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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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15 hours ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

DE37A1E3-0390-4D16-B3AC-7000FE14A2C3.gif

As good as a promet Larry Cosgrove is he really got burned by his consistent idea of La nina going away and El nino starting.I still wonder what he saw back in the summer and fall that made him go in that drection 🤔.He is still going with the El nino coming on this summer.

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Wow did y’all see this on the CFS?! Also the weeklies look amazing. Big league potential. 

19F4D50C-D944-4310-B933-BCF5A2CD1FDB.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am on board the Dewey train (February 1995 edition)

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I feel very optimistic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GFS in 6 minutes. We are at Uncle's house and the liquor cabinet is fully stocked. This can only lead to greatness. C'MON!!!!

jim-lahey-lahey.gif

RIP Mr. Lahey. 😔

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This GFS run looks like a repeat of December kind of

I think we are going to trend in a more positive direction. This trend will be apparent by mid-week, next week has BIG LEAGUE potential. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are going to trend in a more positive direction. This trend will be apparent by mid-week, next week has BIG LEAGUE potential. 

One way or the other I think things will look a lot different by Wednesday or Thursday.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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43 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Its coming

 

 

Not my field but, but I highly doubt that’s true.

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow did y’all see this on the CFS?! Also the weeklies look amazing. Big league potential. 

19F4D50C-D944-4310-B933-BCF5A2CD1FDB.png

I vote we ban the CFS from this forum. 

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Keeps getting better. Interesting how the CFS is cool west, warm east. GFS wants to dump all the cold air east. At least early on. 

cfs-mon_01_T850a_namer_1.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ooffff

gfs_T850a_namer_53.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn’t what you’d expect ahead of an El Niño transition. Solid La Niña cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain.

8F69435A-B6AE-4068-BAA0-7896C385B05B.png 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn’t what you’d expect ahead of an El Niño transition. Solid La Niña cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain.

8F69435A-B6AE-4068-BAA0-7896C385B05B.png 

I was really pleased with the weeklies.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fairly benign GFS run.  Feels like big league blast potential is diminishing. 

Seems like the block may just disintegrate and we move back to a crap pattern of meandering muck. Not ready to buy that solution.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fairly benign GFS run.  Feels like big league blast potential is diminishing. 

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

[re: Earth's inner core slowing down]

Not my field but, but I highly doubt that’s true.

It was news to me, too, but it seems to be a legit story. AFP is generally a pretty reliable source, and other generally reliable sources are also reporting it.

Apparently, evidence for the inner core rotating faster than the rest of the Earth is only a few decades old, so it seems as if the differences in angular velocity vary over time. My guess is that these sort of variations have been going on for millions of years.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

All you need is the one that coats.

image.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Jet extension on the GFS does NOT look as strong as late December’s.

Hmmmmmmm…

Look for that to back off even further. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

28” of snow here in January 2020.  nice Fraser river event. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue…

I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today.

Oh snap! Our first forecast!

I am firing up a contest tonight. If only for the fact that it’s a forecast contest IN JANUARY!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved

 

ecmwf-portland-us-456n-1(2).png

850s bottoming out in the -8 to -10 range seems like a reasonable expectation 

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