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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

4D8AA2CF-67ED-439C-B676-AD948F90F0A1.png

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

It's short, not that impressive and no snow. I am usually optimistic but there is no optimistic angle right now. Other than hoping for something later on.

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It's quick, not that impressive and no snow. I am usually optimistic but there is no optimistic angle right now. Other than hoping for something later on.

EPS, Euro, GEM and CMCE show the coldest airmass for us since December 2013 with 850s -12 to -15c.

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4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Didn’t the Puget Sound area see some decent snow events in Late November and December? 

Speaking honestly, the Tacoma-Seattle area did not get hit too hard. We did get a couple nights with some wet slop, but nothing sticking around for more than 12 hours. Lynwood north and south of Tacoma each had their own decent snow event. Still grateful for what I got, and honestly I don't care if I get any snow this round. The cold is the main story and I'm happy to follow that.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

I would love to see some snow too but for cold this seems decently impressive, especially since we've not seen anything in this timeframe in a while. It's also just been one morning of runs that were a minor setback for cold/snow. Plenty of time for models to trend better the next few days

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Speaking honestly, the Tacoma-Seattle area did not get hit too hard. We did get a couple nights with some wet slop, but nothing sticking around for more than 12 hours. Lynwood north and south of Tacoma each had their own decent snow event. Still grateful for what I got, and honestly I don't care if I get any snow this round. The cold is the main story and I'm happy to follow that.

I was gone during the biggest event in Bothell, which was 3 inches.

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Really not all that much has changed? Sure, there doesn't seem to be much of a super big overrunning event unfortunately, but things get solidly cold with at least a bit of snow in the air. I'll be enjoying it all the same. I swear some here have become a little (dare I say it) spoiled with this run of genuinely great winters up north that they forget that cold and dry or warm and rainy has been a pretty frequent solution down this way.

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--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

It’ll be a hearty air mass. I’d guess at this point that things will verify around -10c or so given the now short term trends, basically around “normal” for a splitty blast with excellent anomaly placement.

The forum is dominated by those from the Puget Sound though and dry cold doesn’t go over well with most of them. Understandable, to each their own…

Edited by Deweydog
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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, umadbro said:

Clear and cold is just that. It’s not exciting. When it snows, there’s so many things you can do. Cold without snow is pretty pointless.

exactly. and it seems we either get our fix out of the way off the bat like we did this winter or we wait patiently until the razor edge of winter being over. I really want to believe right now but I just can't 😔

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6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Really not all that much has changed? Sure, there doesn't seem to be much of a super big overrunning event unfortunately, but things get solidly cold with at least a bit of snow in the air. I'll be enjoying it all the same. I swear some here have become a little (dare I say it) spoiled with this run of genuinely great winters up north that they forget that cold and dry or warm and rainy has been a pretty frequent solution down this way.

I will confess to having been spoiled by back-to-back winters that featured a nice snowfall right as the arctic front swept in (one of them on Christmas Eve and morning, and the other with thundersnow). Dry blasts are as you say quite a common pattern.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Have no fear, long range snow maps are here.

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-instant_ptype-1674669600-1675598400-1675641600-40.gif

What’s the one thing we were missing with this current blast? GFS never showed anything in the long range. Feels like our last few solid events GFS was consistently showing snowstorms in the long range even when it’s upper level pattern was different every run

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7 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Clear and cold is just that. It’s not exciting. When it snows, there’s so many things you can do. Cold without snow is pretty pointless.

At this stage, I am already making plans to take advantage of a clear, crisp Sunday in which the normally muddy trails at this time of year are frozen solid. Not as fun as a snow day but I will take what I can get.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

So true Jesse I noticed this too they really get jazzed over those maps even though sometimes they don’t happen in real life haha those guys are you having a good day

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

It’ll be a hearty air mass. I’d guess at this point that things will verify around -10c or so giving the now short term trends, around “normal” with a splitty blast with excellent anomaly placement.

The forum is dominated by those from the Puget Sound though and dry cold doesn’t go over well with most of them. Understandable, to each their own…

I have heard far more lamenting from Oregon posters about us Sounders than actual complaints about missing out on snow.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, icyasf said:

I can never tell if Corvallis is a victim of terrain bleed or not on these maps.

We both are.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I have heard far more lamenting from Oregon posters about us Sounders than actual complaints about missing out on snow.

Neither “side” will ever nerd out quite right according to the other.

I’d be up for meeting at a centralized location (Centralia?) for an end-all-be-all badminton tourney to settle the score. Just will need to wait for February snows to break.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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