SnowWillarrive Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Its coming Does that mean the jet stream will reverse? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) That’s some big league cold north of the Great Lakes out around 200 hours. Don’t see swaths of sub-470dm thicknesses that large too often. Edited January 23, 2023 by Deweydog 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 hours ago, Phil said: If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year. Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward. And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season. This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation. As good as a promet Larry Cosgrove is he really got burned by his consistent idea of La nina going away and El nino starting.I still wonder what he saw back in the summer and fall that made him go in that drection .He is still going with the El nino coming on this summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Randy took control of the 18Z GFS... if he can't have snow then no one gets any snow. 3 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Wow did y’all see this on the CFS?! Also the weeklies look amazing. Big league potential. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Dynamiting a few very large gaps in the Canadian Rockies would sure be nice. 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I am on board the Dewey train (February 1995 edition) 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I feel very optimistic. 6 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Dynamiting a few very large gaps in the Canadian Rockies would sure be nice. plz not another freezing rain event... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 This GFS run looks like a repeat of December kind of 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: 18z GFS in 6 minutes. We are at Uncle's house and the liquor cabinet is fully stocked. This can only lead to greatness. C'MON!!!! RIP Mr. Lahey. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Doinko said: This GFS run looks like a repeat of December kind of I think we are going to trend in a more positive direction. This trend will be apparent by mid-week, next week has BIG LEAGUE potential. 6 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we are going to trend in a more positive direction. This trend will be apparent by mid-week, next week has BIG LEAGUE potential. One way or the other I think things will look a lot different by Wednesday or Thursday. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 43 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Its coming Not my field but, but I highly doubt that’s true. 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wow did y’all see this on the CFS?! Also the weeklies look amazing. Big league potential. I vote we ban the CFS from this forum. 3 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Keeps getting better. Interesting how the CFS is cool west, warm east. GFS wants to dump all the cold air east. At least early on. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ooffff 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn’t what you’d expect ahead of an El Niño transition. Solid La Niña cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Ooffff It’s over. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn’t what you’d expect ahead of an El Niño transition. Solid La Niña cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain. I was really pleased with the weeklies. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Ooffff lol GFS is consistent on nope not happening guys sorry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Fairly benign GFS run. Feels like big league blast potential is diminishing. 1 3 1 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GFS is still out to lunch. don't sweat it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Fairly benign GFS run. Feels like big league blast potential is diminishing. Seems like the block may just disintegrate and we move back to a crap pattern of meandering muck. Not ready to buy that solution. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Fairly benign GFS run. Feels like big league blast potential is diminishing. I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GFS is definitely unfortunate. In December, we didn't have any support from CFS like we do now though, so I'm still optimistic. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Phil said: [re: Earth's inner core slowing down] Not my field but, but I highly doubt that’s true. It was news to me, too, but it seems to be a legit story. AFP is generally a pretty reliable source, and other generally reliable sources are also reporting it. Apparently, evidence for the inner core rotating faster than the rest of the Earth is only a few decades old, so it seems as if the differences in angular velocity vary over time. My guess is that these sort of variations have been going on for millions of years. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! All you need is the one that coats. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Our country's showcase model is still a heaping pile of shiit. it's really unfortunate 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Jet extension on the GFS does NOT look as strong as late December’s. Hmmmmmmm… 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: Jet extension on the GFS does NOT look as strong as late December’s. Hmmmmmmm… Look for that to back off even further. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Holatta spread in the ensembles beyond day six or so. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days. Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails. Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs! 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 you guys need a nap I'm about to take my daily one 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 28” of snow here in January 2020. nice Fraser river event. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days. Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails. Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs! This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue… 3 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue… I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today. Oh snap! Our first forecast! I am firing up a contest tonight. If only for the fact that it’s a forecast contest IN JANUARY! 4 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Doinko said: Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved 850s bottoming out in the -8 to -10 range seems like a reasonable expectation 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Close your eyes Portland 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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