BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Really hope we could see a good overrunning event towards the end. I know it's way out there but do you think the pattern is conducive to undercutting of that ridge? You never know, Euro whittles the block down more from the north but the GEM still shows some undercutting at this point and some GFS runs have flirted with the idea (That coke fueled 00z run last night did a little more than flirt). Teleconnections wise the -PNA/-EPO combo is definitely looking short lived, which opens the door for the westerlies to be the block-breaking mechanism. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Doinko said: GFS clips us with another arctic airmass and brings us a bit more snow Would be nice if we were going into a pattern with more cold chances for a little while. Impossible to say right now. I would bet that even if northerners miss out on this round there would be more chances later in February. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Some snow Tuesday on the 18z GFS. 4 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy rocks Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Boy you guys really like to whine. So far here in Sandy we have just had a nasty ice storm. Hopefully everyone can get some snow but like they say first get the cold and then maybe something will happen. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Little better so far. Overrunning event looks possible. Will have to see if some kind of Alaska ridge stays intact after it's undercut. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Give Tim the conch. He's the only one speaking the truth today. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows a high of 33 in Seattle on Monday without a cloud in the sky. In fact it shows no clouds anywhere in WA or OR that day. Days like that are amazing…With snow cover. 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Looking back further from a GOA ridge perspective, 12/6/13 appears to be the best most recent analog. Of course, from a mid range modeling perspective, the 2017 event was really prolific. I think it started pumping the brakes up stream about 72 hours out with the cut off aiding in some splitting of the initial shortwave. 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 240 hours EPS. Still an Alaska ridge, still some negative anomalies.  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Some snow Tuesday on the 18z GFS. I’m in the green. Must be all of my whining. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1989! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Very interesting undercutting happening. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Looking back further from a GOA ridge perspective, 12/6/13 appears to be the best most recent analog. Of course, from a mid range modeling perspective, the 2017 event was really prolific. I think it started pumping the brakes up stream about 72 hours out with the cut off aiding in some splitting of the initial shortwave. My old Suburban was quite frosty that day! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 GFS about to have crazy winter storm. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: 1989! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: GFS about to have crazy winter storm. Sun angles should help mitigate the icing. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Nice overrunning snowstorm 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 12Z ECMWF... 3 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF... What's with the "..." ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 @MossMan gets in on the fun 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Doinko said: @MossMan gets in on the fun 18Z GFS goes crazy with the overrunning fun. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its the nightmare of February 2014 all over again! That's funny. This area ended up with over a foot of snow in February 2014 and at this modeling juncture I believe everything was still completely high and dry over us. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Congrats Randy!! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post FroYoBro Posted January 24, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Live view of Tim posting today. 2 1 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Back from the park. More Rufous Sided Towhees and Red Wing Blackbirds than I've ever seen. 12z EPS much colder 850s west of the Cascades than December even and some suggestion now that this arctic/cold pattern could be more prolonged than previously thought even with the propensity for undercutting. Really fun stuff ahead. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just noticed that the 00Z EPS also showed the same overrunning signature and snow totals were going up in the same time frame as the 18Z GFS is showing. Waiting for the 12Z EPS to finish on WB. 6 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Cold blast with little to no snow followed by moderation as a low pushes into southern BC. I have seen this movie before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Live view of Tim posting today. Tim and Randy. 1 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its the nightmare of February 2014 all over again! I suppose it is bound to happen sooner or later. At least this time ’round I already have over 20" under my belt for the season. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just noticed that the 00Z EPS also showed the same overrunning signature and snow totals were going up in the same time frame as the 18Z GFS is showing. Waiting for the 12Z EPS to finish on WB. EPS control looks cold 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Here we go again! 4 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 PDX just hit 50. It’s over. 1 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 50 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said: I love the ups and downs you guys go through with every run. I've seen this movie before and the more I watch it, the more I feel the big one is a comin!!!!!! These Dudes be wiggin' 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 PS I just wrote an email to Pendleton NWS about the wonky readings at The Dalles the last year or so. Updates to come! 3 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: 240 hours EPS. Still an Alaska ridge, still some negative anomalies.  EPS trying to pull off the rare 'Cold Continent" anal log 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 12Z EPS and control run don't really show much of an overrunning signature in the long range compared to the 00Z run. Just a big shot of cold air and then steady moderation. Here is the time frame when the GFS shows the massive overrunning event. 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS and control run don't really show much of an overrunning signature in the long range compared to the 00Z run. Just a big shot of cold air and then steady moderation. Here is the time frame when the GFS shows the massive overrunning event. What's the 500mb pattern like for the control for the first shot? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: EPS trying to pull off the rare 'Cold Continent" anal log Dude, chill the f*ck out. 1 2 1 2 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 GEFS a bit colder. PDX: 18z -8.3c, 12z -8.1c The Dalles: 18z -15.7c, 12z -14.9c 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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