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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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CFS is on board for a shot of cold air early next week. 

 

 

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

CFS clips us with the cold airmass later in the week. I have noticed a few days ago most models sent the first shot of cold air east, and the 2nd one was further west, now that trend has flipped. 

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. 

Yeah, I don't think even clown range GFS maps showed much snow at all for the Willamette Valley in December.

 

I don't know for sure, but I think  the pattern kind of looks like something that'll allow for systems undercutting the ridge for an overrunning event at the end of the Euro

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If we want a long cold/chilly period, a solution like what the GFS showed wouldn't be bad. I think the pattern probably resets the 2nd week of February, and then things cool off again after that. Just throwing stuff at the wall right now, but that's what I'm thinking. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Very dense fog overnight + single digit lows = a beautiful wintry landscape.

IMG_20230122_130306.jpg

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These have gotta be some of the best photos I've ever seen on this forum. Really beautiful. Nice job

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Anyone else loving the snow in Buffalo?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Anyone else loving the snow in Buffalo?

The Bengals sure are!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The Bengals sure are!

So far... its looking like another game that is decided early.    Would be the 3rd dud of the weekend if this holds.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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CFS monthly for February. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS just shows shot after shot of arctic air into the center of the country through February. Wouldn't take much for us to score multiple times. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Funny haha thing about February 2014 is that up until the 5th it was pretty much set on being a DRY blast from start to finish.

It was a snowy Birthday party for sure! Well, the party itself wasn't outside, but damn that would have been far better.

00z NAM in 5 hours 4 minutes (ridge merger is almost within NAM range now!)

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Beautiful arctic blast at the end of the 12z CFS. 

prateptype_cat-met.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice summary of the event
Feb 2014 Snow/Ice Wrapup | FOX 12 Weather Blog (archive.org)

Those NWS snow totals are not fully accurate though, Hillsboro definitely had more than 6" of snow.

Reading the comments it looks like I had a total of 8.5" from the event. The 23/13 day was more impressive than the snow up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I love all of you. We weather nerds are generally hard for society to tolerate and must stick together.

Absolutely. The internet can bring out the worst in us sometimes, but there is not a person in here I truly wish ill upon, other than maybe sometimes hoping it doesn't snow at their house. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking at 2014, one of its assets was the fact it was a rather disjointed pattern overall. It made for what verified as a perfected balance of a backdoor blast thanks to the elongated PV lobe but the blocking was fragmented, allowing for the undercut energy and eventual cyclogenesis around Vancouver Island. 

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18 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ya. During that time it snowed around 32” imby. Incredible storm. 

In Cannon Beach, we hosted a mens group from Corvallis or Albany and they all left really right away after breakfast at 8am or so in order to get ahead of it. Usually it was breakfast then the groups wouldn't leave until 11 or noon. That was the storm that made me hate snow for a few years since we got stuck in Seaside, stayed with a stranger and it postponed my sister's visit from Lewis and Clark college to visit. But I like snow now. In fairness, that whole week was then dead quiet and we had no work so lots of time to play in the snow and walk on a snowy beach.

It was pretty incredible how Portland shutdown with that storm.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Looking at 2014, one of its assets was the fact it was a rather disjointed pattern overall. It made for what verified as a perfected balance of a backdoor blast thanks to the elongated PV lobe but the blocking was fragmented, allowing for the undercut energy and eventual cyclogenesis around Vancouver Island. 

I saw in Mark's summary that models originally projected -13C at PDX and reality was -8C.   A weaker push usually ends up being snowier for places on the line.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not really looking like we are going to have snow going into the cold as of now. Hoping that changes!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I saw in Mark's summary that models originally projected -13C at PDX and reality was -8C.   A weaker push usually ends up being snowier for places on the line.  

Exactly.  What looks like a strong and dry push ends up being weaker, but wetter (whiter).

The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996.

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Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Exactly.  What looks like a strong and dry push ends up being weaker, but wetter (whiter).

The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996.

December 1998 might fit the bill too. But yeah it’s been awhile. I wouldn’t mind a strong, dry push of cold where we can really score some cold lows, but it seems to be one of the harder patterns to achieve these days.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Exactly.  What looks like a strong and dry push ends up being weaker, but wetter (whiter).

The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996.

Even late January 1996 was primarily low level and the onset then was pretty similar to what occurred on 2/5/14. It was 26 here that afternoon without a cloud in the sky and screaming downslope winds.

Reminds me that 1996 had the potential to go the 2014 route. I remember Jesse-friendly Mark on Saturday morning the 27th was going with a high of 22 at heavy snow for the 30th. I think he was drunk on the snow that fell that morning.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Even late January 1996 was primarily low level and the onset then was pretty similar to what occurred on 2/5/14. It was 26 here that afternoon without a cloud in the sky and screaming downslope winds.

Reminds me that 1996 had the potential to go the 2014 route. I remember Jesse-friendly Mark on Saturday morning the 27th was going with a high of 22 at heavy snow for the 30th. I think he was drunk on the snow that fell that morning.

This forecast from KPTV in 2008 is fun to look at. Didn't realize he used to be that aggressive.
image.png

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