Doinko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 58 minutes ago, Deweydog said: One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now. The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas. I checked the NWS PNS from that, looks like we had around 3.5"? That would be very nice. Was that the event Clark County missed out on? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend) Cut-off/Kona low several notches to the west 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 2 (4-run trend) Hmmm.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 IR/WV Imagery, 00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis Somehow I missed this massive 943mb(27.85 in) low near Kamchatka. Impressive. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Uh oh… Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 3 (4-run trend) base of the block several notches south with more width overall. Kona low further west. Aleutian low several notches stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Where exactly is the block going? Weird seeing it so much further south. Aleutian ridge healthy and seeming to merge with the block. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 4 (4-run trend) Block is enormous this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Where exactly is the block going? Weird seeing it so much further south. Aleutian ridge healthy and seeming to merge with the block. I can tell you what the result short term is going to be… 1 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Colder shot, less snow. Let’s see the implications later on. 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Not sure what to make with the southern shift of the block. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Absolutely no doubt in terms of snow.  But the Twin Cities is better for cold.  The average today (near the depth of winter cold) in Buffalo is 31/18 while its 23/8 in Minneapolis.  I was talking to my sales guy in Minneapolis today during a meeting, and he told us how the rest of the season goes there....They are of course cold now, then in February they will have 1-2 weeks where it won't get much above zero, then in March they get absolutely buried in snow. If you like snow and cold, sounds like the place to be! Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station:  https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Not sure what to make with the southern shift of the block. Less likely to be undercut? 2 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 24 minutes ago, Doinko said: I checked the NWS PNS from that, looks like we had around 3.5"? That would be very nice. Was that the event Clark County missed out on? Yeah, we got downsloped pretty hard. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Way less snow 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 5 (4-run trend) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Way less snow There goes 2008. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Gem is going to be cold. 5 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 6 (4-run trend) Outstanding run to run consistency. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 00z GEM HR 102 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 4.5 (4-run trend) Not sure what to make with the southern shift of the block. Pure uninformed speculation here, but it feels like the block looks a little more stable in this position. I think I like that change. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Definitely not throwing this run out or anything because I suppose it could happen, but that run to run fluctuation is pretty odd 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 GFS Op Day 3+ is a blindfolded lost puppy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 00z GEM Day 5 850s 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEM Day 5 850s Gets even colder after. Wow this run is cold 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 TOUCHDOWNÂ 6 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 GFS Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Requiem said: Definitely not throwing this run out or anything because I suppose it could happen, but that run to run fluctuation is pretty odd We can expect anywhere from 0-25 inches of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Requiem said: Definitely not throwing this run out or anything because I suppose it could happen, but that run to run fluctuation is pretty odd For the GFS flailing wildly in the 4-7 day period is the new normal. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Lovely overrunning event on this run after the cold is already in place. Tasty! 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 00z GEM HR 126 850s -18c PDX 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Warms up doe 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Wow. GEM is a legit blast. 6 2 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 No model agreement after Day 3 with the 00z GFS, GEM. Volatility is increasing with this pattern. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: No model agreement after Day 3 with the 00z GFS, GEM. Volatility is increasing with this pattern. I feel like aside from the GFS the GEM, Euro and ICON all are in decent agreement. Just the GFS all on its own 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Whatcom special at 192hr 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Anyone staying up til 1:30 for the Euro? 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 It's just been sitting up there taunting us for several frames now. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Lovely overrunning event on this run after the cold is already in place. Tasty! Not a great spot for the low placement, but it could maybe give a few inches before a changeover. Still a better option than the depressing ECMWF set up that gives no snow. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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