry guys, I'm coming up to visit family in Portland from 1/30 through 2/10. Last time I was in Portland was April 11, 2022 and we all know what happened then. So we'll be good, the weather gods like me.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not good

Bar

[WeatherGeek2022]

no opinion shall matter other than that of king EURO.

[Deweydog]

It’s not just for hour 384 anymore!

[SpaceRace22]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail down details on an event like this more than a few days in advance.  It's always frustrating only having a vague idea of how it will actually go down.  On the other hand the surprises can be fun.

Honestly, with the recent advancements in AI technology that continue to come at an exponential rate, I think it's quite likely that within the next 5-10 years we will see some shocking improvements to weather modeling.

There may be an upper limit where it's basically impossible to forecast accurately beyond, thanks to the butterfly effect. But I suspect that we are not that far off from seeing model runs with exceptional accuracy within 384 hours.

Part of me wonders if knowing all the exact details with near certainty 2-3 weeks out will take some of the fun out of it though, lol. Half the fun for me is the anticipation and model riding.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. Euro amplifying the ridge much sooner and further west with the Kona low.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge merger HR 102 just a touch past Day 4 a bit sooner than other models. Evolving ridge looks very healthy. Kona Low in excellent location.