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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z EPS looks like heights bit lower and arctic trough digs out touch more holds over us longer. 850s might be a slight notch colder. Would like to see the arctic trough dig a bit further offshore for more over-water-trajectory.

12z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

Mean drops to -12.1 on the 6z, similar to 00z

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Some meteograms from overnight... in order of update 00Z EPS, 06Z GFS, and 06Z GEFS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4604800 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4626400 (1).png

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4626400 (1).png

Still looking more impressive down in Oregon than up here…they should manage sub freezing highs and probably some snow. Doesn’t look like we will manage sub freezing highs up here and snows less likely. They’re due down there! 

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4 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

06z GFS showing no snow through day 10 after the snow Saturday night.

B0796556-301E-4FF0-A036-249EF9C2FE81.png

Add that to what the 00Z Euro modelled and it's really shaping up to be a dry (or mostly dry) blast :(. Maybe things will change but as of right now this is where model consensus is trending.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

🌭 As W7ENK once posted on the old Fox 12 blog, getting an arctic front without snow is a little like taking a bottle of Dom Perignon and emptying it into the toilet.

Euro and GFS have a good 1-2" for me so it doesn't look completely dry here at least

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I guess the consolation is that I did pretty well in November and December.

Won’t even be able to make a Frostman with the low DP’s…The empty landscape will just have that dehydrated look to it for a few days instead. And my dogs walking on frozen non snow covered grass should finish off my yard by destroying what’s left of the grass…Exciting!!! 
 

I really need an attitude adjustment. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is your dog doing a number two in that picture?

Nothing yet at picture time…#1 was a few moments later. She was just not happy to be out in 40 degree drizzle after being in her cozy bed inside. But she is 16 now and needs to go out a lot lol. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z GFS is a little drier and faster with the front on Saturday... seems that things have been trending colder faster which also means drier.    This is total snow with the weekend system.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5047600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Won’t even be able to make a Frostman with the low DP’s…The empty landscape will just have that dehydrated look to it for a few days instead. And my dogs walking on frozen non snow covered grass should finish off my yard by destroying what’s left of the grass…Exciting!!! 
 

I really need an attitude adjustment. 

Dismissing the 0z gfs. It was very snowy. Showed almost 40” here. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is a little drier and faster with the front on Saturday... seems that things have been trending colder faster which also means drier.    This is total snow with the weekend system.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5047600.png

GFS is way warmer than other models with the blast. Wonder which models will cave

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS is way warmer than other models with the blast. Wonder which models will cave

So strange for the GFS to be the more muted model in terms of cold.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This will be nothing like December up here. Between the lack of moisture and temps in the low to mid 30’s for highs and lows in the lower 20’s it will be at least 10-15 degrees warmer than last month’s festivities here. 
 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 hours ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

Screenshot_20230124_205356_YouTube.jpg

I  find it very interesting that Mark would even put that bottom thought out there.  He's really good not going too far out on a limb esp one that most of the time will get sawed off.  Just the fact that he's mentioned this "small possibility" twice, two days in a row now means he really has his eye on it.  For him to make it worth mentioning when the majority of the time "pipe busting cold" as he called it doesn't come to fruition, I find it really interesting.  Can't wait to see if he sticks with it as a possibility.  He just doesn't do that.

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

🌭 As W7ENK once posted on the old Fox 12 blog, getting an arctic front without snow is a little like taking a bottle of Dom Perignon and emptying it into the toilet.

I disagree. In fact I’d say deep cold is more elusive than snow in the PNW. At the end of the day I can drive an hour and a half east and be in more snow than most places can dream of.

PDX is also in its longest streak on record without a sub-20 low, so hopefully it finally ends.

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET just came in and snowfall with the Arctic front is more widespread. Very cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings.

AE203998-2F21-4F9E-B450-B78A65586100.thumb.png.25e2a6a3cf84adc1cc305ad823b3d206.png0FBF27B5-5D1D-4FE4-8E44-EFC5B9A85687.thumb.png.b65e6f394aa1fa00d0eef14ba32cc1bf.png665D9D25-5EF3-43B1-8969-6D4A87A46B7E.thumb.png.c62f3ef594b068216312275e6fc79a45.png

 

Wonderful news having the UKMET on board. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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