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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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1 hour ago, fubario said:

NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in
decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern
towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive
troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with
surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center
developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser
Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards
this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south
across Western Washington leading to well-below average
temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also
bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on
if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If
manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are
leaning towards the lower side.

McMillian

Think dust storms and blowing tumbleweeds in the Fraser Valley, C'MON!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

Yeah obviously the -16C is the euro doing euro things.

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now.

The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas.

Edited by Deweydog
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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-namer-z500_anom-1674518400-1675555200-1677283200-40.gif

 

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1674518400-1675641600-1677196800-40.gif

Looks fantastic 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Yikes

 

 

Ridiculous. The joys of social media. What's even worse, those are probably adults, and I can damn well remember when adults never used to act like this, or how we've seen them this progressively worsen the past 10 years online. Just the way it is. Those kind of people know there are no repercussions for anything they say, and on social media there isn't. Hiding behind a screen of anonymity and feeling entitled due to no consequences.

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 35 minutes

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5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS 

snku_acc-imp.us_state_or (1).png

snku_acc-imp.us_state_wa (2).png

It was a nice run. 

 

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! 

This could be a tough one north of Longview. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was a nice run. 

 

This could be a tough one north of Longview. 

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm…

Edited by MossMan
  • Snow 1
  • Weenie 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm…

i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm…

The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Jeez. How much snow did you end up with that month?

About 36” when all was said and done. And that at 280’ ASL. There was even more where I live now at 580’. 

  • Snow 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Icon off to a good start.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. 

Think I ended up with about 3” that day though it’s fuzzy. I only have pics well into the event where I was already buried. I do have this though! 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-
TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST
TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF SUB-FREEZING AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FROM THE NORTH AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Road trip to Maine! 

C74B4480-3CA9-40EF-961B-8F437872FD27.jpeg

Funny I was just looking at the Maine coast on google earth. :lol: 

I would love living there. Dämn.

5E13C8F2-2B7B-45AE-BB8C-8D8EB7AAFA54.jpeg99F53D51-FEBD-478E-B4D0-E13974B1A883.jpegECB19F0E-CB5A-42FD-8E13-C9E08BC40A3C.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol

Well I would take 3” going onto this…Like what I got on that date! Though I am seeing a lot of Euro maps as showing zilch up here. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine :) 

You will at least get Kold. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Icon is legit. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Speak for yourself buddy 😂😂

November 29th-December 4th was pretty solid here with snow every day for 6 days straight. Then a significant arctic blast with close to 1” of snow 12/20-12/23. We’ve had 6” of snow already this season so if we get nothing I’m happy with how it played out. We still could get surprised by this pattern though and get some snow but I don’t think so. 

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