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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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1 minute ago, fubario said:

NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in
decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern
towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive
troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with
surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center
developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser
Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards
this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south
across Western Washington leading to well-below average
temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also
bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on
if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If
manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are
leaning towards the lower side.

McMillian

Not on board for accumulations? More like low confidence and leaning towards lower sides.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

My sister was born a few days before the 1972 analog…My parents had just bought a brand new 1972 Chevy Impala. Apparently It was snowing the day he drove my mom to the hospital, on top of that he didn’t want to drive over 30mph because of the break in period…My mom was not happy with that entire situation. Probably why they divorced 18yrs later! 

ACB1F41C-3BBF-4490-B02E-192748ADB55C.jpeg

Wow!  That same day was one of my best childhood memories.   The school bus ride home was an epic journey in my 8 year old mind.  To this day one of the premier snow events I've seen here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I didn’t even bother watching the 4th season after the 3rd one. The first season was really cool but just wasn’t nearly as good after that. 

The books are incredible and different than the series.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not on board for accumulations? More like low confidence and leaning towards lower sides.

Hard call at this point.  All I can say is most late January cold waves have snow with them.  Not all but most.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Both ensembles have trended west, I hope to see that continue.

It seems like its basically locked in now through day 6... any changes will probably be just slight wobbles.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Another day of model improvement.  I was pretty stunned to see the mean 850s drop to -12 on the EPS.  Last two GEFS show -10.  At this point I think SEA could easily pull off something like a 32/18 type of day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Another day of model improvement.  I was pretty stunned to see the mean 850s drop to -12 on the EPS.  Last two GEFS show -10.  At this point I think SEA could easily off something like a 32/18 type of day.

That is pretty much what the 12Z ECMWF showed for Monday.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like its basically locked in now through day 6... any changes will probably be just slight wobbles.

At this point the snow is the biggest question mark.   As always.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the snow is the biggest question mark.   As always.

I am much less confident than usual in that regard... at least going into the cold.    The GFS has really been speeding up the Saturday front and the ECMWF has been showing it moving through fast on every run.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the snow is the biggest question mark.   As always.

Just a little too far east overall it looks like. Really need to see things have a little better positioning for snow…although a surprise snow wouldn’t be shocking. Always is a thread the needle situation to get snow. Little too far east and it’s cold with no snow…little too far west chilly rain below 500’. 

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Probably better snow chances PDX south. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z GFS was fun 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Congrats EPS is worse!

Not really enough to be any sort of concerning change 🙏

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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-6 departure at Salem and Eugene today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only a wobble... 00Z run will wobble back.

It’s definitely going to get cold at this point. But will it be highs in the mid 30s or maybe upper 20s to around freezing? I wouldn’t be surprised if many places had high temps right around the freezing mark but SEA manages to get above freezing still. 

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Wow 12z euro bottomed out at -16.2 C at PDX . Brrrrr 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely going to get cold at this point. But will it be highs in the mid 30s or maybe upper 20s to around freezing? I wouldn’t be surprised if many places had high temps right around the freezing mark but SEA manages to get above freezing still. 

SEA will do fine if the surface winds are northerly as opposed to east.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 12z euro bottomed out at -16.2 C at PDX . Brrrrr 

First notable late January blast since 1996.  Another one that had snow BTW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

First notable late January blast since 1996.  Another one that had snow BTW.

Hasn’t happened yet so we ll see.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

Glad I'm a 9ers' fan.

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Seems like an extension on the cold pattern from what models are showing now is pretty possible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

That is just how Randy and I deal with Seahawks games... particularly over the last few years of mediocrity.   Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised at times.   But they were better than I expected.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is just how Randy and I deal with Seahawks games... particularly over the last few years of mediocrity.   Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised at times.   But they were better than I expected.   

I need to do this with Ohio State football. I’m tired of losing 

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18 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

LOL.  I was a 9er's fan long before the Seahawks were born.  But to be fair, I've probably been to 50 hawks games over the years.

I am a Niners fan right now.   Want them to go through the same hangover that the Rams had this year. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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