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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think it was actually snowing here right now in 2021. We had about 4” on Jan 26/27th that year. 

I had massive accumulations on the 25th! 

1EDCBE07-1AE5-4763-AF7C-93BD2D605142.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Why post it? We all know it's crap.

Sucks we couldn’t even get a slushy inch out of this massive failure of an event. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Just so everyone knows I want a lot more than a slushy inch. It's just what some local mets say to downplay a snow event.

Would drive me crazy back in the day when Rich Marriott would use that term! Still remember November 1996 when he insisted that western Wa would get no more than a slushy inch that would be gone by late morning that one snowy early morning. Can’t remember the exact date but that slushy inch ended up being 8” lovely inches up here, even downtown Seattle got several inches…It was amazing! The low tracked south of Olympia which it wasn’t supposed to do apparently. 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Just so everyone knows I want a lot more than a slushy inch. It's just what some local mets say to downplay a snow event.

Way things have gone with the recent event, if anyone scores a slushy inch they will be pleased with the overperformance.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

it's over

No... but spending any time analyzing GFS runs after about day 7 is truly an exercise in futility without ensemble support.    About as meaningful as 544 hour CFS maps.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No... but spending any time analyzing GFS runs after about day 7 is truly an exercise in futility without ensemble support.    About as meaningful as 544 hour CFS maps.  

WHY WEREN’T WE TOLD ABOUT THIS EARLIER???

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sucks we couldn’t even get a slushy inch out of this massive failure of an event. 

Is it really a "massive failure" or just a normal weather pattern?  Models showed a marginal setup 4+ days out...we all know better than to hope for something that doesn't show wide agreement across models and isn't happening within 72 hours. 

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1 minute ago, thickhog said:

Is it really a "massive failure" or just a normal weather pattern?  Models showed a marginal setup 4+ days out...we all know better than to hope for something that doesn't show wide agreement across models and isn't happening within 72 hours. 

It's close enough that it was a tease.

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4 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

It was too far out to get very invested, but it's still a bummer. After really missing out on our first event, it's looking like winter may end up being a dud here in The Swamp. 

The swamp had a good 1-3in event earlier this year. 

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1 minute ago, thickhog said:

One of the leading experts on the Cascadia quake is (or was?) a professor at Oregon State. I heard him give a talk on the topic once and was blown away by how absolutely ****ed our region is when (not if) the next one hits.

I have a place in Ocean Shores, and the city council there just rejected $12 million in federal funding to build a tsunami tower. Primarily because the residents are flat out grumpy and unhappy with government as a whole.  

Ocean Shores is absolutely doomed in a quake.  Even for residents near the entrance to the peninsula it's a 20+ minute drive to safety, and there is a single road leading out of the peninsula anyway. Rejecting a tsunami tower is literally accepting death for every single resident when a Cascadia quake occurs.

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3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Just kind of a rudderless, low-impact pattern. On the bright side it’s at least kind of a clean slate for those hoping something will pop off all of the sudden. Vastly different from the end of last month when it was pretty obvious we were locking in for while.

On that image, the Greenland/NE Canada vortex is exactly where we need the blocking to be to suppress cold into SW Canada.

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11 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

I have a place in Ocean Shores, and the city council there just rejected $12 million in federal funding to build a tsunami tower. Primarily because the residents are flat out grumpy and unhappy with government as a whole.  

Ocean Shores is absolutely doomed in a quake.  Even for residents near the entrance to the peninsula it's a 20+ minute drive to safety, and there is a single road leading out of the peninsula anyway. Rejecting a tsunami tower is literally accepting death for every single resident when a Cascadia quake occurs.

My Aunt & Uncle live there. Yeah you'd have to go north on 115, then east on 109 quickly with a logjam of traffic. It would be a disaster situation.

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The year 536 AD sounds amazing for snow lovers. I prefer a huge eruption over a quake. 

