SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 CFS is on board for a shot of cold air early next week. CFS clips us with the cold airmass later in the week. I have noticed a few days ago most models sent the first shot of cold air east, and the 2nd one was further west, now that trend has flipped. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Very dense fog overnight + single digit lows = a beautiful wintry landscape. Wow... those are some postcard pics. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Ohio is getting a good snow rn 7 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. Yeah, I don't think even clown range GFS maps showed much snow at all for the Willamette Valley in December. I don't know for sure, but I think the pattern kind of looks like something that'll allow for systems undercutting the ridge for an overrunning event at the end of the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looking like the 7-10 day period could be the best potential for the WV to see a decent snowstorm this winter. Cold intrusion looks pretty backdoor ish. Always like southern Washington and oregons chances with that. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 If we want a long cold/chilly period, a solution like what the GFS showed wouldn't be bad. I think the pattern probably resets the 2nd week of February, and then things cool off again after that. Just throwing stuff at the wall right now, but that's what I'm thinking. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 don't sweat it, it will come to you 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Very dense fog overnight + single digit lows = a beautiful wintry landscape. These have gotta be some of the best photos I've ever seen on this forum. Really beautiful. Nice job 5 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 All 12z Op runs in good agreement through Day 6-7. Ridge merger begins just shy of Day 4 now. Arctic air spills into the Columbia Basin at Day 7. Not bad. Colder runs ahead. 18z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Anyone else loving the snow in Buffalo? 2 1 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Anyone else loving the snow in Buffalo? The Bengals sure are! 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: The Bengals sure are! So far... its looking like another game that is decided early. Would be the 3rd dud of the weekend if this holds. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 CFS monthly for February. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Ya gotta believe!!!! AND yeah, I don't want to play the Bengals. Wow what a start for Cinci .... 00z ECMWF in 9 hours 18 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 J.C. just threw in the towel. It's gonna happen now! 1 1 1 Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 This definitely isn’t bad IMO. The mean trended warmer because a camp 🏕 of warmer members emerged for this ensemble run, but they are outweighed by the cold camp. Of course fluctuations like this are to be expected at this range. 7 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Funny haha thing about February 2014 is that up until the 5th it was pretty much set on being a DRY blast from start to finish. 3 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 CFS just shows shot after shot of arctic air into the center of the country through February. Wouldn't take much for us to score multiple times. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: This definitely isn’t bad IMO. The mean trended warmer because a camp 🏕 of warmer members emerged for this ensemble run, but they are outweighed by the cold camp. Of course fluctuations like this are to be expected at this range. Agreed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Funny haha thing about February 2014 is that up until the 5th it was pretty much set on being a DRY blast from start to finish. It was a snowy Birthday party for sure! Well, the party itself wasn't outside, but damn that would have been far better. 00z NAM in 5 hours 4 minutes (ridge merger is almost within NAM range now!) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Nice summary of the event Feb 2014 Snow/Ice Wrapup | FOX 12 Weather Blog (archive.org) Those NWS snow totals are not fully accurate though, Hillsboro definitely had more than 6" of snow. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Beautiful arctic blast at the end of the 12z CFS. 5 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: Nice summary of the event Feb 2014 Snow/Ice Wrapup | FOX 12 Weather Blog (archive.org) Those NWS snow totals are not fully accurate though, Hillsboro definitely had more than 6" of snow. Reading the comments it looks like I had a total of 8.5" from the event. The 23/13 day was more impressive than the snow up here. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Funny haha thing about February 2014 is that up until the 5th it was pretty much set on being a DRY blast from start to finish. Hilarious, really. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 I heard if you get too many weenies on here that God won't let you into heaven. 2 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: I heard if you get too many weenies on here that God won't let you into heaven. I better up my game then. Definitely a few people here I don’t want to have to share the air hockey table with up there. 1 3 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 I’m sure the 18z will clear all this up for us 3 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The snow band that set up on the 6th across Benton and Linn counties (Corvallis, Albany, lebanon, Sweet Home), was pretty amazing. Pretty large swath of 12-18” accumulations. Ya. During that time it snowed around 32” imby. Incredible storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 I love all of you. We weather nerds are generally hard for society to tolerate and must stick together. 4 5 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I love all of you. We weather nerds are generally hard for society to tolerate and must stick together. Absolutely. The internet can bring out the worst in us sometimes, but there is not a person in here I truly wish ill upon, other than maybe sometimes hoping it doesn't snow at their house. 6 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Looking at 2014, one of its assets was the fact it was a rather disjointed pattern overall. It made for what verified as a perfected balance of a backdoor blast thanks to the elongated PV lobe but the blocking was fragmented, allowing for the undercut energy and eventual cyclogenesis around Vancouver Island. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Ya. During that time it snowed around 32” imby. Incredible storm. In Cannon Beach, we hosted a mens group from Corvallis or Albany and they all left really right away after breakfast at 8am or so in order to get ahead of it. Usually it was breakfast then the groups wouldn't leave until 11 or noon. That was the storm that made me hate snow for a few years since we got stuck in Seaside, stayed with a stranger and it postponed my sister's visit from Lewis and Clark college to visit. But I like snow now. In fairness, that whole week was then dead quiet and we had no work so lots of time to play in the snow and walk on a snowy beach. It was pretty incredible how Portland shutdown with that storm. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Looking at 2014, one of its assets was the fact it was a rather disjointed pattern overall. It made for what verified as a perfected balance of a backdoor blast thanks to the elongated PV lobe but the blocking was fragmented, allowing for the undercut energy and eventual cyclogenesis around Vancouver Island. I saw in Mark's summary that models originally projected -13C at PDX and reality was -8C. A weaker push usually ends up being snowier for places on the line. 6 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not really looking like we are going to have snow going into the cold as of now. Hoping that changes! 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Cold Snap said: Not really looking like we are going to have snow going into the cold as of now. Hoping that changes! This was the snow forecast for November 2010. Definitely a lot of time for that to change 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I saw in Mark's summary that models originally projected -13C at PDX and reality was -8C. A weaker push usually ends up being snowier for places on the line. Exactly. What looks like a strong and dry push ends up being weaker, but wetter (whiter). The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Crowd at Buffalo doesn’t seem into it. Have to imagine it’s because everyone keeps refreshing the radar loop. 1 6 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Tyler Mode said: Exactly. What looks like a strong and dry push ends up being weaker, but wetter (whiter). The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996. December 1998 might fit the bill too. But yeah it’s been awhile. I wouldn’t mind a strong, dry push of cold where we can really score some cold lows, but it seems to be one of the harder patterns to achieve these days. 5 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: Exactly. What looks like a strong and dry push ends up being weaker, but wetter (whiter). The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996. Even late January 1996 was primarily low level and the onset then was pretty similar to what occurred on 2/5/14. It was 26 here that afternoon without a cloud in the sky and screaming downslope winds. Reminds me that 1996 had the potential to go the 2014 route. I remember Jesse-friendly Mark on Saturday morning the 27th was going with a high of 22 at heavy snow for the 30th. I think he was drunk on the snow that fell that morning. 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: Even late January 1996 was primarily low level and the onset then was pretty similar to what occurred on 2/5/14. It was 26 here that afternoon without a cloud in the sky and screaming downslope winds. Reminds me that 1996 had the potential to go the 2014 route. I remember Jesse-friendly Mark on Saturday morning the 27th was going with a high of 22 at heavy snow for the 30th. I think he was drunk on the snow that fell that morning. This forecast from KPTV in 2008 is fun to look at. Didn't realize he used to be that aggressive. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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