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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GFS does have something around the 4th…..

CA89612D-F41A-4616-B781-D74600D31297.png

DB9EC33A-6743-41F1-B88B-506061D58D73.png

F77EAB4D-7DE8-42FB-BDD1-35D8DB392BC3.png

Our Hawaiian departure is on 2/4... go ahead assume this will happen.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

No pepto snow maps. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No pepto snow maps. 

That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Requiem said:

That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern.

I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books?

Probably just goes to neutral this year... so it wouldn't count as a 4th year Nina.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement.

Ensembles trended better this morning. Euro op wasn't bad either with a snowfall and a subfreezing high for PDX, just no reload which could obviously change

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement.

Gfs is going in the right direction short term. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26/1 at BNO today. Brrrrr

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Man and I thought I was a weenie (I am) 😭 long week ahead 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 

We've already had a fun graupel shower, a sub-freezing high and a dynamic ice storm. Doing a helluva lot better than 2020-21 for this location for example.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. 

99242A16-109A-4EFB-AC25-BDCA7B9C4138.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z?

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14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z?

Looks a little colder for PDX than SEA... presumably due to Gorge influence.  

00Z on top and 12Z on bottom with the usual reminder that day 10 on the 12Z run is the high through 4 a.m.  ;)

ecmwf-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4432000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4475200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Been noticing the local year-round birds have become extremely active the past few days...trying to decide if they know something is coming or if they know its over.

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

D900C5F0-61CD-468D-992E-8E18D9A78BA6.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

D900C5F0-61CD-468D-992E-8E18D9A78BA6.jpeg

LOL!  I missed that post, haven't had much time to keep up with the forum lately.  Good to know I'm not the only one noticing it.  My Golden Retriever has a very heavy emphasis on the "retriever" part and has been super distracted and almost impossible to train because of all of the bird flying around.  It's bad enough she is in her "angsty teenager phase" and the birds are not helping one bit!

We stayed socked in all day, temps 42/34

 

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

D900C5F0-61CD-468D-992E-8E18D9A78BA6.jpeg

Something else is coming as well...  

 

sbs.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If I remember correctly... it has become almost routine with these events for the models to show something epic and then back down and then come roaring back as it gets closer.   This just happened with the December event.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Terreboner2 said:

Just realized the mid-late December cold snap was +PNA.  If she rises after February 1st I'm not too worried.  It could also level off and fall that far out.  Good times ahead.

Edit: A good portion of it was +PNA

PNA is overrated w/rt arctic air potential. Alaska ridge/-EPO is the important one.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If I remember correctly... it has become almost routine with these events for the models to show something epic and then back down and then come roaring back as it gets closer.   This just happened with the December event.  

I mention this at least once everytime we are in this mode. People always forget that.

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