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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah there are phase diagrams on Michael Ventrice’s site that isolate freqs of MJO, CCKW, etc.

Though I usually just filter it out mentally looking at VP200 hovmollers. Don’t really need phase diagrams to know where the MJO is..if anything I believe they’re counterproductive except for analog/cluster analyses.

I had a rad Hovmoller costume for Halloween. No one knew wtf I was though.

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Not looking good. Perhaps a slushy half inch (not even an inch) of slop that will melt before the chillier air slowly creeps into Northern Snohomish County for a day or two. I think this is the start of a 2012/13 to 2016/17  redux up here. The lucky bastards well to my south will be basking in glory for years again while it’s full on dullsville up here. 😔 

 

Okay got my daily weenie post out of the way! I’m getting buried in white coming up…Book it! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Not looking good. Perhaps a slushy half inch (not even an inch) of slop that will melt before the chillier air slowly creeps into Northern Snohomish County for a day or two. I think this is the start of a 2012/13 to 2016/17  redux up here. The lucky bastards well to my south will be basking in glory for years again while it’s full on dullsville up here. 😔 

 

Okay got my daily weenie post out of the way! I’m getting buried in white coming up…Book it! 

Even though it looks dry now…a lot of times there’s unforecasted surprises. Just getting the cold air in place is the first step. It’s honestly pretty rare to get a cold/dry blast here only a couple events in my lifetime have produced no snowfall at all. 

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The EPS is definitely a little better despite the block also looking more disorganized next week.   Not sure what to make of that but its always better to have the EPS on board.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the control is even worse than the operational next week.   The block floats away quickly.   Huge change from 12Z run.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5209600.png

Not good and kind of aligns with the GFS fuzz…

Could be a very quick hitter unfortunately. 

C1C0FAD1-3177-43DC-A1F5-17AF8B054603.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Anyone else listening to Christmas lights gazing out the window visualizing, dreaming, counting snowflakes that are 8-143 days away?

What do Christmas lights gazing out the window sound like?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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So EPS improves, and we will dismiss it, but we were panicking about the EPS yesterday... OKAY. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So EPS improves, and we will dismiss it, but we were panicking about the EPS yesterday... OKAY. 

It’s gotten a lot better since 12z yesterday.

EE70ACD8-3D2C-4AD3-A833-639AC20ECEC1.png

08C4F211-6157-48DC-AD02-8F3BD3B7FAA0.png

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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EURO looks good. Those late-week details are going to waffle around, I'm not going to worry too much. That first shortwave drifting down is pretty interesting for the WV, though 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Reload looks closer to us on this run though rather than completely sliding east like last night

this makes me feel a little better. Lots of good EPS members out there still. But GEM/Euro operationals led the way for the first shot, and have now backed off the second one. Really wish one of the two had stayed solid. As with yesterday, i'm sure the 18z GFS will guide us to the light. ecmwf-ensemble-KBFI-indiv_tmp_min-4475200.thumb.png.5ceb662dd74650e3d8420a7cf31252c8.png

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

this makes me feel a little better. Lots of good EPS members out there still. But GEM/Euro operationals led the way for the first shot, and have now backed off the second one. Really wish one of the two had stayed solid. As with yesterday, i'm sure the 18z GFS will guide us to the light. ecmwf-ensemble-KBFI-indiv_tmp_min-4475200.thumb.png.5ceb662dd74650e3d8420a7cf31252c8.png

Euro op also did show the second shot going out way over the Pacific ocean on one run while the EPS didn't agree, maybe it's just one run and it'll do something like that again.

Glad the first shot looks good so far.

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Looks like it's going to be a long week huh?🤣 

Low of 28F currently 34F and finally the fog it's clearing. 

We have an Air Stagnation Advisory1/23 04:00 PM PST until 1/27 12:00 PM PST so this means very cold mornings. 

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