Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: Yeah there are phase diagrams on Michael Ventrice’s site that isolate freqs of MJO, CCKW, etc. Though I usually just filter it out mentally looking at VP200 hovmollers. Don’t really need phase diagrams to know where the MJO is..if anything I believe they’re counterproductive except for analog/cluster analyses. I had a rad Hovmoller costume for Halloween. No one knew wtf I was though. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 chilly 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EPS looks .......................... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Not looking good. Perhaps a slushy half inch (not even an inch) of slop that will melt before the chillier air slowly creeps into Northern Snohomish County for a day or two. I think this is the start of a 2012/13 to 2016/17 redux up here. The lucky bastards well to my south will be basking in glory for years again while it’s full on dullsville up here. Okay got my daily weenie post out of the way! I’m getting buried in white coming up…Book it! 2 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: EPS looks .......................... From what I can tell it looks a bit better 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, MossMan said: Not looking good. Perhaps a slushy half inch (not even an inch) of slop that will melt before the chillier air slowly creeps into Northern Snohomish County for a day or two. I think this is the start of a 2012/13 to 2016/17 redux up here. The lucky bastards well to my south will be basking in glory for years again while it’s full on dullsville up here. Okay got my daily weenie post out of the way! I’m getting buried in white coming up…Book it! Even though it looks dry now…a lot of times there’s unforecasted surprises. Just getting the cold air in place is the first step. It’s honestly pretty rare to get a cold/dry blast here only a couple events in my lifetime have produced no snowfall at all. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 FWIW... the control run is even worse than the operational next week. The block floats away quickly. Huge change from 00Z run. 1 2 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Doinko said: From what I can tell it looks a bit better It's several notches better Day 5-7. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Euro Operational wasn't bad at all for Portland at least. Few inches of snow then a subfreezing high with East wind. No reload unfortunately but the EPS actually looks better 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I had a rad Hovmoller costume for Halloween. No one knew wtf I was though. That's funny, I dressed as Michael Ventrice last year and everyone was impressed. Edited January 23, 2023 by BLI snowman 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The EPS is definitely a little better despite the block also looking more disorganized next week. Not sure what to make of that but its always better to have the EPS on board. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: FWIW... the control is even worse than the operational next week. The block floats away quickly. Huge change from 12Z run. Not good and kind of aligns with the GFS fuzz… Could be a very quick hitter unfortunately. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: That's funny, I dressed as Michael Ventrice last year and everyone was impressed. They were out of stock of Ventrice masks at Party Depot! Ugh! 00z GFS in 8 hours 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Not good and kind of aligns with the GFS fuzz… Could be a very quick hitter unfortunately. More like a no hitter for northern Snohomish County and Skagit County. Maybe even a perfect game. 1 4 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Anyone else listening to Christmas lights gazing out the window visualizing, dreaming, counting snowflakes that are 8-143 days away? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Anyone else listening to Christmas lights gazing out the window visualizing, dreaming, counting snowflakes that are 8-143 days away? What do Christmas lights gazing out the window sound like? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: What do Christmas lights gazing out the window sound like? Like when Jiffy Pop Pops only jingly jangly soundin' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I think it was @Deweydog that said this was going to be a long week. Yeah. No kidding! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 ain't skeer'd 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 So EPS improves, and we will dismiss it, but we were panicking about the EPS yesterday... OKAY. 3 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So EPS improves, and we will dismiss it, but we were panicking about the EPS yesterday... OKAY. Not enough snow in King/Snohomish/Skagit counties 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So EPS improves, and we will dismiss it, but we were panicking about the EPS yesterday... OKAY. It’s gotten a lot better since 12z yesterday. 4 1 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: Bi block! The block is bisexual? 1 Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Where the fu$k is Jim when we need him? Laying low for this inevitable rug pull probably. I think it’s time for Terreboner to have a conference call. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 EURO looks good. Those late-week details are going to waffle around, I'm not going to worry too much. That first shortwave drifting down is pretty interesting for the WV, though 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 looks like 2/1-2/6 might get a little snowy over this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Having those snowflakes in a little over a week will be enough to get some buzz at work. 3 1 Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So EPS improves, and we will dismiss it, but we were panicking about the EPS yesterday... OKAY. i want heavy snow, long duration cold, and a reload. EPS shows none of that for me. MEH 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, RentonHill said: i want heavy snow, long duration cold, and a reload. EPS shows none of that for me. MEH Reload looks closer to us on this run though rather than completely sliding east like last night 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: The block is bisexual? YOU CAN’T ASK. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: Reload looks closer to us on this run though rather than completely sliding east like last night this makes me feel a little better. Lots of good EPS members out there still. But GEM/Euro operationals led the way for the first shot, and have now backed off the second one. Really wish one of the two had stayed solid. As with yesterday, i'm sure the 18z GFS will guide us to the light. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: this makes me feel a little better. Lots of good EPS members out there still. But GEM/Euro operationals led the way for the first shot, and have now backed off the second one. Really wish one of the two had stayed solid. As with yesterday, i'm sure the 18z GFS will guide us to the light. Euro op also did show the second shot going out way over the Pacific ocean on one run while the EPS didn't agree, maybe it's just one run and it'll do something like that again. Glad the first shot looks good so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I get the feeling there’s gonna be some crazy emotional model riding swings this week, but in the end some or all of us will be winners. Same thing has happened with the last 2 rounds of winter weather no reason to this time won’t be any different. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Euro op also did show the second shot going out way over the Pacific ocean on one run while the EPS didn't agree, maybe it's just one run and it'll do something like that again. Glad the first shot looks good so far. Long week 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Looks like it's going to be a long week huh? Low of 28F currently 34F and finally the fog it's clearing. We have an Air Stagnation Advisory1/23 04:00 PM PST until 1/27 12:00 PM PST so this means very cold mornings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ridge merger occurs in only 60 hours. I don't think we're going to see much if any waffling of the models this time. We'll see I guess. If anything possible Colder Runs Ahead! MBG! 18z GFS in 47 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: I get the feeling there’s gonna be some crazy emotional model riding swings this week, but in the end some or all of us will be winners. Same thing has happened with the last 2 rounds of winter weather no reason to this time won’t be any different. you're right. we need to toughen up. accept that all snow events will be good for a few folks, marginal for most, and zeroes for some. 4 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 March to remember 3 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Weekly Control has like 4-5 shots in a row. 4 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Gettin’ nice out. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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