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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I thought he was saying the opposite. 

Me too.  He was implying that's utter perfection.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF?

Since when have ever been fine with that.  I'm just saying I would take all three operational models over the EPS any day.

Yesterday when the 12z euro showed

cold onshore flow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Woof. Long ways out but still

92D4C2D5-95C0-41F9-8B75-D429BA2CF9C7.png

03D4C827-8190-4054-9D44-56770B98DAD9.png

It worries me seeing this and the latest crappy GFS PNA forecast…

 

Yes I am in full weenie mode today…I’m stalling fixing the vacuum. Guess I should go do that now. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

This is the sum of all fears

Not how I meant it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yesterday when the 12z euro showed

cold onshore flow. 

Just saying cold onshore flow is shiit here.  I would rather have cold and dry than that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weird seeing the EPS ensemble line up so poorly with the control.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I thought he was saying the opposite. 

That is what I thought as well... but then said Feb 2014 actually verified which implies he is doubting this one.    Maybe I read that wrong though.  

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, RentonHill said:

Day 14. 

C62BD056-3A3A-4267-BE37-4E2409685748.png

C26CD9BE-6B44-4601-ADF4-7C652EE9FC45.png

Looks like that trough may swing back in. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge changes for the worse on the EPS... that is somewhat concerning regardless of what the operational runs are showing.

My only hope now is that we are repeating late January 2019 when the EPS took a dump temporarily. But things do not look good all of a sudden. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge changes for the worse on the EPS... that is somewhat concerning regardless of what the operational runs are showing.

I’ve seen a bunch of day 10-15 maps… Everything the operational runs showed was in the day 7-10 range…There was nothing interesting on the operational GFS past day ten. You’ve kicked the trolling up a notch today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Every bit of common sense would have said the EPS would be great on this run with GFS, GEM, and ECMWF operationals all good.  Of course it just had to go and be lousy.  Typical.  For now I think 3 operational models being in excellent agreement carries more weight.  We shall see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Good lord…

  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

My only hope now is that we are repeating late January 2019 when the EPS took a dump temporarily. But things do not look good all of a sudden. 

Exactly my thoughts lol.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My only hope now is that we are repeating late January 2019 when the EPS took a dump temporarily. But things do not look good all of a sudden. 

Seriously?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve seen a bunch of day 10-15 maps… Everything the operational runs showed was in the day 7-10 range…There was nothing interesting on the operational GFS past day ten. You’ve kicked the trolling up a notch today. 

I am not trolling.  The EPS does not show much in the 7-10 day period either.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder if PDX will be able to pull off sub-50 highs the rest of the month. I think Wednesday/Thursday will be the closest calls. Regardless 54 should remain their top end, which would be their coolest January max since 2017.

20-31st

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not trolling.  The EPS does not show much in the 7-10 day period either.   

That is the bottom line that I was referring to as well.  The stuff beyond day 10 is a complete unknown at this point anyway IMO.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Tim is on fire today!

I live and die by the EPS!

But I will just go back to saying it definitely coming.   Because it probably is.  

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is the bottom line that I was referring to as well.  The stuff beyond day 10 is a complete unknown at this point anyway IMO.

Unless the stuff we likey is beyond 10 days, of course.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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CFS is on board too.  I'm not joking about that either.  I've seen the CFS do pretty well when these things get into the believable range.  It's a "coarser" model and sees things a bit differently than the regular operational models.  When it agrees with the operational models it's a good sign.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I live and die by the EPS!

But I will just go back to saying it definitely coming.   Because it probably is.  

Say whatever you want, it just seems like you make a conscious effort to counter balance Jim, but maybe its sub-conscious. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Say whatever you want, it just seems like you make a conscious effort to counter balance Jim, but maybe its sub-conscious. 

Maybe in general... but Jim has been very reasonable with this upcoming situation.   At least in my opinion.   Taking a wait and see approach without spiking the ball.    Probably the best sign of all that something big is coming!  

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Snowing in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills on CBS.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Maybe in general... but Jim has been very reasonable with this upcoming situation.   At least in my opinion.   Taking a wait and see approach without spiking the ball.   

True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. 

  • Like 5

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. 

1916 tells us early February can be epic.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snowing in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills on CBS.

Chiefs are going to have a tough time next week with the Bengals. 

  • Popcorn 2
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snowing in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills on CBS.

That place has had enough snow.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

1916 tells us early February can be epic.

Absolutely. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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