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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Standards have changed as our climate has cooled. It’s been several years since we’ve seen an outright regional dud. Portions have dudded, but many have dodged the duddereenoness.

When the next when peels off, it’s gonna BURN.

The arctic airmass says otherwise, but if this is it then the lack of snow here this winter kinda reeks of a dud. Mixed messages. Dud-ley do right.

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Kinda surprised 

Currently 41 with a DP of 34

 

ISSUED: 3:03 PM JAN. 26, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST FRIDAY... *

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on the Palouse. *

WHERE...Genesee, Davenport, Moscow, Plummer, Coeur d'Alene, Hayden, Oakesdale, Cheney, Fairfield, Post Falls, Potlatch, Rockford, Spokane Valley, Tekoa, Airway Heights, Downtown Spokane, Worley, and Rosalia.

* WHEN...From Midnight tonight to Noon PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions during the morning commute especially on untreated roads and side streets.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

This from Spokane NWS. Sounds promising.

Friday Night: A strong arctic front will push into north Idaho 
overnight Friday and sweep across eastern and central Washington 
Saturday morning.

For PDX metro we'll have to see how aggressively the arctic air blasts into the Columbia Basin.

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Randle just to the east does really well I'm seeing 65" of snow annually?

Seems a little high, that may be mixing their snowfall with their precip average. I know they are slightly lower elevation than Morton but can probably benefit slightly from being further east and even occasionally seeing outflow down the Cowlitz River over White Pass. Packwood can most definitely see that as well and with a deep enough cold pool can rip off some pretty nice cold numbers in spite of their relatively low elevation west of the crest.

Edited by BLI snowman
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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems a little high, that maybe mixing their snowfall with their precip average. I know they are slightly lower elevation than Morton but can probably benefit slightly from being further east and even occasionally seeing outflow down the Cowlitz River over White Pass. Packwood can most definitely see that as well and with a deep enough cold pool can rip off some pretty nice cold numbers in spite of their relatively low elevation west of the crest.

Awesome. Thanks. Seems like decent moving destinations.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems a little high, that may be mixing their snowfall with their precip average. I know they are slightly lower elevation than Morton but can probably benefit slightly from being further east and even occasionally seeing outflow down the Cowlitz River over White Pass. Packwood can most definitely see that as well and with a deep enough cold pool can rip off some pretty nice cold numbers in spite of their relatively low elevation west of the crest.

From the WRCC site, looks like they pulled off 52" of snow in February 1990! And lows in the 20s every month of the year. And 108.5" of snow in 2008-09

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5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Awesome. Thanks. Seems like decent moving destinations.

It's a nice area being so nestled in between St. Helens, Rainier, and the Goat Rocks. I've spent a little time up there on hiking excursions. Outside of the Olympic Peninsula, it feels like probably the most remote part of western WA. 

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So we're not going to see the Cold and SNOW we were hoping for, but on the brighter side of things It will be REALLY nice to get out of this gray gloom muck. REALLY NICE! Bright sunshine on the way. That in itself is going to be outstanding.
00z NAM in 1 hour 12 minutes
(Who's staying up?)
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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:
So we're not going to see the Cold and SNOW we were hoping for, but on the brighter side of things It will be REALLY nice to get out of this gray gloom muck. REALLY NICE! Bright sunshine on the way. That in itself is going to be outstanding.
00z NAM in 1 hour 12 minutes
(Who's staying up?)

Really just interested to see if improvements of 18z GEFS continue.

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I live in McMinnville. We have had exactly 0.00" of snow this year. It was a bit cooler than normal for a few days back in December. WTF?

I can't think of a single positive thing to say about this absolute dud of a winter. 

In my book this is the most boring winter of any since I moved here ten years ago.

Just let it end.

I know some jack@ss is going to either point out the realities of the region we live in, tell me to move, or point out some other winter that was somehow worse.

Don't be that jack@a**.

I am just venting as I shift my mindset to spring. 

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30 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The arctic airmass says otherwise, but if this is it then the lack of snow here this winter kinda reeks of a dud. Mixed messages. Dud-ley do right.

