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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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GEFS mean bottoms out at -8.9 on the 850s for SEA.  Coldest run yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's Salem and Portland like? 

Similar for EUG.

1674518400-WuottBZNJjU.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Even more absurd. They both fall below freezing starting on 1/29 and don't go above it for the entire rest of the run.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-KSLE-daily_tmin_tmax-4518400.png

gfs-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4518400.png

The minus 17 on Feb 6 is pretty out there alright!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Isn't Sequim a good spot for upsloping moisture with northerly flow though?

Can be closer to the foothills . Near Dungeness spit is usually snowless regardless. I went there to the wild animal farm during February 2019 and they had very little.  A dusting. Meanwhile at Bainbridge there was a foot. And near Port Ludlow about 8inchez

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The temp is falling slowly tonight.  Down to 35.8.  Might eek out a freeze.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Waiting for that EURO gut punch...

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

models-2023012400-f096.500h_anom.na.gif

Interesting to see how GFS and EURO handle that initial little push of lower heights in comparison with the GEM.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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34 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Ok why is everyone saying “hE gOT thAT dOg In hIM” and “SOMe BIg DaWGz oN THiS RuN” all the sudden 

 

9D368EEF-634A-4C1F-9C13-DFC883DB4728.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The block is certainly more impressive at the base than the GFS was at day 3.5 or so.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Interesting to see how GFS and EURO handle that initial little push of lower heights in comparison with the GEM.

Honestly that may be a good sign. The earlier runs of the GFS didn't handle the initial push like the 00z GFS and Euro are so far. This might be a good run.

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3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Euro could still go either way at this point. Definitely some differences from the GFS already, but hard to say so far if they are positive or negative changes.

Block is much fatter and less amplified than the GFS at day 4. Probably won't produce snowfall anything like the GFS, but nice to see the block look that stout. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The block is certainly more impressive at the base than the GFS was at day 3.5 or so.

Definitely. But then it doesn't extend nearly as far north, so I'm not 100% sure whether or not this is a net win or not. Guess we'll find out over the next few frames here, lol.

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Definitely. But then it doesn't extend nearly as far north, so I'm not 100% sure whether or not this is a net win or not. Guess we'll find out over the next few frames here, lol.

The surface high block extends to the pole pretty early in the run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Definitely. But then it doesn't extend nearly as far north, so I'm not 100% sure whether or not this is a net win or not. Guess we'll find out over the next few frames here, lol.

At that point, it's better to not be amplifying north too quick. That's the fast track to losing the block and getting undercutting too soon to allow deep cold penetration.

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