Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z GEFS Day 6 (4-run trend) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Doesn't carve a notch out of the ridge over Alaska like GFS does. Could still go bad. For whatever it’s worth, you’ll almost never see a shortwave feature like that depicted on a mean beyond about 72 hours or so. 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The GEFS is colder on 850s. It’s pretty dang close 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Some separation in the breaking good category out toward day seven. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: For whatever it’s worth, you’ll almost never see a shortwave feature like that depicted on a mean beyond about 72 hours or so. True. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z GEFS Day 6.5 850s (4-run trend) 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEFS Day 6.5 850s (4-run trend) If that continues for a few more runs it will be REALLY cold. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEFS Day 6.5 850s (4-run trend) The trends are indeed good. Also, did anyone note the improved 18z EPS? Ridge isn't squeezed north, like on GEFS and GFS. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z GEFS Day 7 850s (4-run trend) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Mean is -7 on the GEFS at 0z on the 30th compared to -5 on the 18z. Noice! 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Interesting that an arctic blast seems like a possibility coming up…figured we would be seeing something like 2018 instead of 2014. Lot of time for details to change though it’ll be fun to see what happens for better or worse. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 That entire GFS run is a total mess. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That entire GFS run is a total mess. It almost turns into gibberish that will obviously not verify. They ruined that model on the last two upgrades. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Massive Euro and CFS runs coming up. 6 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GEFS 850mb mean temp for Jan 30th. The Dalles: 00z -10.4c, 18z -6.8c, 12z -5.9c 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Little better than OP at 204 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The GFS and GEM both have snow here. 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Great to see improvements so far with the models tonight other than the lost GFS. I have a feeling the Euro and EPS will improve. 4 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GEFS Moses Lake: 00z -12.5c, 18z -9.7c, 12z -8.2c 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Massive Euro and CFS runs coming up. The CFS has been pretty darn good today, but it might get better. 4 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Interesting that an arctic blast seems like a possibility coming up…figured we would be seeing something like 2018 instead of 2014. Lot of time for details to change though it’ll be fun to see what happens for better or worse. Nice to have a shot at another good event after what we've already had. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: Nice to have a shot at another good event after what we've already had. Hopefully it ends up working out ok. Most of us on the forum myself included have been thinking something good would come later in winter…definitely possible. I think there will be a good event out of this but obviously no clue if it is more of an arctic event or snowy. Maybe both but just too early to get excited. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The control on the extended GEFS shows cold almost through all of Feb. 6 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, TacomaWx said: Hopefully it ends up working out ok. Most of us on the forum myself included have been thinking something good would come later in winter…definitely possible. I think there will be a good event out of this but obviously no clue if it is more of an arctic event or snowy. Maybe both but just too early to get excited. I'm already happy just to be seeing below normal temps the last several days, and very likely for days to come. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm already happy just to be seeing below normal temps the last several days, and very likely for days to come. Yeah it’s nice the real torching is on hold for awhile either way most likely. This would be a nice bonus on top of what’s already been a very solid winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 850s bottom out at -7.4 on this GEFS run. That's getting pretty real. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 31.7 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 good to see everything is still on track gfs gunna gfs ain't worried 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 dang down to 18 already. that wasn't expected. forecast low was 22 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: 31.7 32.0 here and falling at a decent clip still. I'm liking this. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The Colliding Spiral Galaxies of Arp 274 2023 January 23 Image Credit: NASA, ESA, Hubble; Processing & Copyright: Mehmet Hakan Özsaraç Explanation: Two galaxies are squaring off in Virgo and here are the latest pictures. When two galaxies collide, the stars that compose them usually do not. This is because galaxies are mostly empty space and, however bright, stars only take up only a small fraction of that space. But during the collision, one galaxy can rip the other apart gravitationally, and dust and gas common to both galaxies does collide. If the two galaxies merge, black holes that likely resided in each galaxy center may eventually merge. Because the distances are so large, the whole thing takes place in slow motion -- over hundreds of millions of years. Besides the two large spiral galaxies, a smaller third galaxy is visible on the far left of the featured image of Arp 274, also known as NGC 5679. Arp 274 spans about 200,000 light years across and lies about 400 million light years away toward the constellation of Virgo. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 1 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 2 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 ECMWF already looking better than the GFS and little changed form it's 12z run. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Interesting. What small changes there are seem to be in the right direction (away from the look of the GFS). 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GEM ensembles look great. 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: ECMWF already looking better than the GFS and little changed form it's 12z run. Don't jinx it! But yes, I'd agree 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 HR 78 Ridge merger ECMWF hi-res, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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