I don’t think a 1991-92/2002-03 and a winter during which PDX had a day with a 25 degree maxima can be considered to be on the same level.

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29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty good, relative to the Portland and Seattle areas. Probably close to 20" per winter. They are around 950'. They also have a bowling alley there.

I was just there earlier this month. That town is depressing AF. Pe Ell level stuff.

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think a 1991-92/2002-03 and a winter during which PDX had a day with a 25 degree maxima can be considered to be on the same level.

No, but 2019-20 was just recently pretty historically mild with no highs below 40 at PDX (slightly snowier though!!). So maybe not too due for another performance like that just yet, even if we haven't hit the coveted snowless/sub-40 maximumless jackpot very recently.

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8 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

All this "good places to move for snow" talk.  I'm just amazed at the amount of snow Leavenworth gets at 1200' elevation.

Must have to do with the Stevens or Snoqualmie gaps??  Something that allows that precipitation to survive across those mountains?  Or iss it because of more persistent easterly flow in that region?  I'm intrigued.

Totally different world east of the crest. Leavenworth benefits from that. And they get a ton of cold air damming being in a narrow valley (one that takes a strong pressure gradient to scour out) that is banked right up against the mountains. And they are also just west enough to not be super duper rain shadowed.

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9 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

All this "good places to move for snow" talk.  I'm just amazed at the amount of snow Leavenworth gets at 1200' elevation.

Must have to do with the Stevens or Snoqualmie gaps??  Something that allows that precipitation to survive across those mountains?  Or is it because of more persistent easterly flow in that region?  I'm intrigued.

It’s at 1200 feet on the east slopes of the Cascade.  
 

This old logging road behind my house is at 1600 feet on the west slopes of the Cascades. I go up there a lot and there is almost always snow on the ground. I’ve seen snow up there in May. I’m sure it easily surpasses 100-150 inches a winter. 

FA62F150-6B5E-4699-81F5-C9C80555D39C.thumb.jpeg.5636fa84e98204c006feb368566ddd62.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No, but 2019-20 was just recently pretty historically mild with no highs below 40 at PDX (slightly snowier though!!). So maybe not too due for another performance like that just yet, even if we haven't hit the coveted snowless/sub-40 maximumless jackpot very recently.

2019-20 would definitely qualify for public assistance down here, although still not a completely flakeless waste. It snowed the night we got our Xmas tree AND in January. Tons of room for subjectivity!

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2019-20 would definitely qualify for public assistance down here, although still not a completely flakeless waste. It snowed the night we got our Xmas tree AND in January. Tons of room for subjectivity!

I made some decent snowballs on Pi Day!

Flakeless is a pretty low hole for even our deepest excrement to reach. 2002-03 and 1991-92 pulled it off. I think 1982-83 and 1925-26 did it before them. Otherwise not a lot of competition here in that regard, and all of those were moderate to strong Ninos (which we haven't had recently). Even the legendary 1933-34 winter managed some slush.

Edited by BLI snowman
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3 minutes ago, fubario said:

you know winter is over on this board when ...

- you see the following posts.... earthquakes from 300 yrs ago, dogs playing in snow 4 years ago and Tim posting 90% of the model runs.

It's not nearly over IMO.

Decent cold snap still going to happen and a strong chance of another round in response to SSW completion and favorable MJO.  In fact even the cold snap that is nearly here might be extended a bit now that models have changed to showing the zone 3 MJO being more amplified and more sustained than earlier model runs had indicated.  The 18z GEFS already shows signs of this with a bit of a double dip showing up on the 850 graph as compared to earlier runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I made some decent snowballs on Pi Day!

Flakeless is a pretty low hole for even our deepest excrement to reach. 2002-03 and 1991-92 pulled it off. I think 1982-83 and 1925-26 did it before them. Otherwise not a lot of competition here in that regard, and all of those were moderate to strong Ninos (which we haven't had recently). Even the legendary 1933-34 winter managed some slush.

