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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS did this in December too. And then it caved to the other models. Much weaker with blocking this time and last time compared to the other models

Lolz just posted the same. Except if I recall it wasn’t completely wrong because it never showed the full blasts like the others were. It had stupid runs and whatever it was showing didn’t really verify but the fact it was so stubborn should have been a clue

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

I just completed my PhD last summer, part of which is focused on the history of the Okanogan Lobe (The Puget Lobe's neighbor east of the Cascades) (https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/49189). From my perspective, we are still in the very early stages of understanding the Cordilleran Ice Sheet. Weather and climate during the glaciation and deglaciation is a big question mark... but it was obviously much colder and/or much snowier for glaciers to have grown to the extent they did. Part of the reason I'm on this forum is to learn more about weather and climate in this region to understand the geologic history of the ice sheets. 

I found something online a while back that talked about the weather in the Puget Sound area before the glaciation and that was just as fascinating as the glaciation itself.  It spoke of sage brush, sub alpine trees and precip amounts maybe only 30% of current normals.  They were able to guess on how much colder it was than present just south of the maximum southern extent of the glaciation, based on pollen samples, and it was something like 14 degrees lower than present.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS did this in December too. And then it caved to the other models. Much weaker with blocking this time and last time compared to the other models

Yup.  Too anemic with the block.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Lolz just posted the same. Except if I recall it wasn’t completely wrong because it never showed the full blasts like the others were. It had stupid runs and whatever it was showing didn’t really verify but the fact it was so stubborn should have been a clue

I think it kind of ended up being a compromise of the later GFS solutions and those crazy Euro runs. I think the Euro got the idea of that weaker ridge driving the cold air farther south but the GFS was farther east while the Euro dropped a huge arctic airmass over us but I'm nto sure. At least this seems like a less crazy setup so far at least

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

GFS kinda going to the December route.

LRC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This whole thing does kind of fit the LRC come to think of it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Doinko said:

I think it kind of ended up being a compromise of the later GFS solutions and those crazy Euro runs. The Euro got the idea of that weaker ridge driving the cold air farther south but the GFS was farther east while the Euro dropped a huge arctic airmass over us. At least this seems like a less crazy setup so far at least

Would just feel a lot better if ensembles were all aboard. Maybe they will be after tonight. Sure hope so!!

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

500h_anom.na (2).png

That is straight up orgasmic.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 LOL

500h_anom.na.png

Looks like it took a bad acid trip on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Can't help but laugh at the GEM dropping an arctic bomb.

It's on the table right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEFS progress already. Way better than 0z.1674885600-CsyevNJ8ssc.png1674864000-5YaG7hwWuXw.png

I think this is third straight run with improvement.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 33.1 now.  Probably going to pull off 5 consecutive freezing mins...In January!!!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I've seen GEM drop arctic nukes like that all the time, it always moderates. I'll wait until the Euro.

The GEM absolutely loves to get all cyclogenic with reloads especially, despite waning block support.

Tonight’s run is almost a spitting image of the 1989 event at a 500mb perspective, just gets there via a different path. As a result, it has far less cold air to work with.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Really impressive improvement on the GEFS when looking at the 12z, 18z, and 0z.   All noticeably better than the previous.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I've seen GEM drop arctic nukes like that all the time, it always moderates. I'll wait until the Euro.

It was right in November 2010.  Nailed that thing to the wall.

  • Like 6

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

The GEM absolutely loves to get all cyclogenic with reloads especially, despite waning block support.

Tonight’s run is almost a spitting image of the 1989 event at a 500mb perspective, just gets there via a different path. As a result, it has far less cold air to work with.

Hmmm I was thinking it looked more like 2023 🤔

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The GEM absolutely loves to get all cyclogenic with reloads especially, despite waning block support.

Tonight’s run is almost a spitting image of the 1989 event at a 500mb perspective, just gets there via a different path. As a result, it has far less cold air to work with.

On this one it keeps that block pumped up really nicely though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

qpf_acc-imp.us_nw.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Not terrible from Seattle south.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe I’m crazy, but the GFS/GEFS look like they’re in lock step through six days.

The GEFS is colder on 850s.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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