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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Really hope we could see a good overrunning event towards the end. I know it's way out there but do you think the pattern is conducive to undercutting of that ridge?

You never know, Euro whittles the block down more from the north but the GEM still shows some undercutting at this point and some GFS runs have flirted with the idea (That coke fueled 00z run last night did a little more than flirt). Teleconnections wise the -PNA/-EPO combo is definitely looking short lived, which opens the door for the westerlies to be the block-breaking mechanism.

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Just now, Doinko said:

GFS clips us with another arctic airmass and brings us a bit more snow

Would be nice if we were going into a pattern with more cold chances for a little while. Impossible to say right now. I would bet that even if northerners miss out on this round there would be more chances later in February.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a high of 33 in Seattle on Monday without a cloud in the sky.   In fact it shows no clouds anywhere in WA or OR that day.  

Days like that are amazing…With snow cover. 

48DDD4EE-547B-47B4-A93A-DE36A7EF44D0.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looking back further from a GOA ridge perspective, 12/6/13 appears to be the best most recent analog.

Of course, from a mid range modeling perspective, the 2017 event was really prolific. I think it started pumping the brakes up stream about 72 hours out with the cut off aiding in some splitting of the initial shortwave.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looking back further from a GOA ridge perspective, 12/6/13 appears to be the best most recent analog.

Of course, from a mid range modeling perspective, the 2017 event was really prolific. I think it started pumping the brakes up stream about 72 hours out with the cut off aiding in some splitting of the initial shortwave.

My old Suburban was quite frosty that day! 

E95045BE-38AC-4508-B230-0AD5E54467AA.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Back from the park. More Rufous Sided Towhees and Red Wing Blackbirds than I've ever seen.

12z EPS much colder 850s west of the Cascades than December even and some suggestion now that this arctic/cold pattern could be more prolonged than previously thought even with the propensity for undercutting. Really fun stuff ahead.

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Just noticed that the 00Z EPS also showed the same overrunning signature and snow totals were going up in the same time frame as the 18Z GFS is showing.

Waiting for the 12Z EPS to finish on WB.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z EPS and control run don't really show much of an overrunning signature in the long range compared to the 00Z run.    Just a big shot of cold air and then steady moderation.  

Here is the time frame when the GFS shows the massive overrunning event.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5555200 (1).png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_anom_stream-5555200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS and control run don't really show much of an overrunning signature in the long range compared to the 00Z run.    Just a big shot of cold air and then steady moderation.  

Here is the time frame when the GFS shows the massive overrunning event.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5555200 (1).png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_anom_stream-5555200 (1).png

What's the 500mb pattern like for the control for the first shot?

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