To me 1991-92 and 2002-03 are on their own pedestal for suck.  Even here we had a couple of days of actual winter in January 2020.  Feb ended up coolish as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not nearly over IMO.

Decent cold snap still going to happen and a strong chance of another round in response to SSW completion and favorable MJO.  In fact even the cold snap that is nearly here might be extended a bit now that models have changed to showing the zone 3 MJO being more amplified and more sustained than earlier model runs had indicated.  The 18z GEFS already shows signs of this with a bit of a double dip showing up on the 850 graph as compared to earlier runs.

I need to see it on the EPS.   The GEFS seems to follow its silly operational run around and is much more variable than the EPS.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Holy shiit!  Ellensburg had a high of 57 today.  That's kind of a shocker, especially in light of the fact we had a surprisingly cool 41/34 here today.  Maybe a little bit of cold air damming along the west slopes of the Cascades.  Quite unusual with a strong surface high sitting over us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Holy shiit!  Ellensburg had a high of 57 today.  That's kind of a shocker, especially in light of the fact we had a surprisingly cool 41/34 here today.  Maybe a little bit of cold air damming along the west slopes of the Cascades.  Quite unusual with a strong surface high sitting over us.

We were stuck in the gunk here too... I think it is cold air damming against Cascades with NW flow aloft.    Really gross set up.   Glad its going away soon.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Regionally, 2022-23 is already several levels above dud. And that's before this upcoming cold spell, which will be better than anything the worst winters produced.

- 8 sub-40 highs at SEA so far

- 2 subfreezing highs, including a 26/18 day

- places like Spokane with one of the coldest Nov/Dec combos outside of 1985

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks like it’s 38F and cloudy. Grateful to have kept things pretty cool thanks to the inversion. A lot nicer than the 60F-burgers and I’m cherishing these cool days because I dread thinking about Jun-Sept…

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I need to see it on the EPS.   The GEFS seems to follow its silly operational run around and is much more variable than the EPS.

If you're referring to the MJO they have a bias corrected version on the MJO website and it's very GFS like.  As for the SSW it's happening.  Something should happen from that a bit later on.

At this point I'm 80% on Feb at least averaging below normal.  How much below is the question.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We were stuck in the gunk here too... I think it is cold air damming against Cascades with NW flow aloft.    Really gross set up.   Glad its going away soon.

Not my favorite either.  I was certainly surprised it ended up this cool today though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If you're referring to the MJO they have a bias corrected version on the MJO website and it's very GFS like.  As for the SSW it's happening.  Something should happen from that a bit later on.

At this point I'm 80% on Feb at least averaging below normal.  How much below is the question.

I was actually referring to the cool down shown on the GEFS.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy shiit!  Ellensburg had a high of 57 today.  That's kind of a shocker, especially in light of the fact we had a surprisingly cool 41/34 here today.  Maybe a little bit of cold air damming along the west slopes of the Cascades.  Quite unusual with a strong surface high sitting over us.

Sensor problems tending north.😢

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Regionally, 2022-23 is already several levels above dud. And that's before this upcoming cold spell, which will be better than anything the worst winters produced.

- 8 sub-40 highs at SEA so far

- 2 subfreezing highs, including a 26/18 day

- places like Spokane with one of the coldest Nov/Dec combos outside of 1985

No question the first half of winter was rock solid for WA.  I'm quite confident the second half will be above dud status as well.  Just no way to make the case the 2016-17 through 2022-23 period has been terrible for winter weather here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not nearly over IMO.

Decent cold snap still going to happen and a strong chance of another round in response to SSW completion and favorable MJO.  In fact even the cold snap that is nearly here might be extended a bit now that models have changed to showing the zone 3 MJO being more amplified and more sustained than earlier model runs had indicated.  The 18z GEFS already shows signs of this with a bit of a double dip showing up on the 850 graph as compared to earlier runs.

I think the writing is in the wall that round 2 will be further east than round 1. GEFS is a much poorer ensemble, so I would bank on the EPS at this point, as much as I wish it wasn't the case.

Oh well, another dud of a January but the late December blast really was special.

 

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