SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 boring ridge drifts over us with slow moderating. Hopefully the next few days we'll see a change with an undercutting system for snow! I don’t hate it. We d see cold nights and slow moderation during the day. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Had 42/32 today. Cloudy all day and nice. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 A reminder the euro and gem are likely way too aggressive with those 850mb temps in this range. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 9'er 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 this D**n thing is going to end trending as cold as the December shot, or at least close 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er That’s like a 45/22 day at SLE. Not bad. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: this D**n thing is going to end trending as cold as the December shot, or at least close Depends on the metric. This outbreak as progged will not have Omak advecting to near 0. Not even close. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 boring ridge drifts over us with slow moderating. Hopefully the next few days we'll see a change with an undercutting system for snow! Hate it when we slowly moderate out of the cold. A good overrunning event has not happened in ages. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Day 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: Depends on the metric. This outbreak as progged will not have Omak advecting to near 0. Not even close. seems to maybe be coming from a different trajectory? I know over here we get coldest when our blast comes down the Purcell trench from the NE, not from the North that gets Omak coldest. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Hate it when we slowly moderate out of the cold. A good overrunning event has not happened in ages. Less than two years ago. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Phishy Wx said: seems to maybe be coming from a different trajectory? I know over here we get coldest when our blast comes down the Purcell trench from the NE, not from the North that gets Omak coldest. Yeah, this is a direct-to-basin event. I wouldn’t call it a straight up backdoor event, although it is more likely to morph into that in the next couple days compared to something more north/south. As opposed to the last several events, teleconnections with this are ripe for the short wave to expand and dig directly over us. 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Could definitely be some teens west side though 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Could definitely be some teens west side though You should get a nice dump of snow up there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looks like this may be a waste of cold air (for snow fans). Real bummer 2 2 1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 I'm thinking if the cold setup is short lived the chances are high we will get hit again later in Feb. SSW will probably reap benefits later on. This ECMWF isn't too bad though. Stays pretty chilly with an inversionary type pattern after the big cold shot. A little bit of snow in there after the cold is in place as well. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, JW8 said: Looks like this may be a waste of cold air (for snow fans). Real bummer No matter what I'm thrilled to see a legit cold pattern in late January. I'm going to enjoy the cold! 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Still a chance this thing will get extended over the next couple of days too. 7 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 low expectations but throw a surprise at us nature 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 This feels a bit like December with models trending colder and colder. At least the ECMWF/EPS and GEM/CMCE are doing so. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: This feels a bit like December with models trending colder and colder. At least the ECMWF/EPS and GEM/CMCE are doing so. December looked really amazing at one point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 The December thing was extremely unsatisfying, so I hope we can squeeze out a little snow and a few days of cold lows from this. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Doinko said: Mark Nelsen's thoughts That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess. 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 43 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er Anyone else see an Eagle in this image? 1 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said: Anyone else see an Eagle in this image? I'm not sure. Top left? .... Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 59 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 EPS is even colder than the 12z. Very impressive. 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess. That's cold for the west side. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I'm not sure. Top left? .... Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 59 minutes Haha sorry it's a sports reference with the 49ers playing the Eagles for the NFC Championship. Thank you for sharing the run with us Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: EPS is even colder than the 12z. Very impressive. Yes it is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That's cold for the west side. I like snow best. But I'm becoming more and more of a cold lover these days. I still like the house to torch inside in the winter. 2 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Haha sorry it's a sports reference with the 49ers playing the Eagles for the NFC Championship. Thank you for sharing the run with us No problem. Yeah it should be an incredible game, but I give the edge to Philly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Not sure if this was mentioned and im like 10 pages behind. But the JMA was rather gfs like for the middle of next week, with bitter cold over BC and N Washington and an active storm track plowing into Oregon. 6 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Not sure if this was mentioned and im like 10 pages behind. But the JMA was rather gfs like for the middle of next week, with bitter cold over BC and N Washington and an active storm track plowing into Oregon. That would be awesome. Very snowy for PDX. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 06z GFS showing no snow through day 10 after the snow Saturday night. 1 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 CFS has been consistently over it after the warmup by next weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 So while this isn’t a true SSW, the PV will be taking body blows and weakening steadily over the next 2 weeks. So the pattern will likely improve next month. And ironically it was the crappy January pattern which helped produce the wave activity fluxes responsible for the W1 response/early demise of the vortex. So yes, there are benefits to the Aleutian low pattern! Often times it’s the progressive +PNA type patterns that produce the best upward wave driving from the NPAC conduit, which ends up disrupting the vortex and bringing about a colder pattern down the road. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 50 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: CFS has been consistently over it after the warmup by next weekend If the CFS is predicting a blowtorch, all the more reason to expect a cold pattern. That model is literally useless. Serves no purpose at all. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Wow this place is dead. Except for the east coast weenie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Some meteograms from overnight... in order of update 00Z EPS, 06Z GFS, and 06Z GEFS. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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