RentonHill Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Getting “warning shot” vibes we will see 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 When there's almost no room to underperform overperforming is a good bet! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 44 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Me trying to figure out how big of a snowman I can build with .1" of snow. I once built a 7' tall snowman with 0.5". It took a lot of work and basically all the snow from the yard (and it was pretty cone shaped), but it showed it was possible! 2 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 I'm pretty happy with the one snow event we had in December. If we didn't get any snow up here for the rest of the winter and areas south got some it would make me happy. However, I would love to see the cold onshore flow turn on sometime in the next couple weeks. Let's bury the mountains before the tap runs dry in a couple months! 6 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 (edited) 45/39 day here with overcast skies. Did a nice wintertime walk at Steigerwald Lake wildlife refuge this afternoon. Birds are pretty active down there at the moment, even saw a couple of bald eagles. Caught a sliver of pink sunset at the end. Edited January 26, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx 8 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Weenie Wednesday 1 7 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 34 minutes ago, Doinko said: 1/10/2017 or 2/12/1995 style overperformance?? Not 1/10/17, but 2/12/95 is a closer match although the models have edged away from a more dynamic, closed vort. 2/12/95 was pretty explosive and had a vertically-stacked aspect with a sub-530dm vort/surface low combo. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Was much more spectacular in person…But that was quite the color hue a bit ago! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Not 1/10/17, but 2/12/95 is a closer match although the models have edged away from a more dynamic, closed vort. 2/12/95 was pretty explosive and had a vertically-stacked aspect with a sub-530dm vort/surface low combo. What happened in 1989? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What happened in 1989? The Berlin Wall came down... of course. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Not 1/10/17, but 2/12/95 is a closer match although the models have edged away from a more dynamic, closed vort. 2/12/95 was pretty explosive and had a vertically-stacked aspect with a sub-530dm vort/surface low combo. Hoping next few days trend better for that, either way looks like a fun airmass coming up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Was much more spectacular in person…But that was quite the color hue a bit ago! Same thing happened here... the mid level deck of clouds that moved in this afternoon turned purplish at sunset. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What happened in 1989? Your mom and I went to DEI training together and things got interesting. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Think I’m going to bundle up on Saturday night, drive up the Fraser Valley, and take advantage of the forecast clear conditions to try and catch a glimpse of Comet ZTF. https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/spot-circumpolar-comet-ztf-c-2022-e3-in-binoculars/ (Has already brightened more than forecast and is now a dim naked-eye object.) 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 18z EPS unfortunately looks a bit worse 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Your mom and I went to DEI training together and things got interesting. Amen and awomen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Doinko said: Hoping next few days trend better for that, either way looks like a fun airmass coming up Should be some fun advection to track at the very least. I’m pretty skeptical about some of the colder runs though given the facts heights only get down to just below 540dm. Historically, it’s pretty tough to get anything colder than about -10 or -11 with that kind of upper level support. Edited January 26, 2023 by Deweydog 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Weenie Wednesday (c)Andrew 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1/20/08 is actually a really good analog from a 500mb perspective. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Looks like PDX still gets a dusting. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Max snow depth from each event so far this season. Been okayish, but still waiting for the “big one”! One foot or bust! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Low 21F and a High of 52F for the day. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 00Z NAM 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 It’s easy to forget that it’s still only late January. Still a chance for something to develop sometime in mid February or early March even. Right now it looks like a typical pattern following the cold shot starting mid next week. In December we only had to wait 2 weeks until the next event started maybe we luck out again. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 47/42 today…although we may get a midnight low. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It’s easy to forget that it’s still only late January. Still a chance for something to develop sometime in mid February or early March even. Right now it looks like a typical pattern following the cold shot starting mid next week. In December we only had to wait 2 weeks until the next event started maybe we luck out again. Did you not see the title for the forecast contest thread? 1 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Did you not see the title for the forecast contest thread? Lol, what are your thoughts on another cold pattern developing sometime in the next 3-5 weeks? Based on the models it looks pretty unlikely through atleast February 10th (probably). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 ICON appears wetter and slower with the cold air, looks better for PDX snow 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 00z GFS in 14 minutes It's now or never if we are to see the chances of snow increase for this weekend. The arctic trough is modeled to drop south in 66-72 hours. That is still plenty of time to develop more favorable trends. Do I expect it? No, but it's not impossible. Ya gotta believe!!!! Oh, and in case you are new here, we will ALWAYS.... Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Some of this would probably be snow 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Looks like Mark is going with no highs below 35 or lows below 20 at PDX for this one. 1 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Looks like Mark is going with no highs below 35 or lows below 20 at PDX for this one. Sounds about right. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Sounds about right. 20F will remain their glass floor for this winter. 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Name that movie! I remember watching this classic with my dad on a snowy January 1996 day! Speaking of that event…The majority of the snow that fell during that event was not really forecasted until a day or two out if I remember correctly! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 My reaction after seeing Day 3 to 5. THEN my reaction after seeing Day 7-10. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, MossMan said: Name that movie! I remember watching this classic with my dad on a snowy January 1996 day! Speaking of that event…The majority of the snow that fell during that event was not really forecasted until a day or two out if I remember correctly! Duel 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Mossman bring it on. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 7:40 PM UPDATE: GFS not running yet. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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