Cascadia_Wx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hasn’t happened yet so we ll see. That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Probably better snow chances PDX south. There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now. 4 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, fubario said: NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south across Western Washington leading to well-below average temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are leaning towards the lower side. McMillian Think dust storms and blowing tumbleweeds in the Fraser Valley, C'MON! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thickhog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years. I need to feel the bitter cold on my bare nipples before believing. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now. You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards? The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish. 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now. i was thinking the same thing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 On 12/15/2022 at 12:02 PM, RentonHill said: For no reason whatsoever 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years. Yeah obviously the -16C is the euro doing euro things. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards? The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish. One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now. The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas. Edited January 25, 2023 by Deweydog 6 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Snowfan Posted January 25, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Hello everyone. I have been a long time lurker on this forum and I am hoping for these model outputs do trend snowier because this will be my last winter in the PNW. I appreciate all of the model analysis and information you guys have provided. I have learned alot from all of you guys. 13 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 How do the weeklies look for Sunday? You’d think the model able to predict the weather 42 days from now should knock five days from now out of the park. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Yikes 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol 10 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Looks fantastic 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Sitting at 2.85” of rain MTD. We will likely finish with just half of normal January rainfall. Better news is the mean temp this month is down to +2.2F. The way it looks right now we might finish the month somewhere between +0.5 and +1.0. Just a hair warmer than January 2022. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! Edited January 25, 2023 by MossMan 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Yikes Ridiculous. The joys of social media. What's even worse, those are probably adults, and I can damn well remember when adults never used to act like this, or how we've seen them this progressively worsen the past 10 years online. Just the way it is. Those kind of people know there are no repercussions for anything they say, and on social media there isn't. Hiding behind a screen of anonymity and feeling entitled due to no consequences. 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 35 minutes 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS It was a nice run. 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! This could be a tough one north of Longview. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It was a nice run. This could be a tough one north of Longview. Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here… Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm… Edited January 25, 2023 by MossMan 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, MossMan said: Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here… Jeez. How much snow did you end up with that month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here… Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm… i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here… Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm… The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Jeez. How much snow did you end up with that month? About 36” when all was said and done. And that at 280’ ASL. There was even more where I live now at 580’. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Icon off to a good start. 6 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. Think I ended up with about 3” that day though it’s fuzzy. I only have pics well into the event where I was already buried. I do have this though! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008 SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS- WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA- TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA- 359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF SUB-FREEZING AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE NORTH AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 You guys beat me to it. 00z ICON bit further southwest with the arctic trough might be colder and snowier. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 hours ago, MossMan said: Road trip to Maine! Funny I was just looking at the Maine coast on google earth. I would love living there. Dämn. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This could be a tough one north of Longview. After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, RentonHill said: i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol Well I would take 3” going onto this…Like what I got on that date! Though I am seeing a lot of Euro maps as showing zilch up here. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 00z GFS HR 6! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine You will at least get Kold. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine Speak for yourself buddy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Icon is legit. 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I asked my Cat if she wanted to go ahead and take over running the 00z GFS tonight, but she just looked at me and licked her butt. I guess you're stuck with me tonight. 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Speak for yourself buddy November 29th-December 4th was pretty solid here with snow every day for 6 days straight. Then a significant arctic blast with close to 1” of snow 12/20-12/23. We’ve had 6” of snow already this season so if we get nothing I’m happy with how it played out. We still could get surprised by this pattern though and get some snow but I don’t think so. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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