SouthHillFrosty Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The GFS does have something around the 4th….. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: The GFS does have something around the 4th….. Our Hawaiian departure is on 2/4... go ahead assume this will happen. 1 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much 4 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Requiem said: Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much No pepto snow maps. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Our Hawaiian departure is on 2/4... go ahead assume this will happen. Thanks for your sacrifice! 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 23, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: No pepto snow maps. That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Requiem said: That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern. I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 57 minutes ago, Phil said: VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn’t what you’d expect ahead of an El Niño transition. Solid La Niña cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain. How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Maybe I go back to my original guess of third week of feb 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, Requiem said: Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much Agreed. EPS was great with many members in the -10 to -20c range 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books? None. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Maybe I go back to my original guess of third week of feb chasing the big one all winter long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books? Probably just goes to neutral this year... so it wouldn't count as a 4th year Nina. 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Doinko said: Agreed. EPS was great with many members in the -10 to -20c range I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement. 18z GEFS looks worse. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Slushy Inch said: I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement. Ensembles trended better this morning. Euro op wasn't bad either with a snowfall and a subfreezing high for PDX, just no reload which could obviously change 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement. Gfs is going in the right direction short term. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Tonight's runs are going to be fantastic! 00z GFS in 3 hours 23 minutes 00z GEM in 3 hours 43 minutes 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 33 minutes 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Gfs is going in the right direction short term. Really? 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 26/1 at BNO today. Brrrrr 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Man and I thought I was a weenie (I am) long week ahead 5 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. We've already had a fun graupel shower, a sub-freezing high and a dynamic ice storm. Doing a helluva lot better than 2020-21 for this location for example. 2 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. I stared at this photo for the better part of five minutes waiting for Sasquatch to walk by in the background. 2 6 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days. Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails. Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs! What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Riding Operationals is bad juju 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, Doinko said: What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z? Looks a little colder for PDX than SEA... presumably due to Gorge influence. 00Z on top and 12Z on bottom with the usual reminder that day 10 on the 12Z run is the high through 4 a.m. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Been noticing the local year-round birds have become extremely active the past few days...trying to decide if they know something is coming or if they know its over. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Riding Operationals is bad juju Riding the models in general is bad juju 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Been noticing the local year-round birds have become extremely active the past few days...trying to decide if they know something is coming or if they know its over. Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Local ABC news is all in. calling for a high of 18 on Monday low of 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Noticeable shift east on the 18Z EPS and control run with first and second round... only goes out through 144 hours though. 1 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Local ABC news is all in. calling for a high of 18 on Monday low of 5 Riding the local news affiliates is even worse juju. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. LOL! I missed that post, haven't had much time to keep up with the forum lately. Good to know I'm not the only one noticing it. My Golden Retriever has a very heavy emphasis on the "retriever" part and has been super distracted and almost impossible to train because of all of the bird flying around. It's bad enough she is in her "angsty teenager phase" and the birds are not helping one bit! We stayed socked in all day, temps 42/34 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Riding the local news affiliates is even worse juju. turned it on to watch some sports news. but yeah most likely. It's over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 23 minutes ago, MossMan said: Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. Something else is coming as well... 1 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 If I remember correctly... it has become almost routine with these events for the models to show something epic and then back down and then come roaring back as it gets closer. This just happened with the December event. 6 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: Our country's showcase model is still a heaping pile of shiit. it's really unfortunate The CFS? 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Terreboner2 said: Just realized the mid-late December cold snap was +PNA. If she rises after February 1st I'm not too worried. It could also level off and fall that far out. Good times ahead. Edit: A good portion of it was +PNA PNA is overrated w/rt arctic air potential. Alaska ridge/-EPO is the important one. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: If I remember correctly... it has become almost routine with these events for the models to show something epic and then back down and then come roaring back as it gets closer. This just happened with the December event. I mention this at least once everytime we are in this mode. People always forget that. 3 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. Very nice Monet painting. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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