Climate historians believe that this major cooling that began in 536AD occurred because of a massive volcanic eruption. This would account for the descriptions of dark skies and the subsequent cooling of the Earth for about 18 months. Temperatures fell by 2.5°C. It even snowed in China during the summer

https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive

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10 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Yeah.  Still feels like kind of a dud--so many other areas got pounded, just not here!

Standards have changed as our climate has cooled. It’s been several years since we’ve seen an outright regional dud. Portions have dudded, but many have dodged the duddereenoness.

When the next when peels off, it’s gonna BURN.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

My Aunt & Uncle live there. Yeah you'd have to go north on 115, then east on 109 quickly with a logjam of traffic. It would be a disaster situation.

And to humanize it a little, I was staying at my OS place when the Tonga eruption occurred and there was a significant timeframe where the Tsunami Center did not know whether or not there was going to be a tsunami, and the clock was ticking.  That feeling of uncertainty and anxiety is foreign, until it suddenly is not. 

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11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The year 536 AD sounds amazing for snow lovers. I prefer a huge eruption over a quake. 

Climate historians believe that this major cooling that began in 536AD occurred because of a massive volcanic eruption. This would account for the descriptions of dark skies and the subsequent cooling of the Earth for about 18 months. Temperatures fell by 2.5°C. It even snowed in China during the summer

https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive

That would be seriously depressing and very disruptive to all human life in terms of food production.

The headline literally says it would be the worst year to be alive.  😀

    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Wunder if anyone is gonna give the ol’ GFS a little credit on this one? I’d say it was pretty clear it was the most consistent over the last few days as all others slowly capitulated.

Yeah, it didn't show 850s down to -16c to -18c like the Euro and GEM did. I think it did the best comparatively outside some of the crazy runs after 5 days or so.

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16 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

And to humanize it a little, I was staying at my OS place when the Tonga eruption occurred and there was a significant timeframe where the Tsunami Center did not know whether or not there was going to be a tsunami, and the clock was ticking.  That feeling of uncertainty and anxiety is foreign, until it suddenly is not. 

Even with light/normal traffic it's 24 minutes(roughly) to western Hoquiam and 29 minutes(roughly) to cross the Hoquiam River into Aberdeen and nearly 40 minutes to get onto Highway 12 east. Depending on how quickly the tsunami and water rises rush into Gray's Harbor neither town would be in the clear.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 2 minutes

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54 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Is it really a "massive failure" or just a normal weather pattern?  Models showed a marginal setup 4+ days out...we all know better than to hope for something that doesn't show wide agreement across models and isn't happening within 72 hours. 

I was more excited for the arctic blast potential that the GEM and Euro were showing. I think I probably was more invested in the potential because the GFS was the warmer one, but it looks like it was actually right. I think I shouldn't discount it as much next time.

Hoping for some better snow chances into February, west side of Portland has really been screwed the past few years.

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Kinda surprised 

Currently 41 with a DP of 34

 

ISSUED: 3:03 PM JAN. 26, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST FRIDAY... *

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on the Palouse. *

WHERE...Genesee, Davenport, Moscow, Plummer, Coeur d'Alene, Hayden, Oakesdale, Cheney, Fairfield, Post Falls, Potlatch, Rockford, Spokane Valley, Tekoa, Airway Heights, Downtown Spokane, Worley, and Rosalia.

* WHEN...From Midnight tonight to Noon PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions during the morning commute especially on untreated roads and side streets.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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Just now, Terreboner2 said:

I would move honestly.  That area, outside of Cooper Mt., just plainly sucks.  A short move to either there or somewhere at least halfway up the foothills, would increase your quality of life immensely.  Hell, move over here.  We get many chances of snow, even in a crappy year.

Some of us have legitimate excuses for not being able to move, and I get that.  But, you only live once, and if you love snow as much as I'm sure you do, then it would be in your best interest to pick up and go!

The lack of snow has been annoying and I love to see snow when it happens but I don't think I'd move because of it. This area did well in 2016/2017 (~18") and 2013/2014 (probably around 10"), and about equal to PDX the other winters except for 2020/2021. 
Not as bad here as it has been in Tigard/Beaverton areas probably

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