This is probably going to be a memorable outbreak for some. Everything is coming together for some big days. SPC just updated their day 3 outlook to add an enhanced. I suspect we get a moderate or two during this stretch.
My experience says May-September is the intolerable season, and obviously June is the worst since its just sunny and hot. If you go up to Flag or some of the other communities it makes a big difference.
A more in-depth analysis of the event from Rollenbeck at al, 2022:
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/4/824
Note the murky overlap between EOF(s) defining niña-modoki and niño-costero. The truth is ENSO has multiple spectra, and the niño 3.4/ONI metric is out of date (and should be done away with entirely).
The 2023/24 niño emerged from a niño-costero event. First time we’ve seen that type of evolution before the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift.
This is fascinating stuff when you really dig into it.
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