snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, RentonHill said: EPS day 5 vs 12z Wowwwww!!! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm good if this is as good as gets from a 500mb perspective. 500mb can't get much better than that I'll agree with you there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??! Anything’s possible lol. Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, TT-SEA said: Wasn't that a quick hitter in an otherwise warm month? This seems more persistent. The second shortwave is pretty similar as progged by the international camp. A lot weaker, but seems to evolve rapidly and skips the whole persistent southerly flow hangups we routinely get down here. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal. 2 2 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, BLI snowman said: Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Nice euro run. Not as cold as we saw some of them back in December. maybe tiger gets another subfreezing high. 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EPS day 6 vs 12z 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick. 1 4 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Meatyorologist said: It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick. What doesn't? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick. Where is this post? I wanna read it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal. Even seeing a modeled blast at this point makes this January a major win by 21st century standards! Beats probably 75% of them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EPS day 7 vs 12z 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Anything’s possible lol. Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year. The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Good Lord! 10 days out still 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: 10 days out still Cold air arrives Day 6 to 6.5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick. Wow. It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino. A shake up might be good. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EPS day 8 vs 12z 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Cold air arrives Day 6 to 6.5 possibility there we get colder than in December. this is nuts 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Meatyorologist said: The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable. But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully). 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain I would gladly take a 2019 summer over another summer/fall like 2022. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: 10 days out still As already mentioned, the pattern is already well in place by day 6. But regardless, 10 days out on the Euro is hardly worthless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Tonga January 2023 was known as the beginning of the great mini ice age lasting 300 years. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Phil said: 1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum. Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 500mb can't get much better than that I'll agree with you there. Uh could use better 500mb pattern at least for Seattle snow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z CMCE Day 8! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but it kind of looks like the mother of all reloads is coming on the last few frames of the Euro. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: EPS day 8 vs 12z The increase in snow and cold confidence is palpable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EPS day 9 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Phil said: Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable. But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully). Fully expect to reach to at least Von Miller's jersey number of 90Fs. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, BLI snowman said: Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. Haha. Yeah that cold is over in Putin territory this year. Goes to show how complicated analogs can be. Rarely can you take a year and just run with it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: EPS day 9 Could use a shift west. But I'll take it for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EPS day 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just so y’all know… 1/22/89 was also Sunday. Should be interesting to see how that analog holds up as the end of the month approaches… 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Wow. It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino. A shake up might be good. I think you and I both know we will all roast and there is just about nothing we can do about it. Who knows though. Summer 2022 marked the tenth summer of the 2013-22 hot stretch. Maybe we'll call it an even ten and be done with it. But after last summer, with how irredeemably hot it became despite the intense -ENSO and cold Spring preceding it, I have doubts it's possible anymore. 1 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Very obvious something has really changed tonight. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Now that the ridge merger occurs just after Day 3 the models are getting a better handle on things. The sooner we achieve that the quicker we'll get into the cold pattern, which to me looks like at least a ~30% chance now for arctic air. 6z NAM in 12 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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