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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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Just now, RentonHill said:

EPS day 5 vs 12z

E2AA802D-436A-4409-AC7C-F78C29B76F8A.png

EC700266-6387-4611-AA9F-070BC1E1769B.png

Wowwwww!!!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

Anything’s possible lol.

Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wasn't that a quick hitter in an otherwise warm month?    This seems more persistent.

The second shortwave is pretty similar as progged by the international camp. A lot weaker, but seems to evolve rapidly and skips the whole persistent southerly flow hangups we routinely get down here. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 

Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 

1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum.

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It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

Where is this post? I wanna read it. 🤠

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal.

Even seeing a modeled blast at this point makes this January a major win by 21st century standards! Beats probably 75% of them.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anything’s possible lol.

Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year.

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

Wow.    It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino.    A shake up might be good.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

The Implication Always Sunny GIFs | Tenor

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable. :( 

But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully).

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

I would gladly take a 2019 summer over another summer/fall like 2022.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum.

Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around :( Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. 

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Just now, Phil said:

Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable. :( 

But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully).

Fully expect to reach to at least Von Miller's jersey number of 90Fs.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around :( Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. 

Haha. Yeah that cold is over in Putin territory this year.

Goes to show how complicated analogs can be. Rarely can you take a year and just run with it.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow.    It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino.    A shake up might be good.

I think you and I both know we will all roast and there is just about nothing we can do about it. Who knows though. Summer 2022 marked the tenth summer of the 2013-22 hot stretch. Maybe we'll call it an even ten and be done with it.

But after last summer, with how irredeemably hot it became despite the intense -ENSO and cold Spring preceding it, I have doubts it's possible anymore.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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