PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

850mb temps at their coldest for the GFS/Euro/GEM and their ensembles at PDX:

GEM: -16.0c

CMCE: -9.4c

 

GFS: -9.4c

GEFS: -8.3c

 

ECMWF: -15.0c

EPS: -11.0c

[WeatherGeek2022]

so... after catching up 6 pages either big cold or big snow again? deja vu with these cold scenarios...

[Doinko]

Look at these dewpoints on the Euro!

 

 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's the 500mb pattern like for the control for the first shot?

Models seem locked in on this now.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Look at these dewpoints on the Euro!

 

 

chapped lips alert

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS snowier!

[MossMan]

My sister was born a few days before the 1972 analog…My parents had just bought a brand new 1972 Chevy Impala. Apparently It was snowing the day he drove my mom to the hospital, on top of that he didn’t want to drive over 30mph because of the break in period…My mom was not happy with that entire situation. Probably why they divorced 18yrs later! 

[Kolk1604]

16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Look at these dewpoints on the Euro!

 

 

It's weird. When the air is that dry, it has a different feel to it. Like it's way more calm and quiet outside. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GEFS snowier!

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. Tim would never post it doe

[Kolk1604]

Off Topic 

@SouthHillFrosty this is right across from the Daffodil Bowling Alley  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

They should fire an RPG at the psychopath. That'll resolve this quickly.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]

1/24/23 3:45 PM

This evening....
00z GFS in 3 hours 50 minutes
00z GEM(Canadian) in 4 hours 10 minutes

Later this evening....
00z ECMWF in 6 hours

Let's keep the trends going!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. Tim would never post it doe

Didn't even check the GEFS. 

But in general... I post whatever snowy maps I see.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Off Topic 

@SouthHillFrosty this is right across from the Daffodil Bowling Alley  

 

Ayo wtf. Thanks for letting me know 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Look at these dewpoints on the Euro!

Not even an inch of snow, though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wonder how long it'll be before we have some massive smash bros style gunfight where no one is on anyone's side?

The end of the terrible 4th season of Westworld discusses this.

[WeatherGeek2022]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wonder how long it'll be before we have some massive smash bros style gunfight where no one is on anyone's side?

The end of the terrible 4th season of Westworld discusses this.

guns need to stop getting involved in all seriousness. shouldn't take a whole army of police to handle 1 suspect either.

[MossMan]

Road trip to Maine! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

They should fire an RPG at the psychopath. That'll resolve this quickly.

Na cops just have to watch now. Hopefully they have a sniper near to kill the *******.

[Meatyorologist]

49 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Dude, chill the f*ck out.

I'm not sure you can get an anal log that is much chillier than that.

[Everleigh]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Na cops just have to watch now. Hopefully they have a sniper near to kill the *******.

I watched a hostage type situation unfold in my neighborhood when I lived in Spanaway. Old man a few doors down lost his , had family members held in the house. I watched the cops kicked in the front door of the empty house across the street, and get a sniper into position in the window......I think the old man fired a few shots at one point....there were bullet holes in the garage door for years to come, as the house sat empty after it was all over. 

 

Anyway.....YEA SNOW MAPS! lol 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Regional!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Regional!

6"+ all the way from PDX to YVR. That would be one for the books if it verified!

Edit: Given that it’s total snow at hour 336, and given how hard it is to get a single snowstorm to cover that much area, I would guess that multiple snowfalls are involved. That’s how 2008 ended up being regionwide.

[PuyallupChris]

40 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Off Topic 

@SouthHillFrosty this is right across from the Daffodil Bowling Alley  

 

Holy crap this is right by me. Gotta call the wife. 

[Jakewestsalem]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw Flagstaff Arizona has had 57.9” of snow this month and currently has a 30” depth.

This was outside my motel room in Flagstaff last week, before the latest storms.

Locals said it's been years since there was this much on the ground.

Wonder what they are saying now?

[luminen]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Road trip to Maine! 

Big snow day here yesterday as well  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

This was outside my motel room in Flagstaff last week, before the latest storms.

Locals said it's been years since there was this much on the ground.

Wonder what they are saying now?

Nice to see but also a little sad. Back in the 80s when I lived in the Southwest, Flagstaff got mega dumps like that every few years.

[Slushy Inch]

Trend for 18 GEFS is farther west. Only reason OP GFS had less snow is because it was actually too far west. Trend for snow on GEFS is actually up. Some of this will be in view of 18z EPS.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF at the end of the run (90 hours).   Just a notch east of the 12Z run at that time.

 

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Regional!

.017 inch per hour rates here!

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF at the end of the run (90 hours).   Just a notch east of the 12Z run at that time.

 

[fubario]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. Tim would never post it doe

how dare u

[MossMan]

Too far east! Too far west! Too far south! Too far north! Tooooo Farrrrrrrr!!!!! 

[fubario]

55 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wonder how long it'll be before we have some massive smash bros style gunfight where no one is on anyone's side?

The end of the terrible 4th season of Westworld discusses this.

is there a series in history that went from really good to complete trash like westworld?? tf happened there?

[Omegaraptor]

Corvallis and Eugene pulled off a sub-40 high today.

At the same time, Brookings and Redding got to the 70s. Downslopes and inversions on full display today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, fubario said:

is there a series in history that went from really good to complete trash like westworld?? tf happened there?

Game of Thrones pretty much sadly.

[TT-SEA]

18Z EPS starting soon... and go out through Monday.

[fubario]

NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in
decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern
towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive
troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with
surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center
developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser
Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards
this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south
across Western Washington leading to well-below average
temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also
bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on
if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If
manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are
leaning towards the lower side.

McMillian

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

You're like a broken record.  I see why you're pessimistic about the Hawks all year.

My Seahawks predictions proved to be more realistic than yours... they would be 17-0 and marching into the Super Bowl if you were right.   But of course that is not life in the real world.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS starting soon... and go out through Monday.

Both ensembles have trended west, I hope to see that continue.