PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 52 minutes. There is no way I'll be awake for this run. Have a good night all!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Colder trend on the EPS continues.

I'm seriously wondering if the SSW completion about 10 days from now could prolong this coming cold wave, or give us a shot at another later on.

I think Phil posted earlier today about the SSW not being significant this time around... and I think it takes 2-4 weeks for it to impact the weather so that would probably be late February or early March?   But I don't know if any of that is accurate.

[RentonHill]

[Slushy Inch]

2 inch mean isn't too bad.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Decent end.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

32F with some freezing fog. Grateful to be in a place that can do so well for freezes.

Did I miss anything good tonight?

[TT-SEA]

EPS shows almost the entire country being cold in the long range.   Old school stuff.   Even Phil might get some winter! 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Phil posted earlier today about the SSW not being significant this time around... and I think it takes 2-4 weeks for it to impact the weather so that would probably be late February or early March?   But I don't know if any of that is accurate.

We'll have to wait and see.  The first round of SSW has already happened, but there will be another round in a few days.  I'm wondering if it could knock out the Hudon's Bay low.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

32F with some freezing fog. Grateful to be in a place that can do so well for freezes.

Did I miss anything good tonight?

The GFS shows you getting down to -12.  That's something I guess.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The GFS shows you getting down to -12.  That's something I guess.

We should hit the links and see if we can even find the flagsticks.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We should hit the links and see if we can even find the flagsticks.

The -12 will be at night. It will be warmer during the day.  

[Deweydog]

PDX down to 42 above zero.

[LowerGarfield]

I'm awake and it is 26F outside.

[AbbyJr]

 

[SpaceRace22]

The 00z Euro Ensembles have quite a few very snowy members for both Portland and Seattle. Also a handful of outrageously cold members as well. The dry and short lived solution of operational is definitely the outlier here.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS keeps EPO and PNA both solidly below the zero line for the entire run now.  Getting better and better.

[SpaceRace22]

06z GFS looking good so far. Block is nice and healthy and the cold air is making excellent progress into BC by hour 100. Maybe a hair behind the 00z, but still a dramatic improvement from the 18z.

[SpaceRace22]

Day 5. Looking a little wonky, but I still like it better than the 18z.

[SpaceRace22]

Day 6

[SpaceRace22]

Day 7. The hammer might be about to drop here... maybe.

[SpaceRace22]

Day 8. Swing and a miss.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift fail

[Requiem]

Odd progression-- won't be ironed out for a while especially not with the consistently inconsistent GFS. Keep the faith!

[SpaceRace22]

Day 9. So this run never really gets there, BUT the block remains very strong and healthy on this run just like the 00z had it, so I would still call this a good run for a 06z operational. Here is a comparison of the 06z, 00z, and 18z GFS. Notice how even though the details just ever so slightly don't work out here, the general pattern on the 06z is MUCH more in line with the 00z than the 18z. It would only take a very minute change to move this run from a bust to something really great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly morning 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws going with 34/19 here on Monday. 

[TT-SEA]

06Z EPS shifted east again... the control run is a little west on Saturday and then shifted east at the end of the run (144 hours) compared to its 00Z run.

Neither the EPS or the control run show any lowland snow through the weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The big question is what will our weather team find to be unhappy with today? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I saw Flagstaff Arizona has had 57.9” of snow this month and currently has a 30” depth.

[Tyler Mode]

First freeze since the 2nd!  Wahoooooo

[TT-SEA]

06Z GEFS...

 

[Doinko]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z EPS shifted east again... the control run is a little west on Saturday and then shifted east at the end of the run (144 hours) compared to its 00Z run.

Neither the EPS or the control run show any lowland snow through the weekend.

EPS control gets 850s down to -12.6c over PDX

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw Flagstaff Arizona has had 57.9” of snow this month and currently has a 30” depth.

Saw that too! And they're currently in the middle of an impressive cold snap, building up a noice negative temp departure for Jan. With the huge snowpack and continued NW flow, they'll remain chilly for a while longer.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

EPS control gets 850s down to -12.6c over PDX

Looks like EPS mean is -8C over PDX at 144 hours. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

EPS control gets 850s down to -12.6c over PDX

Yes, but what can we complain about?! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The big question is what will our weather team find to be unhappy with today? 

Unlikely to get a repeat of February 1916.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, but what can we complain about?! 

The lack of snow of course... the control run shows nothing ahead of the cold air.    Not a problem for the cold lovers though!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Unlikely to get a repeat of February 1916.

Might as well just pack up and move to Omaha. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Might as well just pack up and move to Omaha. 

You can do better than Omaha!   In terms of metro areas... the Twin Cities is way better for consistent cold and snow and they also have hills and lots of lakes.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You can do better than Omaha!   In terms of metro areas... the Twin Cities is way better for consistent cold and snow and they also have hills and lots of lakes.  

I think Buffalo has to be the best major metro area for snow in the USA. Lots of options in Canada!